A stalled storm system centered near Galesburg Illinois brought several rounds of showers and embedded thunderstorms to northwest Illinois through the day. These showers and thunderstorms were slow moving westward across the area and were efficient rainfall producers.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS DVN wrote it up.
A stalled storm system centered near Galesburg Illinois brought several rounds of showers and embedded thunderstorms to northwest Illinois through the day. These showers and thunderstorms were slow moving westward across the area and were efficient rainfall producers. Trained spotters reported 2 to 4 inches of rain in Hancock and McDonough Counties that lead to flash flooding from the late morning into the late afternoon.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Quad Cities, IA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 11, 11:21 AM CST, 9 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 1221 PM CDT Sun Jul 11 2021 ...AVIATION UPDATE... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 312 AM CDT Sun Jul 11 2021 Early this morning light to moderate rain was scattered in nature mainly along and east of the Mississippi River. These showers were moving west towards our area. This showers were located under a stalled out upper level and surface low that was located just south of Galesburg. This pattern is expected to continue today as the upper level low is forecast to remain across our area. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight) ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT Sun Jul 11 2021 Key messages: 1. More of the same today with upper level wave still entrenched across the area. 2. Showers will be scattered in nature Discussion: With cutoff low located across the area, chances for rain are tied to the next vort max that pinwheels into the area. Synoptic models agree that the next vortmax will move northwest into the area later this afternoon and into the evening. Most CAMs have the rain south and east of a line from Mineral Point, WI to Tama, Iowa. The FV3 has been a little further north and west with its rainfall. The location of the vortmaxes in the GFS would support a more north and west axis of rain. With the differences in the guidance decided to keep chc to schc pops across the whole CWA. There will be dry times, and wet times. This pattern will continue through the short term and into the beginning of the long term. This means off and on chances for rain. Thunder will be possible, especially during the day today, however for the most part, expect showers. Temperatures will be cooler again today with the low in the area, With 70 forecast at MLI today, and 68 for a record cold high, we will be close to that record. If there are more breaks in the clouds than expected, then we may see slightly warmer temps than forecast. Most areas will see less than a couple tenths of an inch of rain. A band of more consistent rain is expected, especially from RFD to BRL. This area could see up to an inch. With the lighter nature of the rain, little to no impacts are expected from the rain today. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT Sun Jul 11 2021 Key messages: 1. Upper level low remains in place across the area, bringing near daily chances of rain and storms. 2. Low moves out of the area Tuesday into Wednesday, however flow becomes NW and a series of waves are expected to affect the area with potential showers and storms. Discussion: Guidance is in good agreement with the momentum fields as the upper level low is finally ejected out of the area later on the day Monday as another wave approaches from the west. Monday looks to be the same as Sunday with less precip as the overall vort advection around the upper low is limited. Cloud cover may begin to break as well as temps begin to warm up as well. It doesn't take long for a wave train in the NW flow to begin affecting the area. Temps will warm up into the 80s as dewpoints in the upper 60s to 70s move into the area. A more summer like storm pattern will affect the area with each wave leading to afternoon storms that evolve into nocturnal MCSs. The first one could be Wednesday morning. A more robust one is forecast for Thursday. Then the surface boundary stalls south of the area and daily storms look likely to end the week. Towards the end of the period, heavy rain chances look to increase across the area as well. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon) ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT Sun Jul 11 2021 Frequent MVFR to IFR conditions will be seen through the TAF period, as periodic showers and thunderstorms continue to roll through the area. Some LIFR conditions may result in the heaviest rain showers, but left out of TAFs as confidence is low. This will start to change tomorrow, as the upper and surface lows begin to move out of the area. Today, we can see some gusts upwards to 25 KTs is some areas, with constant winds around 10 to 15 KTs. This evening, the winds will die down and stick around 10 KTs through tomorrow. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...NONE. IL...NONE. MO...NONE. && SYNOPSIS...Gibbs SHORT TERM...Gibbs LONG TERM...Gibbs AVIATION...Gunkel
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 319 AM CDT Sun Jul 11 2021 IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007- 009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-120830- Buchanan-Delaware-Dubuque-Benton-Linn-Jones-Jackson-Iowa-Johnson- Cedar-Clinton-Muscatine-Scott-Keokuk-Washington-Louisa-Jefferson- Henry IA-Des Moines-Van Buren-Lee-Jo Daviess-Stephenson-Carroll- Whiteside-Rock Island-Henry IL-Bureau-Putnam-Mercer-Henderson- Warren-Hancock-McDonough-Scotland-Clark- 319 AM CDT Sun Jul 11 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central Illinois...northwest Illinois...west central Illinois...east central Iowa...northeast Iowa...southeast Iowa and northeast Missouri. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT Scattered showers are expected today and tonight across the area. Isolated lightning strikes are possible. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY Near daily chances for thunderstorms are expected across the area. Later in the week the threat for heavy rainfall and strong thunderstorms return. At this time it is too soon to tell if there will be severe thunderstorms. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed today or tonight.
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1037 AM CDT SUN JUL 11 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1036 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 ESE KEOSAUQUA 40.72N 91.92W
07/11/2021 M3.00 INCH VAN BUREN IA TRAINED SPOTTER
TOTAL SINCE 9 PM LAST NIGHT.
&&
DCPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1043 AM CDT SUN JUL 11 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1043 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 W MOUNT STERLING 40.62N 92.00W
07/11/2021 M1.50 INCH VAN BUREN IA TRAINED SPOTTER
SINCE 530.
&&
DCSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
1116 AM CDT Sun Jul 11 2021
ILC067-111745-
Hancock-
1116 AM CDT Sun Jul 11 2021
...HEAVY RAIN FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN HANCOCK COUNTY
UNTIL 1245 PM CDT...
At 1113 AM CDT, radar indicated heavy rain from thunderstorms falling
near Hamilton, or near Keokuk, moving northwest at 10 mph.
Locations impacted include...
Keokuk, Carthage, Hamilton, Warsaw, Augusta, Bowen, West Point,
Denver, Elvaston, Basco, Bentley, Tioga, Sutter, Stillwell, Hancock
County Fairgrounds and Camp Eastman.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these repeating showers
and storms, with rainfall rates between 1 to 2 inches per hour.
Minor flooding of low lying areas, creeks, streams and urban areas
is possible. If you encounter water over a roadway, do not drive
through it.
LAT...LON 4020 9150 4021 9151 4024 9151 4026 9149
4028 9149 4035 9146 4038 9141 4040 9137
4045 9138 4049 9137 4051 9126 4027 9091
4021 9091 4019 9115
TIME...MOT...LOC 1613Z 167DEG 7KT 4035 9129
GunkelThe Lincoln radar (KILX), 142 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 17:28 UTC.
2 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
A trained spotter reported 6 inches of water flowing over the highway. Cars are stranded on the highway and law enforcement was in the process of closing the roadway.
A trained spotter reported 5 to 6 inches of water on Highway 61.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Illinois in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Illinois, July 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 972507, 972508.