Several inches of mud, rocks, and debris flowed over Baker Creek Road that closed the road. This was a burn scar area and the first of two road closing slide events.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PIH wrote it up.
Several inches of mud, rocks, and debris flowed over Baker Creek Road that closed the road. This was a burn scar area and the first of two road closing slide events.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Pocatello, ID wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 28, 1:52 PM MST, 8 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 252 PM MDT Wed Jul 28 2021 .SHORT TERM...Today through Friday. Current radar imagery shows widespread showers and Isolated to Scattered thunderstorms outside of the Snake River plain. Moderate to heavy rainfall has occurred with 0.50 to 1.00 across the Upper Snake Plain, Island Park area, and the Bear Lake Region already. Models this afternoon into early evening continue to show rain favored in the Central mtns, Island Park and the Bear Lake Region with precipitable water amounts from monsoon moisture around 1 inch. These areas are in the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) excessive rainfall outlook. Will continue to monitor the area for flash flood potential. Models show the Central mtns and Bear Lake region as the best areas for flash flooding. As these storms are not moving much, flash flood warnings over mountains will likely be needed for some storms. Thursday models show less precipitation chances than today but still expect Isolated to Scattered Showers and thunderstorms. Our mountain areas will likely see moderate to heavy rain with any storms, especially for our southeast areas where precipitable water amounts are over 1 inch. Precipitable water amounts are only 1/2 inch elsewhere on Thursday. Will continue to monitor on Thursday afternoon into the evening the potential for flash flooding. Friday precipitable water amounts rise back to around 1 inch to slightly higher with monsoon moisture continuing to move into the area from our south. Models continue to highlight our southern border on the Utah line and our eastern border on the Wyoming line as the highest chance of heavy rain, though all areas could see moderate to heavy rain. The WPC excessive rainfall outlook has most of our area in the outlook as a marginal risk. Again, will continue to monitor for flash flooding, especially for burn scars, like the Badger burn scar. Wyatt .LONG TERM...Saturday through next Wednesday. Main focus remains on the enhanced precipitation potential with a persistent deep monsoon flow this weekend into early next week, and associated heavy rain and flash flood/debris flow concerns. The forecast for cooler and wet conditions this weekend into early next week remains on track, with no significant changes to this thinking. Ensembles and WPC cluster analysis plots are in good agreement with the overall synoptic pattern featuring an elongated upper ridge to our east stretching from the Northern Rockies southeast trough the Southern Plains, lending increased confidence to the forecast. Resultant deep southerly flow will continue to pump monsoon moisture into the region, resulting in anomalously high PWATs for the area. GEFS and EPS forecasts are in strong agreement showing PWATs of 1 to 1.5 inches over the weekend, gradually starting to diminish from west to east on Monday. These values are over 200% of normal, indicating the anomalous nature of this monsoon plume this far north. Thus, ample moisture will exist to support heavy rain potential and attendant flash flood/debris flow concerns. It also appears that we'll have some enhanced forcing to work with as mid/upper-level shortwaves eject north/northeast across the area downstream of upper troughing off the West Coast. EPS EFI (Extreme Forecast Index) QPF progs continue to highlight Saturday, Sunday, and Monday as the main days of concern for potentially higher-impact rainfall amounts/resultant flash flooding. Seeing good support for this timing as well in individual ensemble member QPF and PWAT meteograms. The precipitation will be convective in nature, which means that not all locations will see heavy rain, as it will be dependent on thunderstorm coverage/location. However, this is the best signal we've seen in quite some time for potential widespread wetting rains, which would be a welcome relief to the very hot and dry summer thus far and ongoing wildfire activity. Speaking of the wetting rain potential, NBM probs remain fairly consistent showing roughly 50-70 percent chances of receiving at least 0.25 inches of precip over the mountains Saturday and Sunday, and 30-50 percent chances across the lower elevations of the Snake Plain. Again, actual amounts at any given location will vary given the convective nature, but the take-home message is that we're seeing good potential for fairly widespread wetting rains this weekend, along with enhanced potential for heavy rain in some locations that will heighten the flash flood/debris flow risk. We start to see drying by Tuesday and Wednesday of next week as southwest flow aloft strengthens, driving out the monsoon plume. Aside from the increased rain chances, the other big story will be much cooler temperatures during this time, with many lower elevation sites expected to see highs only in the upper 70s to lower 80s by Monday. KB && .AVIATION...Main aviation concern over the next couple of days remains shower and thunderstorm potential, particularly during the afternoon and evening hours as deep monsoon moisture remains in place. Outside of showers and storms, VFR conditions are expected. However, reduced VSBYs and CIGs are possible with any storms that move directly over a terminal, along with gusty winds to around 30 KTS. KB && .FIRE WEATHER...The monsoon flow is on and should continue across the region through the weekend before beginning to break down. As a result, diurnally favored scattered convection with enhanced (moderate to heavy) rain shower activity will continue across the region through the weekend with elevated daytime humidity levels. Today's model cycle appears to be favoring enhanced shower and thunderstorm activity across the CNTRL and SE mountains this afternoon transitioning into the Upper Snake Highlands/Targhee NF and/or the Wood River/Sawtooth NF regions this evening. The models have NOT been pinpoint accurate as of late so those areas should be viewed as suggestive rather than certain. Drier conditions may begin to work back into the region under increasing SW flow aloft perhaps as early as Wednesday of next week. Huston && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. &&
