Heavy rain of around 3 inches ahead of a cold front resulted in minor flooding in Tift county.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS TAE wrote it up.
Heavy rain of around 3 inches ahead of a cold front resulted in minor flooding in Tift county.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tallahassee, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 2, 6:38 PM EST, 22 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
638 PM EST Sat Jan 2 2021
.AVIATION...
[Through 00Z Monday]
Conditions vary greatly across the TAF sites tonight with VFR
conditions to the west and LIFR to MVFR to the east. While DHN
and ECP are VFR, brief periods of lower cigs are still possible
over the next few hours. Rain will continue overnight,
particularly in the TLH to ABY to VLD area. This will clear out
overnight from west to east with cigs and vsbys also improving.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION [411 PM EST]...
.NEAR TERM [Through Sunday]...
Seeing a little bit of a lull in the heavy precipitation rates this
afternoon while light to moderate rain continues to fall over much
of the area. The corridor of highest totals so far have been
observed from near Apalachicola to southeast Tallahassee to up near
Valdosta. A widespread 3 to 5 inches have been observed across much
of the Florida Big Bend into South Central Georgia, with isolated
pockets up to 6 to 8 inches being reported. Thankfully, most of the
heaviest rainfall totals have occurred over rural areas and have been
spread out over the last 12-24 hours or so. An additional 1 to 2
inches with isolated amounts near 3 inches will be possible through
the rest of the afternoon and evening.
A trough is currently rotating across the northwestern Gulf this
afternoon as seen on water vapor imagery. As the axis of this trough
moves closer to our area later this afternoon and evening, expect
more robust convection to blossom over the Gulf once again and move
onshore across the Big Bend and into South Central Georgia. A
widespread 1 to 2 inches with isolated amounts near 3 inches of
additional rainfall will be possible across these already saturated
areas with this next round of heavy rainfall. This could create some
minor flooding or exacerbate current flooding ongoing across the
area. A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect through the evening.
The trough that will cause the additional blossoming of heavy
showers and storms will also eventually cause the stalled frontal
boundary to begin moving eastward again this evening and tonight.
After the heavy band of rain moves into the Big Bend this evening,
expect the line of showers and storms to pick up more of an eastward
component and gradually begin to move out of the hardest hit areas.
A few gusty winds will be possible with these storms as they slowly
push through the southeast Big Bend this evening. The front and
associated convection should exit the area tonight, with drier and
cooler conditions in its wake. Low temperatures tonight will range
from the low 40s across Southeast Alabama to the mid 50s across the
southeast Big Bend. High temperatures tomorrow are forecast in the
upper 50s to mid 60s under mostly sunny skies.
.SHORT TERM [Sunday Night Through Monday Night]...
Troughing presides over the region through the short-term period as
an upstream shortwave swings down across the southeast on the heels
of the lifting system from Sat. The former will help usher in a
cool/dry airmass, followed by west-northwest mid/upper flow and
building surface high pressure. As a result, rain-free weather
continues into early next week under near seasonable temperatures
(highs in the low 60s and lows in the upper 30s, away from the
coast).
.LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Saturday]...
Ridging combined with prevailing high pressure become the main
synoptic features influencing our weather through mid-week before a
large cutoff low develops over the TN/MS Valley. This late-week
system is expected to induce surface cyclogenesis near AK/MS and
drag an accompanying cold front across the southeast. Rain chances
subsequently return on Thurs and diminish from west to east by Fri,
followed by mostly dry conditions to close out the long-term period.
It is a bit too soon to determine the magnitude of active weather
during frontal passage, but the local airmass does not appear to
moderate enough in time to raise concerns about potential severe
threats at the moment. Therefore, thunder was left out of the
forecast since instability will be limited, with only up to chance
PoPs. The outlook can of course change in forthcoming days as
confidence grows.
Prior to the cold front (Tues-Thurs), we expect to see high
temperatures in the 60s, followed by mid/upper 50s outside of
southeast Big Bend. Most nights and mornings should be cool-to-
chilly, with lows mostly in the upper 30s Tues-Wed thanks to a
reinforced shot of cool air from an upstream longwave trough digging
into the NW Atlantic. Slightly warmer low temperatures in the 40s
are forecast Thurs-Fri, followed by upper 30s on Sat (slightly
warmer near the coast) after frontal passage. Some isolated cold
spots may see mid 30s on the chilliest days.
.MARINE...
Cautionary boating conditions persist through today as a cold front
continues to focus a large swath of showers and storms across our
waters. Rain chances remain high until Sun morning, followed by dry
weather through mid-week after the front passes, making for more
favorable winds and seas. Advisory levels are possible on Thurs
ahead of another cold front.
.FIRE WEATHER...
Widespread rain is forecast to continue this afternoon and evening,
with Red Flag conditions not expected in the foreseeable future.
Cooler and drier conditions are expected for the next few days
behind a cold front.
.HYDROLOGY...
