Drought in Hawaii, August 3 to 31, 2021

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
830 PM HST Mon Aug 2 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure far north of the state will drive breezy trades
through the week. Scattered showers will favor windward and mauka
areas primarily during the overnight and morning hours.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure far north of the state will drive breezy trades
throughout the week. Slight wind speed fluctuations are expected,
with a slight decrease in winds possible around Wednesday or
Thursday. Models show little overall change in our flow pattern
through the forecast period.

Satellite loop shows patchy broken low clouds across windward
shores and slopes of the smaller islands, with mostly clear to
clear skies noted leeward. In contrast, broken to overcast low
clouds cover almost all Big Island shores and slopes, leaving only
leeward Kohala with mostly clear skies. Radar shows isolated to
scattered showers associated with this cloud cover, favoring
windward slopes. Total rainfall has been light all day. Expect
the same rainfall distribution tonight.

For rest of the week, expect typical summer trade wind weather,
with the best chance for showers during the overnight and early
morning hours. Leeward areas will continue to remain mostly dry.
The continued dryness over leeward areas, combined with breezy
trade winds, could elevate fire weather concerns once again this
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Robust high pressure far north of the area will sustain breezy to
locally strong trade winds through tonight, with a modest decrease
in wind speeds possible Tuesday. Quick-moving showers riding on
the trades will mainly affect windward and mauka sections across
the state, especially on the Big Island. However, VFR will hold
sway predominantly.

An AIRMET remains in effect for low level turbulence to the lee of
the mountains across the island chain because of the breezy to strong
trades. The AIRMET will likely continue in effect through
Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
A strong high pressure system far northeast of the state will
gradually weaken through the end of the week. A Small Craft
Advisory remains in effect for all Hawaiian coastal waters until
Tuesday evening. Gradually weakening trade winds starting late
Tuesday will decrease the SCA coverage to the typical windier
waters near Maui County and the Big Island starting Tuesday
night.

Little change in surf is expected over the next 24 hours or so.
The strong trades will continue to produce rough and slightly
elevated surf along east facing shores. As the trades start to
decrease, we expect the surf heights to decline to near the
summertime averages by Wednesday onward. South and southeast swell
will continue to keep south facing shores from going flat through
mid-week. A small south-southwest swell is currently expected to
arrive Friday, which may provide a small boost in surf heights
heading into next weekend. Expect nearly flat conditions along
most north and west facing shores this week.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Wednesday for Maalaea Bay-
Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big
Island Southeast Waters.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Tuesday for Kauai Northwest
Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Channel-
Oahu Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Maui
County Windward Waters-Maui County Leeward Waters-Big Island
Windward Waters.

&&

DISCUSSION...Powell
AVIATION...Kinel
MARINE...Bohlin