NWS Pocatello, ID wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Apr 8, 2:22 AM MST, 8 hours 38 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Apr 8, 2:22 AM MST, 8 hours 38 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
322 AM MDT Thu Apr 8 2021
...WIND EVENT TODAY WILL CREATE DIFFICULT DRIVING FOR HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES AND MAY LEAD TO AREAS OF SIGNIFICANT BLOWING DUST...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
OVERVIEW: A compact shortwave trough is forecast to drop SE across
the nrn Rockies today, with it's base shifting right across the CWA
this afternoon/eve. A tightening pressure gradient in the base of
the trough, coupled with a 60-70kt 500mb mid-level jet riding down
the back side of the trough into it's base, will set the stage for
strong/gusty sfc winds for much of the CWA and will be our focus
today. While the best chance of precip will reside further north
under the main body of the trough, isolated light/low impact
rain/snow showers remain possible across the Central Mntns north of
Ketchum/Mackay eastward across the Upper Snake north of Idaho Falls
and into the ern highlands. Best window for this activity based on
the HREF ensemble consensus is 1 PM to 9 PM, perhaps lingering until
midnight east of Idaho Falls, but QPF amounts should be very light
only supporting up to 1" or so of snow accum where snow can manage
to stick. High temps will top out in the upper 40s to upper 50s,
near to slightly below climatological norms for early April.
WINDS: Expectations for today's wind event have not changed at all.
A strengthening 700mb flow will result in a slow increase in sfc
winds over the course of this AM. This will be felt first at upper
slopes/peaks above the weakening nocturnal inversion, with a more
muted response at valley floors at first. Expect a rapid increase in
low-elevation sfc winds between 10 AM and noon as the inversion
breaks and mixing increases. This afternoon, strong dry-adiabatic
low-level sfc-700mb lapse rates of 8.5 to 10.0 degC/km as projected
by NAMNest/GFS soundings (maximized up the Magic Valley/Snake Plain
corridor) will support strong/efficient mixing with 700mb flow
increasing to 40-45kts. HREF mean cloud cover remains pretty limited
for most areas, further supporting good destabilization and mixing.
We again used a composite blend of 100% NBM everywhere, coupled with
95% ADJMET (NAM MOS) and 80% ADJMAV (GFS MOS) in the Magic
Valley/Snake Plain, for the wind forecast, yielding W-SW winds of 25-
35 MPH gusting 45-55 MPH up the ern Magic Valley/Snake Plain
corridor into the adjacent highlands to the south/east, and W winds
of 15-25 MPH gusting to 45 MPH elsewhere across the CWA. An isolated
gust or two over 60 MPH will be possible. The MAV guidance continues
to run at the high end of the guidance envelope (10-15kts higher
than the MET) and seems to be an outlier compared to nearly all
other guidance, so while we're excited about strong mixing, we're
not biting off on those values. Manual adjustments were made to bump
up speeds/gusts along the I-84 corridor north of Sweetzer Summit
which benefits from downsloping off the terrain west of the
interstate and often overperforms, and to light up mntn peaks (which
of course intrude further into the stronger flow aloft). Anytime we
can achieve low-level lapse rates of 9.0 C/km or better, it becomes
very likely the atmosphere will be capable of mixing down 100% of
the 700mb flow, and our forecast above does this nicely. We don't
get to say this often, but confidence in the overall wind forecast
and timing today is very high. Our forecast leans closer to the 10m
HREF ensemble max for both speeds/gusts, but given the dry
environment/lapse rates, we are comfortable with this. The ECMWF EFI
continues to light up at 0.7-0.9 suggesting this is an unusual event
compared to the past 5-week M-climate period, and every single EC
ensemble member continues to exceed 40 MPH gusts for Burley,
Pocatello, and Idaho Falls (with many members exceeding 50 MPH for
both Pocatello and Idaho Falls). Winds should start trending down
around 8-10 PM, but may remain quite breezy especially across the
srn highlands through midnight. This remains a SOLID advisory-level
event, and the going WIND ADVISORY remains unchanged this AM.
