Drought in Hawaii, July 20 to 31, 2021

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
911 PM HST Mon Jul 19 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy to strong trades will continue through the week, with showers
primarily focused over windward and mauka areas, especially during
the overnight and early morning hours.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Breezy to locally strong trade winds will persist through the week,
occasionally delivering clouds and showers that will primarily
dampen windward areas. A few light sprinkles spreading leeward will
do little to help the parched landscape. A diffuse NW-SE oriented
band of showery low clouds will pass over the islands overnight,
providing at least some rainfall to most windward locales.

Strong high pressure far N of the islands will change little on
Tuesday, then gradually drift W over the next several days. Locally
strong trade winds will continue in the short term, then ease only
slightly the next couple of days. Sustained wind speeds and gusts
have remained below Wind Advisory criteria, and thus the Advisory
for the Big Island's Kohala District has been cancelled.

Confidence is high that most of the increased moisture from the
remnants of Felicia will pass S of the islands, but some peripheral
moisture may increase trade showers Thursday into Friday. A more
significant slug of low-level moisture, associated with the remnants
of Guillermo, may be near the islands late next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
Locally windy trade winds will continue through Tuesday due to
strong surface high pressure far north and northwest of the state. A
band of broken low clouds with embedded scattered trade showers will
remain focused along windward facing slopes and coasts tonight.
Therefore, expect brief periods of MVFR conditions over north
through east sections. A weak upper-level low northwest of the
islands will also bring some high clouds across the Big Island into
early Tuesday morning.

AIRMET Tango for TEMPO moderate turbulence over and south through
west of the higher terrain on all islands will likely remain in
effect through Tuesday night. We will also be monitoring
observations overnight in case AIRMET Sierra for mountain
obscuration may be required for some islands.

&&

.MARINE...
A strong high pressure ridge north of the Hawaiian Islands will
continue to produce strong trade winds and elevated rough seas
through the week. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is in effect for all
coastal waters through tonight. The SCA was extended in time to
include all coastal waters through Tuesday afternoon, and for the
windier channels and waters over the eastern half of the state
through Thursday morning.

Surf along east facing shores will remain elevated with choppy
conditions this week due to the strong trades. Select areas on the
south and north shores should see some localized trade wind swell.
Tropical Cyclone Felicia, currently in the Eastern Pacific, will not
produce large surf due to limited fetch. However, Felicia could
bring in some small to moderate mid period surf mainly along the
east facing shores of the Big Island later this week.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Thursday for Maalaea Bay-Pailolo
Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island
Southeast Waters.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Tuesday for Kauai Northwest
Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Channel-Oahu
Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Maui County
Windward Waters-Maui County Leeward Waters-Big Island Windward
Waters.

&&

DISCUSSION...Birchard
AVIATION...Houston
MARINE...Bohlin