A moderate rip current risk was in effect due to moderate onshore flow and elevated surf.
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The episode as NWS JAX wrote it up.
A moderate rip current risk was in effect due to moderate onshore flow and elevated surf.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jacksonville, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 2, 12:07 PM EST, 47 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 107 PM EDT Sun May 2 2021 .AVIATION...[Through 18Z Monday] Warm front lifting north across northeast Florida has increased moisture and shower activity this afternoon. MVFR ceilings will persist with scattered showers spreading northeast thru early evening. Expect isolated thunderstorms to develop inland til around 23z with showers lingering near the east coast til 03z. && .PREV DISCUSSION [909 AM EDT]... .NEAR TERM [Today Through Tonight]... Sfc data shows frontal boundary across south central FL with high pressure over the western Atlantic. Weak troughing is noted over our eastern zones, with weak convergence producing a few sprinkles over the offshore coastal waters. Otherwise, weak east-southeast sfc flow over area with the best low level moisture over the eastern zones with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. Partly cloudy skies at this time, but as front to our south lifts northward later today and tonight, increasing lift expected, with some added dynamics as an upstream trough approaches the area. GFS shows a 70-80 kt 250 mb jet moving into the FL panhandle this afternoon and then across our area tonight while weakening slightly. The added divergence aloft, and sufficient buoyancy will bring a good chance of showers and a few embedded t-storms today. The main focus will be roughly from I-75 to the US highway 301 corridor in the early to mid aftn. With mean flow south-southwest, activity will push off to the northeast around 15- 20 mph this aftn. A strong thunderstorm can't be ruled out given instability of up to 1500-2000 J/kg and deep shear of about 25 kt. Gusty winds looks to be the main issue. By late aftn, a broken line of showers and potential storms looks to be oriented basically around the St Johns River Basin northward into GA through U.S. 1. A few pockets of heavier rainfall of at least half an inch look possible into the evening. Highs today generally mid to upper 80s inland, and lower 80s closer to the east coast. Tonight, warm front looks to push north of the area overnight. We showed slight to chance POPs in the evening over the east zones, lingering from the aftn convection and should work off to the northeast or east and affect parts of the coastal waters as well. Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy given the aftn convective debris and upstream upper level clouds. The convection will diminish by midnight, but there are indications from models, primarily just the HRRR, that bring in another area of convection to our west and northwest zones toward the early morning hours, due to a disturbance aloft and the upper jet, ahead of the main mid level trough. Not confident in area or timing for this second batch of convection so just painted 20 percent showers for now. Min temps will be more mild in the mid to upper 60s tonight. With moist low levels, showed patchy late night fog. .SHORT TERM [Monday Through Tuesday]... Mean southwesterly flow will continue between a surface high and upper ridge to the east and broad cyclonic flow with embedded shortwaves to the west-northwest. By daybreak Monday the first shortwave trough will have already lifted past the region with induced ridging developing in its wake. As a result, spotty light showers may be ongoing over SE GA through the early morning hours on Monday but should subside by mid-morning. A second shortwave trough will eject northeastward from the southern Plains Tuesday afternoon, bringing a renewed chance of showers and embedded t-storms to SE GA Tuesday night ahead of its attendant cold front. In addition to the dynamically forced waves of precip, the persistent southwesterly flow over the region will favor a progressive Gulf sea breeze each afternoon while keeping the Atlantic sea breeze pinned along the First Coast. Sea breeze convergence may spark a few showers and maybe an isolated t-storm east of the I-95 corridor in NE FL during the late afternoon hours on Monday and Tuesday. The combination of breezy southwesterly winds and the influence of ridging to the east will boost temps into the lower 90s both afternoons. In windier locations where better mixing will occur, highs may reach the mid 90s (approaching record levels; see the climate section below). Depending on the degree of boundary layer decoupling, patchy fog may develop across inland areas during the early morning hours Monday and Tuesday. .LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Sunday]... The aforementioned cold front attendant to an ejecting upper shortwave is expected to slow as it reaches our SE GA zones Wednesday morning. Due to the loss of upper support and near zonal flow from near the surface up to the tropopause, the east-to-west oriented front will stall across the area on Wednesday. A more potent upstream wave is progged to rapidly dig from the central Rockies into the Southeast on Thursday. As it does so, it will reenergize forcing for ascent along the stalled front while sending its own cold front southeastward as well. The net result of this will be scattered showers and maybe an isolated t-storm on Wednesday then more substantial t-storm coverage on Thursday as lapse rates steepen forcing increases. Isolated strong, or possibly marginal severe, t-storms are certainly possible on Thursday along with locally heavy rain from training t-storms. Though it's still too early to be confident in particular areas, the best potential for heavy rain and severe storms at the moment would SE GA. The cold front will be shunted southeastward Thursday night as drier, cooler air filters into the area on deep northwesterly flow. High pressure will build in from the northwest and build to the northeast over the weekend. A drier stable airmass and the influence of high pressure will continue fair weather through next weekend. Temperatures will moderate on Wednesday but remain above normal on Wednesday. Numerous to widespread showers on Thursday will cool temps closer to normal before a more noticeable drop on Friday in the wake of the cold front. .MARINE... Warm front will move northward over the region today causing winds to turn from east-southeast to south by tonight. High pressure will continue to be east of the area through mid week. A cold front approaches from the northwest late Wednesday. This front will move southeast across area Thursday. High pressure will build from the west northwest Friday, then overhead Friday night into Saturday. No headlines needed at this time, but the gustier southerly winds look generally to be over the offshore waters over the next few days. Rip Currents: A moderate risk for today through Monday due to onshore flow and elevated surf. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 83 67 89 69 91 / 50 30 20 10 30 SSI 80 71 84 71 86 / 20 30 10 0 10 JAX 83 68 92 69 92 / 40 30 10 0 10 SGJ 81 70 91 69 89 / 40 30 10 0 10 GNV 86 68 91 68 92 / 40 10 10 0 10 OCF 89 68 91 69 93 / 30 0 10 0 10 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. &&
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 rip current. Local standard time, as filed.
Flagler Beach Ocean Rescue had at least 3 rip current rescues within an hour next to the Flagler Beach Pier.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Florida in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Florida, May 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 952768.