PRIMARY IMPACT CONCERNS: Difficult driving for high-profile vehicles
is a given today, especially on north-south and NW/SE oriented
highways where crosswinds will set up. This is a common hazard for
our advisory events. The BIG potentially high-impact but very low-
confidence wildcard in the forecast remains BLOWING DUST. While
areas like Idaho Falls/Rexburg exceeded 0.25" QPF and Pocatello
exceeded 0.50" Mon/Tue, most of the rest of the Magic Valley/Snake
Plain came in at less than 0.10" (driest as you head SW toward
Burley/Twin Falls), and we're in the middle of about a 48-hour-long
opportunity to dry out. Widespread plowing is in progress in
agricultural areas. IF sfc soils can adequately dry, the potential
remains for SIGNIFICANT blowing dust in the advisory area resulting
in pockets of visibility near zero and highway closures. Normal
trouble spots like I-15 between Idaho Falls and Hamer, I-15 in the
Fort Hall area, and I-86 between American Falls and Arbon Valley
would be prime candidates. We honestly don't have a great way to
monitor soil moisture trends, so our confidence in this hazard will
remain low until we can start "now-casting" based on webcams and see
how soils are responding today, but we urge everyone to remain very
cognizant of this potential hazard. Continue to generously broadbush
blowing dust in the forecast grids up the Snake Plain corridor. If
you encounter low visibility, slow down, turn on headlights, and use
road lines to help guide you. If pulling over, pull off the road as
far as possible in a safe location.
LESSER IMPACT CONCERNS: Given the sub-warning wind speeds/gusts
currently forecast, a lack of leaves on the trees, and a
climatologically "normal" wind direction from the WSW, any tree
damage and power outages should remain very isolated and be less of
a concern with this event. While they can't be ruled out, these
impacts don't usually become widespread at these speeds. Loose
outdoor objects may blow around, and should be secured by late AM.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: Another break between systems is forecast Fri
as a shortwave-style "tongue" of high pressure ridging slides across
the nrn Rockies, bringing plenty of sunshine and highs nudging a few
degrees warmer compared to today. Forecast confidence is high. Sat,
we repeat everything all over again as yet another shortwave trough
drops across the nrn Rockies bringing a few light/low-impact
rain/snow showers to mtn areas north of the Snake Plain and another
round of potentially advisory-level winds/blowing dust. Didn't get
as cute with this forecast yet with the focus on today's system, but
did run a similar NBM/MAV/MET composite blend to capture the wind
gradient in the terrain while lighting up the Magic Valley/Snake
Plain corridor where the MAV/MET performs well. At a glance, 700mb
flow looks SLIGHTLY stronger compared to today's event, but low-
level lapse rates may be a bit weaker, so we'll see how all the
applicable parameters trend. Soils will be drier by Sat, so it's
possible the blowing dust threat will be higher. It will be
interested to see how today unfolds with respect to
calibrating our expectations and confidence for Sat. - KSmith
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...
Consensus has come together with keeping East Idaho under the
influence of weak troughing Sunday behind main low and wind event
Saturday. Reinforcing shortwave drops through BC/Alberta Canada
through the panhandle early in the week, though there are
differences in timing and depth between GFS, ECMWF and ensemble
means. Even the clusters are struggling with difference scenarios.
Regardless, the deterministic solutions are not generating much
precipitation or wind over East Idaho with this feature, and the
blend has followed this trend. The upper low does appear to close
off and wobble around the northern Great Basin/East Idaho for the
remainder of the forecast period. There isn't a lot of support for
this yet in the clusters, though it is making an appearance. The
blend appears to favor weaker trough influence on the eastern
borders and drier conditions for the rest of the area. - DMH
&&
.AVIATION...
Winds look to be the main impact today with speeds picking up
shortly after sunrise and remaining strong through the day. All
terminals should expect gusts over 25kts, but the Snake Plain
terminals KBYI/KPIH/KIDA will see the worst with gusts exceeding
40kts through the afternoon. Blowing dust may be an issue,
especially with spring agricultural activity starting in many
areas. However, given recent precipitation, there is not enough
confidence to put BLDU and restricted visibilities in the
terminals yet. We may see a few showers across northern higher
terrain, which may include KDIJ so will keep VCSH for the
afternoon and evening. Gradient turns northwest after sunset with
winds remaining breezy but significantly less windy. High pressure
returns for Friday with continued VFR conditions and less wind.
- DMH
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM MDT this evening
for IDZ051>058-062.
&&