A front settled across southeast Georgia and lingered across northeast Florida. Diurnal instability combined with a moist airmass triggered scattered showers and isolated storms along the meandering front, some of which produced heavy rainfall.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JAX wrote it up.
A front settled across southeast Georgia and lingered across northeast Florida. Diurnal instability combined with a moist airmass triggered scattered showers and isolated storms along the meandering front, some of which produced heavy rainfall.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jacksonville, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 3, 2:25 PM EST, 20 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
325 PM EDT Fri Sep 3 2021
.Near Term.../through Saturday/...
The region will be between an inverted trough over the coastal
waters and a broad ridge of high pressure to the north this period.
Best moisture located over NE FL this afternoon and evening, as
drier air filters in from north northwest. Convergence associated
with coastal trough will continue to produce scattered showers with
embedded thunderstorms over southern portions of the forecast area
on a northeast flow. This area will sink southwest through the
afternoon and evening, with a dry night expected for Tonight. A wide
variation in temperatures expected Tonight. Inland, the drier air
will allow readings to fall, while closer to the coast, sea
surface temperatures around 80 will keep readings up in the
onshore flow. Lows Tonight will range from the lower to mid 60s
over inland SE GA, to the middle 70s along the coast.
For Saturday, the location of the inverted trough will produce more
of a north northeast flow, leading to the best chance for
precipitation closer to the NE FL coast. Highs around 90 expected
inland, with highs closer to the middle 80s near the coast due to
the onshore flow.
&&
.Short Term.../Saturday night through Monday night/...
The inverted trough will weaken Saturday night into Sunday as high
to the north northeast builds closer. As the trough flattens
Sunday, the onshore flow will become more from the east in the
afternoon. This will allow for an increase in moisture.
Convective chances will increase Sunday, but best chances will be
across NE FL.
Weak high pressure will build to the east Sunday night through
Monday night as a cold front sinks into the southeastern US.
Precipitation chances will be a little higher Monday than Sunday,
as moistrue increases ahead of approaching front.
A moderating trend in temperatures is expected this period.
&&
.Long Term.../Tuesday through Friday/...
Cold front will sink southeast into SE GA Tuesday, then to near the
GA/FL border on Wednesday. There is a great deal of uncertainty
later in this period as the latest long range models are now
trending toward a low developing on this boundary over Gulf and
tracking east across forecast area late in the week. At minimum
expecting convective chances each day this period, and if model
trends continue with this low chances will increase later in the
week.
Temperatures will trend above normal through Wednesday, then near
normal.
&&
.Marine...
The region will be between an inverted trough extending into region
from the southeast, and an area of high pressure to the north
through Sunday. Weak high pressure will be to the east early next
week, as a cold front moves into the southeastern US. The high will
build more toward the southeast mid week, as the front gets closer.
Rip Currents: SE GA: Moderate through Saturday
NE FL: Moderate through Saturday
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 63 89 67 92 70 / 0 0 0 10 0
SSI 73 85 74 86 74 / 0 10 10 10 0
JAX 69 87 72 89 73 / 0 10 10 20 0
SGJ 74 86 73 88 73 / 20 30 10 20 0
GNV 69 89 71 90 72 / 10 10 10 30 0
OCF 70 90 72 90 73 / 30 10 10 40 10
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Minor flooding was reported along County Road 90 at the Forest Park Street intersection. The dirt road was completely covered in shallow water, but it was still passable by vehicles.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Florida in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Florida, September 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 978788.