Gusty east winds and dry low level conditions promoted fire growth.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JAX wrote it up.
Gusty east winds and dry low level conditions promoted fire growth.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jacksonville, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 17, 12:47 PM EST, 13 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 147 PM EDT Mon May 17 2021 .AVIATION... [Through 18Z Tuesday] High confidence in VFR conditions prevailing through the period, though an occasional MVFR ceiling during the pre-dawn hours Tuesday cannot be entirely ruled out. Intermittently gusty easterly winds will continue into the early evening before waning and becoming light (at or less than 5 knots) overnight. Easterly breeziness is will return by 13/14z Tuesday. A stray shower may track inland from adjacent coastal waters toward the end of the period, but confidence is too low to include any mention at this time. && .PREV DISCUSSION [952 AM EDT]... .NEAR TERM.../through Tonight/... A mid/upper level ridge currently stretches from the Eastern Great Lakes southward into the Southern Appalachians. This is supporting high pressure north of the region centered over the Mid Atlantic states with light onshore easterly winds at the coast around 5-10 mph. The onshore winds are keeping temperatures milder at the coast in the low to mid 60s early this morning while radiational cooling and near calm conditions inland are allowing temperatures to fall into the low to mid 50s. The mid/upper level ridge will amplify through tonight along the spine of the Appalachians as a northern stream short wave trough strengthens and dives and from SE Canada into New England. High pressure to our north will settle eastward into the western Atlantic waters off the Mid Atlantic coast and continue easterly onshore winds today around 10-20 mph with some gusts up to around 25 mph at the beaches and diminishing inland to around 5-15 mph. Skies will begin mostly sunny this morning with some intrusion of stratocumulus clouds over NE FL areas and up to the SE GA coast as PWAT levels rise through the day to above 1.00 inch ahead of weak inverted troughing over the coastal waters which could develop a few light showers offshore, but not expecting showers to move inland at this time except for very brief light rain so have silent pops again along the NE FL coast. Some additional high thin clouds will move overhead as upper level jet stream winds increase during the day which will lead to partly cloudy skies this afternoon and evening. High temperatures will be near to just slightly below normal in the mid 80s inland and the upper 70s to around 80 degrees at the beaches. Tonight, Skies will be partly cloudy with marine stratocumulus clouds over coastal NE FL that could produce a quick sprinkle or brief light shower along the I-95 corridor of NE FL towards dawn with cirrus clouds remaining over the area. Despite the uptick in moisture over the area, fog is not expected as enough low level dry air remains over the region with less radiational cooling due to increased cloud cover. Overnight lows will fall into the low 60s inland and into the mid 60s to around 70 degrees at the coast. .SHORT TERM.../Tuesday through Thursday night/... Surface high pressure will be centered to the northeast through this period. At 500mb the region will be under a ridge. The position of the surface high will continue the onshore flow, with moisture increasing this period. Cloud production and any precipitation potential will be enhanced by any inverted surface troughs that develop over coastal waters and move ashore. The upper high will keep systems aloft from moving through, and help to limit convective potential. At this point, expect very limited potential for showers this period. With the onshore flow, temperatures will be warmest inland during the day, and warmest near the coast at night. Highs will range from around 80 at the coast to the mid 80s inland. Lows will range from around 70 at the coast to the lower 60s inland. .LONG TERM.../Friday through Sunday/... The surface high and high aloft will move more toward the northwest on Friday into Saturday. The highs will track more to the northwest Saturday night into Sunday allowing a front to move south down the east coast into the region. Limited moisture is available this period for showers though. Temperatures will trend warmer than average this period. ...MARINE... High pressure will be northeast of the region through the upcoming week, providing an extended period of onshore flow. Elevated winds and seas will return Tuesday with Small Craft conditions arriving by Wednesday and lasting until the end of the week. High Rip current risk will also return to NE FL beaches on Tuesday and all beaches by Wednesday through the end of the week. Rip Currents: Moderate today for NE FL and SE GA beaches. High Risk returns Tuesday for NE FL beaches with moderate risk for SE GA beaches. .MARINE... High pressure will remain nearly stationary to the northeast through the week leading to a prolonged period of onshore flow, with gusty expected afternoons along the coast. Isolated to widely scattered showers may develop during the daytime hours with the development of a coastal trough each afternoon. Small Craft Advisory conditions will be possible Wednesday and Thursday as high pressure to the northeast strengthens and migrates southwestward. Rip Currents: Prolonged onshore flow will lead likely lead to rip current development, especially in the afternoon with peaking onshore winds. TODAY - Moderate Risk of Rip Currents TUESDAY - High Risk of Rip Currents .FIRE WEATHER... High pressure will remain nearly stationary to the northeast through the week leading to a prolonged period of onshore flow, with gusty expected afternoons along the coast. Strong easterly transport and a deep mixed layer will lead to areas of high dispersion this afternoon and again Tuesday. Fuels will continue to dry out and likely become critical through the week due to a lack of meaningful wetting rains. Though fuels are expected to cure, minimum humidities will remain above critical amid the onshore wind regime. Elevated fire danger is likely along the coast this week during the afternoons with cured fuels and strong onshore wind. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 58 83 60 83 59 / 0 0 0 10 10 SSI 67 81 68 81 67 / 0 0 10 10 10 JAX 63 81 65 81 66 / 0 0 10 10 10 SGJ 66 79 67 79 67 / 0 0 10 10 10 GNV 59 84 61 84 61 / 0 0 10 10 10 OCF 61 86 64 85 63 / 0 0 10 10 10 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. &&
1 wildfire. Local standard time, as filed.
The Oscar Aston fire in St. Johns county was near Oscar Aston Road and the Watson Island State Forest. Fire crews responded around 2 pm when the fire was near 80 acres. By 9 pm, the fire had burned up to 675 acres and was 75 percent contained. There was not immediate threat to structures.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Florida in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Florida, May 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 952919.