Wildfire in Florida, May 21, 2021

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
149 PM EDT Fri May 21 2021

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Saturday]

Enhanced low level moisture and low level convergence resulting
in scattered to broken cumulus around 2500-4000 ft, with ceilings
generally around 5000-6000 ft at times rest of the aftn. Isolated
to scattered showers continue over northeast FL and brief MVFR
vsby possible near KJAX next few hours. Given the additional
clouds and a few showers, boundary mixing has become a bit more
muted and so the sfc winds have dropped off around KJAX, KVQQ, and
KCRG, but will pick up again later this aftn. Winds diminish
tonight and increase again by about 14Z Saturday. Otherwise,
general VFR is anticipated tonight and Saturday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [953 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Unseasonably strong high pressure center over the Carolinas will
build southward towards the region and a slightly more moist
airmass over the Wrn Atlc just offshore of the GA/SC coast
associated with a weakening trof axis will slide onshore and into
the NE FL/SE GA region today. GOES-16 Satellite imagery is showing
this airmass has Precipitable Water Amounts around 1 inch which
along with coastal convergence in the East-Northeast surface flow
should be enough to develop a band of scattered showers over the
Coastal Waters early this morning that should get pushed into the
Atlc Coastal Counties by the mid morning hours and continue into
the early afternoon hours before daytime heating and mixing helps
the shower activity become more isolated as it presses inland. For
now the Hi-Res models are aiming the best chances moving onshore
into the JAX metro area as an organized convergent band sets up
with a few moderate to brief heavy showers possible, but still
likely not tall enough convection for any lightning activity.
This activity along the coast should hold Max Temps near 80
degrees from the Beaches to the I-95 corridor, then further inland
the Max Temps should warm into the 80s once again. This trof
feature pushing onshore will also increase winds once again with
East-Northeast winds at 20-25 mph with gusts to 35 mph at the
beaches with lesser 15-20 mph with gusts to 25-30 mph winds over
inland areas this afternoon. Winds decrease after sunset tonight
along with shower activity, but the continued easterly flow over
the Atlc waters will still yield some isolated shower potential at
times through the overnight hours, but not likely as organized as
today's activity. Lows will range from the lower 60s inland to the
upper 60s/near 70 degrees along the Atlc Coast.

.SHORT TERM [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...

As the surface high builds into the region and weakens, the breezy
onshore flow on Saturday with a slight chance of a shower will
usher in a more light and variable wind flow for Sunday with a
weaker onshore flow and East Coast Sea Breeze with very little
chance of rainfall. The onshore flow on Saturday will keep temps
closer to normal values with Highs in the middle/upper 80s inland
and near 80 degrees along the coast, while the lack of onshore
flow on Sunday will allow temps to jump slightly above normal with
highs in the upper 80s/lower 90s inland and lower/middle 80s
closer to the Atlc Coast.

.LONG TERM [Monday Through Friday]...

Unseasonably Hot and Dry period as mid/upper level ridge builds
over the region with a very dry airmass for late May, while a
surface trof will set up along the SE US Piedmont region just west
of the I-95 corridor and keep a warm southwest surface flow over
inland areas, while a late day Atlc Coast Sea Breeze each day will
provide some relief for the Coastal Counties. Max Temps are
expected to reach well into the 90s over inland areas, while temps
along the Atlc Coast should top out around 90 degrees before the
sea breeze kicks in each day. While the atmosphere will remain
very dry for late May, an isolated afternoon/evening shower or
thunderstorm as the sea breeze pushes in each is not out of the
question and Pops will remain in the silent 10% range for now.
Apparent Temperatures (Heat Index) readings will likely be very
close to the actual temperatures due to lower dewpoints with this
heatwave and will likely peak in the upper 90s/near 100 degrees.
The longer duration of the hot/dry weather pattern and low
afternoon humidities will lead to elevated fire danger as surface
vegetation starts to dry out through the week.

.MARINE...

Winds are east to northeast about 15-20 knots per coastal obs.
Observed seas showed to be near 1-2 ft lower than NWPS guidance.
SCA is in effect for FL offshore waters and SCEC remains in effect
elsewhere. Satellite derived cloud motion winds indicated winds
of about 25 kt. Don't see any reasons to make much change to the
CWF update at this time but will monitor obs for any headline
changes.

Rip Currents:
High risk of rip currents continues through Saturday for most
beaches. Surf and rips will be rough and dangerous for any level
of swimmer. May also need to have high risk extended into Sunday.

.FIRE WEATHER...

Breezy East winds will continue today and Saturday and lead to
high daytime dispersions, but humidities will remain above
critical levels. Hot daytime temperatures into the 90s are
expected to develop on Sunday and continue through next week.
While winds are expected to remain below 15 mph, low afternoon
humidities below critical levels will likely bring an elevated
fire danger to the region each day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  60  86  59  91  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
SSI  68  79  65  84  68 /  20  10   0   0   0
JAX  64  82  61  88  63 /  20   0   0   0   0
SGJ  67  81  64  83  64 /  10   0   0   0   0
GNV  61  86  59  90  61 /  10   0   0   0   0
OCF  62  87  60  90  61 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Saturday night for Coastal
     Duval-Coastal Flagler-Coastal Nassau-Coastal St. Johns.

GA...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Camden-
     Coastal Glynn.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Saturday for Waters from
     Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20 to 60
     NM.

&&