Wildfire in Hawaii, June 4 to 7, 2021

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
1003 AM HST Fri Jun 4 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Lingering clouds and showers will primarily impact Kauai today,
with more typical trade wind weather over the remainder of the
state. Breezy trade winds accompanied by more typical trade wind
weather will be felt across the state this weekend and into early
next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Remnants of a cloud and shower band which affected Oahu and Kauai
last light and this morning, lingers over Kauai but are clearing
Oahu at this hour. National Blend of Models handled this feature
well with generally between .10 and .50 rainfall over windward and
mountain areas of those two islands. The rest of the state was
largely dry overnight and this morning. This dry and stable trend
will continue to spread westward with returning trades through
the state this afternoon with inversion heights near 7000 feet due
to mid level subsidence.

In large picture, surface high dominates the area far north of the
state, eventually building towards a 1032 mb high by early to
middle of next week. This will result in a return of breezy to
locally gusty trade winds over the weekend and early next week.
Ridge aloft in the vicinity is expected to keep the trade showers
to a minimum and focused windward sides and adjacent mountain
slopes.

&&

.AVIATION...
A brief lull in otherwise moderate to breezy trades may be
sufficient to support a modified sea breeze pattern over leeward
Oahu today. This relative lull will be short-lived with breezy
trades forecast to be place over the entire area once more by late
this evening. In the meantime, remnant frontal moisture will
continue to bring periods of MVFR clouds and showers to Windward
Kauai until it is finally ushered west of the area by 04z/6pm HST.
For Windward Oahu, improvement to prevailing VFR is expected no
later than early this afternoon.

AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration remains in effect for Oahu
and Kauai.

&&

.MARINE...
Moderate to locally strong trade winds will persist through early
next week, and a Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the
typically windy waters around Maui County and the Big Island. A
surface high far to the northwest will strengthen and drift to the
northeast over the next couple days, then stall far north of the
islands. Little change in winds is expected into early next week.
The remnants of a front will linger around Kauai and Oahu today
before moving west of the state.

A small bump to north shore surf is expected Saturday. South
shore surf will slowly rise to near seasonal average over the
weekend as a couple of small, long period south swells move
through. East shore surf will increase to near seasonal average
as trades over and upstream of the state strengthen through the
weekend.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Sunday for Maalaea Bay-
Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big
Island Southeast Waters.

&&

DISCUSSION...Brenchley
AVIATION...JVC
MARINE...Kinel