Damaging Winds in Alabama, March 31, 2021

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
336 PM EDT Wed Mar 31 2021

.NEAR TERM [Through Thursday]...

Line of thunderstorms stretching across all of central Alabama will
continue to sag southeastward through the remainder of the
afternoon. The line will likely reach SE Alabama by around 21-23Z.
Plenty of sunshine ahead of the storms has allowed temperatures to
warm into the upper 70s, leading to fairly steep low-level lapse
rates. In addition, some mid-level dry air is helping to support
DCAPE values in the 600-900j/kg range. This environment will support
some strong to severe storms as the line moves into the area this
evening. Damaging straight-line winds remain the primary threat.
However, a brief tornado cannot be ruled out. Once the sun sets, the
boundary layer should cool fairly quickly, diminishing the favorable
low-level thermodynamics and reducing the severe threat by mid-
evening as the line continues moving southeast.

Behind the front, strong cold air advection force temperatures down
rapidly (up to 20 degrees over the course of 1-2 hours). Strong
northwesterly winds will also develop behind the front, with
sustained winds of 20-25 mph and gusts of 30-35 mph. These values
are a little below wind advisory criteria, so will hold off on
issuing one at this time.

.SHORT TERM [Thursday Night Through Friday Night]...

The short term period will predominantly be characterized by a few
cold nights across the region, with strong CAA expected behind the
cold front on Thursday. This will lead to temperatures across the
region on Friday morning in the mid to upper 30s, with mid 30s
likely across SE Alabama and SW Georgia, and upper 30s across the
Florida Panhandle and Big Bend. With winds remaining elevated
through the night Thursday night, wind chill temperatures will
drop into the upper 20s across SE Alabama and SW Georgia, and low
30s across the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend. At this time, RH
values on Friday morning do not seem high enough for frost to
develop; however, sensitive plants should still be protected given
the extreme cold temperatures that are expected, especially since
the growing season has been well under way across much of the
region. Friday's high temperatures will likewise be cool, with
much of the area only climbing into the low to mid 60s.

.LONG TERM [Saturday Through Wednesday]...

Through the long term period, deep layer ridging is expected to
take over across the region. A surface high pressure system on the
backside of the upper level trough that will come through
Wednesday night will dominate the overall weather across the
region through the remainder of the long term period. Initially
through Saturday evening, the surface high pressure system is
expected to slowly move across the lower Ohio river valley, which
will lead to northerly winds across the region through Saturday.
As the surface high slides east into the Mid-Atlantic by Sunday,
easterly to southeasterly flow is expected to take over, which
will subsequently lead to rising heights as well across our region
as the deep layer ridging previously discussed above starts to
move into the region. Beyond Saturday, a gradual warming trend
will continue, with highs in the 80s returning by Monday once
again. Low temperatures will subsequently also have a gradual
warming trend, as lows increase into the mid 50s by Monday night
as well.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Thursday]

VFR conditions will deteriorate from west to east late this
afternoon as a strong cold front moves across the region. Expect
MVFR conditions and TSRA just ahead of the front, especially at
KDHN and KECP. Winds will shift quickly in the wake of the front,
with strong northwesterly winds expected through the remainder of
the TAF period at all terminals.

&&

.MARINE...

Hazardous boating conditions are expected to develop tonight
behind a passing cold front that will move through the region.
Southwesterly flow will quickly shift to northwesterly, and
eventually northerly behind the cold front, and sustained winds
are expected to be strong at around 25-30 knots, with gusts to
near 40 knots at times. These conditions are expected primarily
west of the Apalachicola inlet. East of the inlet, advisory level
conditions are expected to still occur with elevated winds and
seas. Seas west of the inlet will build to around 6-8 feet and
occasional sets up to 10 feet will be possible. east of the inlet,
winds will still be elevated, but likely only around 4-7 feet, and
occasional sets up to 8 feet possible. With these hazardous
conditions, a Gale warning has been issued west of the
Apalachicola inlet, and a small craft advisory has been issued
east of the inlet. These conditions are expected to linger through
Friday morning, where conditions will finally drop to exercise
caution levels.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A strong cold front will move through the region tonight. A cold,
dry airmass will be in place tomorrow and Friday with RH minimum
values in the mid to upper 20s. Winds will be strong tomorrow around
20 mph with higher gusts. High dispersions will continue on
Thursday. At this time, red flag conditions are not expected due to
fuel moisture levels. However, we will continue to monitor this
timeframe closely.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

A small portion of SE Alabama has been included in a marginal risk
for excessive rainfall for today; however, much of the area will
likely only see between 1-2 inches, with localized amounts near
3-4 inches possible. This will likely only cause minor flooding at
this time, and may raise local rivers to near action stage. Due
to the prolonged dry period beyond today, there are no flooding
concerns at this time.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   50  63  38  62  37 /  40   0   0   0   0
Panama City   48  62  40  62  42 /  50   0   0   0   0
Dothan        42  58  35  59  36 /  80   0   0   0   0
Albany        45  60  35  59  35 /  80   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      50  63  37  60  36 /  30   0   0   0   0
Cross City    54  66  39  64  37 /  30   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  50  63  41  62  45 /  30   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk from 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ Thursday through
     late Thursday night for Coastal Gulf.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Thursday to 11 AM EDT Friday for
     Apalachee Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to
     Ochlockonee River FL out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From
     Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal
     waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
     NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Thursday to 10 AM CDT Friday for
     Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Apalachicola FL out 20
     NM-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton
     County Line FL out 20 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Mexico
     Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Mexico Beach to
     Okaloosa Walton County Line FL from 20 to 60 NM.

     Gale Warning from 1 AM to 4 PM CDT Thursday for Coastal waters
     from Mexico Beach to Apalachicola FL out 20 NM-Coastal
     waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL
     out 20 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Mexico Beach FL from
     20 to 60 NM-Waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton
     County Line FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

NEAR TERM...Camp
SHORT TERM...Bunker
LONG TERM...Bunker
AVIATION...Camp
MARINE...Bunker
FIRE WEATHER...Camp
HYDROLOGY...Bunker