The combination of wet weather yesterday and today's event
consisting of widespread, prolonged rainfall is making for an
ongoing flash flood threat through tonight. A quasi-stationary cold
front draped across the Tri-state area continues to focus a large
band of convection that has brought numerous showers, with embedded
pockets of heavy rain this afternoon. Estimated amounts as of 2pm
(dating back to Fri) are 3-4 inches across the Big Bend and adjacent
southwest GA, with a 4-6 inch swath extending from Apalachicola to
Tallahassee into portions of Jefferson County. Isolated 6-8 inches
were also reported. These values align very well with the areas
under a Flash Flood Watch (until early Sun morning).
More rainfall is expected heading into the evening hours, with an
additional 1-3 inches possible in the Big Bend and southwest GA. A
Flood Advisory will remain in effect for Franklin and Wakulla County
until 6-6:15pm EST. Radar trends will be monitored closely as we are
keeping an eye on a few heavy rain batches across the Bainbridge
area and central Big Bend late this afternoon. Rain is forecast to
conclude from west to east late tonight into early tomorrow morning,
followed by dry weather through mid-week.
In terms of local rivers and creeks, St. Marks River - Newport on
Old Magnolia Rd is in minor flood stage and forecast to remain that
way into Thurs morning. Ochlockonee, Choctawhatchee - Bellwood, and
Shoal River are in action stage, while the Withlacoochee, Aucilla,
Flint, and Little River are forecast to enter action stage within
the next couple days.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 48 60 38 62 39 / 90 0 0 0 0
Panama City 46 60 41 62 45 / 80 0 0 0 0
Dothan 41 56 36 60 39 / 40 0 0 0 0
Albany 45 57 36 60 39 / 80 0 0 0 0
Valdosta 52 61 38 61 39 / 80 0 0 0 0
Cross City 57 67 39 63 39 / 70 10 0 0 0
Apalachicola 48 60 41 61 44 / 90 0 0 0 0
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flash Flood Watch until 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ Sunday for
Calhoun-Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal
Jefferson-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Inland Bay-Inland
Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Wakulla-
Jackson-Leon-Liberty-Madison-Washington.
High Rip Current Risk until 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ Sunday for
Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.
GA...Flash Flood Watch until 1 AM EST Sunday for Baker-Ben Hill-
Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-
Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Miller-Mitchell-
Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.
AL...None.
GM...Flash Flood Watch until 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ Sunday for
Apalachee Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to
Ochlockonee River FL out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From
Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal
waters from Mexico Beach to Apalachicola FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County
Line FL out 20 NM.
&&
NEAR TERM...Merrifield
SHORT TERM...IG3
LONG TERM...IG3
AVIATION...Fieux
MARINE...IG3
FIRE WEATHER...Merrifield
HYDROLOGY...IG3PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
220 PM EST SAT JAN 2 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0219 PM HEAVY RAIN 3 S ASHVILLE 30.57N 83.64W
01/02/2021 E4.11 INCH JEFFERSON FL PUBLIC
DAILY TOTAL SO FAR OF 4.11 INCHES OF RAIN.
&&
JLFPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
243 PM EST SAT JAN 2 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0242 PM HEAVY RAIN 4 SSW KINDERLOU 30.74N 83.39W
01/02/2021 E4.03 INCH LOWNDES GA PUBLIC
4.03 INCHES OF RAIN RECORDED SO FAR TODAY.
&&
JLFPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
250 PM EST SAT JAN 2 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0100 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 NNE THOMAS CITY 30.37N 83.97W
01/02/2021 M4.19 INCH JEFFERSON FL CO-OP OBSERVER
CO-OP OBSERVER STATION WACF1 0.9 NE THOMAS
CITY OBSERVED 4.19 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE
PAST 24 HOURS.
&&
KOPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
310 PM EST SAT JAN 2 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0307 PM HEAVY RAIN PORT SAINT JOE 29.81N 85.29W
01/02/2021 M4.96 INCH GULF FL MESONET
4.96 INCHES OF RAIN MEASURED BETWEEN JAN 1ST
- JAN 2ND, 2021.
&&
KOPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
339 PM EST SAT JAN 2 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0335 PM HEAVY RAIN 3 SSW EASTPOINT 29.71N 84.89W
01/02/2021 M4.84 INCH GMZ755 FL MESONET
4.84 INCHES REPORTED IN THE LAST 24 HOURS AT
THE SAINT GEORGE ISLAND BRIDGE WEATHERSTEM.
&&
KOPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
529 PM EST SAT JAN 2 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0519 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 ESE SANBORN 30.07N 84.59W
01/02/2021 M6.37 INCH WAKULLA FL MESONET
MESONET STATION SNDF1 SANBORN HAS RECORDED
6.37 INCHES IN THE LAST 24 HOURS.
&&
KOThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Water was reported on several roadways, but no roads were closed.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Georgia in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Georgia, January 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 936503.