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Pocatello ID 1018 AM MDT Wed Jul 28 2021 IDZ060-061-281700- Bear Lake Valley ID-Bear River Range ID- 1018 AM MDT Wed Jul 28 2021 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN FRANKLIN AND SOUTHWESTERN BEAR LAKE COUNTIES UNTIL 1100 AM MDT... At 1017 AM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9 miles southwest of Saint Charles, or 11 miles west of Bear Lake Idaho Portion, moving east at 10 mph. Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm. Locations impacted include... Bear Lake Idaho Portion, Saint Charles, Fish Haven and Minnetonka Cave. Boaters can expect a sudden increase in waves and very choppy waters which will result in hazardous boating conditions. Boaters are urged to seek safe harbor if possible. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. If on or near Bear Lake, move to safe shelter now! Do not be caught on or near the water. Gusty winds and choppy waves are likely. && LAT...LON 4214 11165 4219 11125 4200 11122 4200 11164 TIME...MOT...LOC 1617Z 265DEG 7KT 4204 11155 KB
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Pocatello ID 1048 AM MDT Wed Jul 28 2021 IDZ052>054-281730- Arco/Mud Lake Desert ID-Upper Snake River Plain ID- Lower Snake River Plain ID- 1048 AM MDT Wed Jul 28 2021 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN BONNEVILLE AND CENTRAL BINGHAM COUNTIES UNTIL 1130 AM MDT... At 1048 AM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over Moreland, or near Blackfoot, moving north at 20 mph. Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm. Locations impacted include... Blackfoot, Moreland, Rose, Rockford and Groveland. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. && LAT...LON 4315 11233 4316 11257 4358 11257 4356 11221 TIME...MOT...LOC 1648Z 184DEG 19KT 4324 11245 KB
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
1114 AM MDT Wed Jul 28 2021
IDZ066-281800-
Centennial Mountains/Island Park ID-
1114 AM MDT Wed Jul 28 2021
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN FREMONT AND
NORTHEASTERN CLARK COUNTIES UNTIL NOON MDT...
At 1113 AM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 10 miles west of Shotgun Village to Island Park
Reservoir to Last Chance. Movement was northeast at 15 mph.
Winds to around 40 mph will be possible with these storms.
Locations impacted include...
Henrys Lake, Island Park Village, Shotgun Village, Ponds Lodge, Macks
Inn, Last Chance, Island Park Reservoir, Red Rock Pass, Sheridan
Reservoir, Big Springs and Harriman State Park.
Boaters can expect a sudden increase in waves and very choppy waters
which will result in hazardous boating conditions. Boaters are urged
to seek safe harbor if possible.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Heavy rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
If on or near Island Park Reservoir or Henry's Lake, move to safe
shelter now! Do not be caught on or near the water. Gusty winds and
choppy waves are likely.
&&
LAT...LON 4427 11139 4438 11160 4444 11184 4454 11175
4456 11170 4454 11146 4459 11152 4464 11152
4467 11147 4470 11149 4471 11142 4476 11139
4473 11132 4465 11128 4462 11122 4461 11124
4458 11123 4457 11118 4449 11109 4439 11109
TIME...MOT...LOC 1713Z 246DEG 12KT 4445 11166 4441 11151 4436 11140
KBSpecial Weather Statement National Weather Service Pocatello ID 1134 AM MDT Wed Jul 28 2021 IDZ061-063-281815- Bear Lake Valley ID-Caribou Range ID- 1134 AM MDT Wed Jul 28 2021 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN CARIBOU AND NORTHEASTERN BEAR LAKE COUNTIES UNTIL 1215 PM MDT... At 1131 AM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a thunderstorm 11 miles northeast of Montpelier, moving northeast at 10 mph. Dime size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with this storm. This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern Caribou and northeastern Bear Lake Counties. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Moderate to heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. && LAT...LON 4234 11121 4246 11128 4264 11105 4240 11105 TIME...MOT...LOC 1731Z 238DEG 11KT 4244 11113 TW
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
1157 AM MDT Wed Jul 28 2021
IDZ070>074-281900-
Challis/Pahsimeroi Valleys ID-Frank Church Wilderness ID-
Sawtooth/Stanley Basin ID-Big Lost Highlands/Copper Basin ID-
Sun Valley Region ID-
1157 AM MDT Wed Jul 28 2021
...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...
At 1156 AM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm
near Galena Lodge, or 13 miles northwest of Ketchum, moving
northeast at 15 mph.
Half inch hail and torrential rain will be possible with this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Galena Lodge and Livingston Mill.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
Persons in campgrounds should consider seeking sturdy shelter until
this storm passes.
&&
LAT...LON 4418 11463 4405 11411 4370 11449 4374 11467
4375 11467 4374 11468 4375 11469 4379 11469
4381 11471
TIME...MOT...LOC 1756Z 197DEG 11KT 4381 11458
KBSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
1242 PM MDT Wed Jul 28 2021
IDZ063-064-281930-
Big Hole Mountains ID-Caribou Range ID-
1242 PM MDT Wed Jul 28 2021
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL BONNEVILLE COUNTY
UNTIL 130 PM MDT...
At 1241 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Alpine, moving northeast at 15 mph.
Winds to around 40 mph will be possible with this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Palisades Reservoir and Irwin.
Boaters can expect a sudden increase in waves and very choppy waters
which will result in hazardous boating conditions. Boaters are urged
to seek safe harbor if possible.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
If on or near Palisades Reservoir, move to safe shelter now! Do not
be caught on or near the water. Gusty winds and choppy waves are
likely.
&&
LAT...LON 4316 11131 4335 11127 4347 11111 4345 11104
4302 11105
TIME...MOT...LOC 1841Z 202DEG 13KT 4317 11108
KBThe Boise radar (KCBX), 136 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 20:59 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Several inches of mud, rocks, and debris flowed over Baker Creek Road that closed the road. This was a burn scar area and the first of two road closing slide events.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Idaho in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Idaho, July 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 973909.