Rip Current in Florida, March 31, 2021

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
234 PM EDT Wed Mar 31 2021

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM (Rest of Today through Thursday):

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms have developed this
afternoon mainly across the interior sections as well as the Lake
Okeechobee region. The chances of showers and thunderstorms will
remain in place during the evening and into the overnight hours
mainly over the Lake Okeechobee region as a frontal boundary slowly
approaches from the north. Some patchy fog cannot be ruled out over
the interior sections late tonight as winds will diminish out ahead
of the approaching frontal boundary. Low temperatures will remain on
the mild side as they will range from the upper 60s over Glades,
Hendry, and inland Collier counties to the lower 70s over the east
coast metro areas.

On Thursday, the cold front will slowly move across the region. Out
ahead of this front, the chances of showers and thunderstorms will
increase throughout the morning and into the afternoon hours.
Something that will continue to be monitored for will be the
potential for localized flooding along the east coast as showers and
thunderstorms develop throughout the day. With the potential for the
east coast sea breeze remaining pressed up against the immediate
coast, this could set up additional convergence along the coastline
which would provide an opportunity for training of showers and
thunderstorms with heavier rainfall over the same area. Gusty winds
cannot be ruled out as well in the stronger thunderstorms especially
farther to the north where instability factors will be higher in the
afternoon as the front begins to push through. High temperatures
will generally range from the lower to mid 80s across the east coast
metro areas to the upper 80s across southeastern Collier County.

LONG TERM (Thursday Night through Tuesday):

Models depict a trough migrating eastward across the eastern
seaboard, pushing an associated cold front into central/southern
peninsula Thu night into Friday morning. Best dynamics seem to
remain well north of the area, thus, only a few storms may
develop, along with scattered showers through the morning hours.

Strong cold air advection is expected in the wake of the FROPA
later on Friday with temperatures falling below normals, and a
much drier airmass descending upon the area. Winds shift to a more
northerly flow behind the FROPA, with possible breezy periods. By
Sun, winds become ENE, remaining breezy at times. Therefore,
there are good chances of elevated fire weather threat, especially
over interior and Gulf areas through early next week. The main
synoptic feature driving the drier weather will be a robust high
pressure system spreading across much of the SE CONUS, which will
gradually migrate southward towards the area.

Low-end chances of showers remain in the forecast for each day through
early next week, but benign conditions should prevail for the
most part. In terms of temperatures, interior and Gulf areas are
expected to warm up and reach, or slightly exceed normals by
early next week.

&&

.AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...
Mainly VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period.
Southeasterly winds this afternoon will diminish this evening.
Patchy fog may develop across the interior overnight, however, it
should stay away from the terminals. Chances of showers will
increase out ahead of an approaching cold front during the overnight
hours and into the day on Thursday. There could be periods of MVFR
or even IFR in and around the heavier showers.

&&

.MARINE...
A moderate southeasterly flow will continue for the rest of this
afternoon over the local waters as the pressure gradient across the
region tightens out ahead of an approaching cold front. This cold
front will move through the local waters on Thursday increasing the
chances of showers and thunderstorms during this time frame. Behind
the front, north to northeasterly winds will increase rapidly and
seas will build through the end of the week and into the upcoming
weekend. This will create hazardous marine conditions across the
local waters during this time frame.

.BEACH FORECAST...
A high risk of rip currents will continue across the Atlantic
Coast beaches for the rest of this afternoon and into this evening
as a breezy southeasterly flow remains in place. An elevated risk
of rip currents will continue through the weekend as a strong
northeasterly flow develops along with a building swell in the
Atlantic waters. Rip currents may increase along the Gulf Coast
Beaches on Friday due to an increasing northwesterly wind and
increasing seas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            72  85  62  75 /  20  60  30  10
West Kendall     70  86  61  77 /  20  50  30  10
Opa-Locka        70  85  60  74 /  20  60  30  10
Homestead        69  84  61  75 /  20  40  30  10
Fort Lauderdale  72  84  62  74 /  30  70  40  10
N Ft Lauderdale  71  84  61  73 /  30  70  30  10
Pembroke Pines   71  84  61  75 /  30  60  30  10
West Palm Beach  70  84  59  71 /  40  70  30  10
Boca Raton       71  84  60  73 /  30  70  30  10
Naples           70  81  54  75 /  20  30   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

Tonight/Thursday and Aviation/Marine...CWC
Thursday Night through Wednesday...AR

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Hazardous Weather Outlook for South Florida
National Weather Service Miami FL
952 AM EDT Wed Mar 31 2021

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
010200-
Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay-
Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM
excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry-
Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Coastal Collier-Inland Collier-
Inland Broward-Metro Broward-Inland Miami-Dade-Metro Miami-Dade-
Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach-Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami-
Dade-Far South Miami-Dade-
Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
952 AM EDT Wed Mar 31 2021

...High Rip Current Risk Atlantic Beaches...
...Isolated Thunderstorms Lake Okeechobee Region This Afternoon...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Rip currents: There is a high risk of rip currents along the
Atlantic Coast beaches.

Thunderstorms: Thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon, mainly
across the interior and Lake Okeechobee region. The strongest
thunderstorms could contain heavy downpours and gusty winds.

Waterspouts: Waterspouts are possible across the Atlantic waters as
well as Lake Okeechobee.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

The elevated rip current risk will continue through the weekend for
the Atlantic beaches and it will likely increase for the Gulf
beaches.

On Thursday, a cold frontal passage will result in the potential for
thunderstorms, especially across southeast Florida.

Marine conditions will deteriorate behind the front as northerly
winds strengthen and seas build across the Atlantic and Gulf waters.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

For more information...visit the National Weather Service in
Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.