A warm front across central Florida on 2/6 lifted northward as a surface low developed along the front in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The warm front progressed northward to just south of the I-10 corridor during the night 2/6 into the early morning hours of 2/7 as the surface low track east along the front and then offshore of the local Atlantic coast early in the morning 2/7.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JAX wrote it up.
A warm front across central Florida on 2/6 lifted northward as a surface low developed along the front in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The warm front progressed northward to just south of the I-10 corridor during the night 2/6 into the early morning hours of 2/7 as the surface low track east along the front and then offshore of the local Atlantic coast early in the morning 2/7. Very strong shear was in place across the area with elevated instability with mid level lapse rates 7-7.5 deg C/km. Some wind damage with gusts of 40-50 mph was reported as well as hail as large as quarter size. Widespread rainfall of 2-4 inches occurred in a couple of swaths across NE FL within 24 hrs which produced some localized flooding.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jacksonville, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 5, 8:51 PM EST, 3 hours 9 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
851 PM EST Fri Feb 5 2021
.UPDATE...
Cold front continues to edge slowly southeastward this evening,
and resides from the Suwannee Valley through the I-10 corridor
this mid evening. The south and southwest winds ahead of the front
will continue to advect moist air into NE FL this evening. The
combination of a broad longwave upper level trof over the central
and eastern CONUS combined with a couple impulses will continue to
provide overriding showery precipitation over the region
overnight. Surface winds following the slowly moving front will
shift to be northwesterly, which will bring in cooler temperatures
tonight. Overnight lows are expected to be in the low-to-mid 40s
in SE GA and upper 40s and lower 50s in NE FL.
Light to moderate showers will persist Saturday as an elongated
mid/upper level vortlobe advances towards our area from the Gulf
of Mexico. The stalled boundary to the south will lift northward
as a weak warm front and position itself between the Florida-
Georgia border and the I-10 corridor. Late Sunday afternoon and
early evening a surface low will travel along this boundary from
the NE GOM to the northeast, bringing widespread showers and a
chance for a few isolated strong to severe thunderstorms. The best
chance for isolated severe storms will be south of the boundary,
from Gainesville to St Augustine, southward into the north-central
FL where dewpoints rise to the mid 60s with max temps in the upper
60s to lower 70s. SPC has this area in a Marginal risk for severe
thunderstorms. Just depends how much conditional instability can
be achieved late in the day with existing cloud cover may be a
precluding factor. Will have to watch for breaks in cloud cover
with a modified sounding showing some potential isold strong to
severe potential with further surface heating in concert with the
moisture advection.
Current forecast has these trends well in hand, and will be just
be making some fine-tuning of current trends.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION [642 PM EST]...
.NEAR TERM [Tonight Through Saturday]...
A broad longwave mid/upper level trough extends over the central
and eastern United States and will eject several shortwaves near
our area tonight and tomorrow. The cold front associated with the
trough will continue to progress south across our area through
this evening before stalling over north central Florida late
tonight.
Breezy winds ahead of the front are southwesterly, which
are bringing in plentiful moisture from the Gulf to support
widespread showers this evening. An isolated thunderstorm is
possible in the vicinity of the Suwannee Valley where dewpoints
will reach near 60 degrees, but instability is limited. Surface
winds following the front will shift to be northwesterly, which
will bring in cooler temperatures tonight. Overnight lows are
expected to be in the low-to-mid 40s in SE GA and upper 40s and
lower 50s in NE FL.
Tomorrow, light to moderate showers will persist and another
mid/upper level shortwave will eject towards our area. The
stalled boundary to the south will lift slightly north as a weak
warm front and position itself near the Florida-Georgia border.
Tomorrow afternoon and evening a surface low will travel along
this boundary to the northeast, bringing widespread showers and a
chance for a few isolated strong to severe thunderstorms. The
best chance for isolated severe storms will be south of the
boundary, from Gainesville to St Augustine and south. SPC has this
area in a Marginal risk for severe thunderstorms.
Rainfall totals for the next 24 hours will be at least 0.5" for
most of the area with locally higher amounts near 2" possible.
High temperatures tomorrow will have a broad spread that will
depend on the exact positioning of the frontal boundary. Forecast
highs are in the 50s for SE GA, 60s for most of NE FL, and in the
low-to- mid 70s for our southernmost FL counties.
.SHORT TERM [Saturday Night Through Tuesday]...
A wave of low pressure will move northeast over area Saturday
evening, with an associated cold front moving across region
overnight, then exiting to the southeast Sunday morning. Chance
for showers with embedded thunderstorms as the area moves through.
High pressure will build to the northwest during the day Sunday,
to the north Sunday night, and northeast Monday. This high will
provide a few days of dry weather.
A wave of low pressure will move northeast into region Monday
night into Tuesday bringing the potential for a round of showers
and thunderstorms.
Temperatures will trend above normal for Saturday night, then
return to near normal following the front for Sunday through
Monday night, then above normal on Tuesday.
.LONG TERM [Tuesday Night Through Friday]...
A boundary will stretch across the region through this period. This
boundary will waver north and south through the period, as waves
move east along it. Rounds of showers with potential for
thunderstorms expected.
Temperatures this period trend above normal through Thursday night,
with a trend toward near to below normal readings for Friday.
.AVIATION...
[Through 00Z Sunday]
Patches of drizzle with isolated to scattered showers are occuring
over the forecast area that impacting or will impact the
terminals with occasional MVFR and IFR ceiling and vsby tonight.
A cold front, currently resides from the Suwannee Valley to
coastal SE GA this evening will continue to advance to the
southeast tonight. Prevailing ceilings expected to lower to IFR
and potential exists for VLIFR later tonight and into Saturday
morning. Winds mainly southwest around 4 to 8 kts with a few
higher gusts. Winds will shift to the northwest then north as the
front passes over the terminals later this evening. The front
will stall south of the area Saturday morning and attempt to push
north as a warm front Saturday afternoon. Thus, showers will
remain possible Saturday, with t-storms possible after this TAF
forecast period.
.MARINE...
Southwesterly, breezy flow ahead of the cold front approaching
from the northwest will shift to be northwesterly after the
passing of the front tonight. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect
for offshore water through tonight with winds around 20 kts
expected. Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions for nearshore
waters through tonight with winds 15-20 kts expected. Saturday,
onshore northwesterly flow early will shift to southerly as the
front lifts as a weak warm front. A low will move northeast along
the frontal boundary Saturday night and move out of our waters
Sunday morning. high pressure will build to the north Sunday into
Monday. Another wave of low pressure will cross the area Monday
night into Tuesday. The frontal boundary will stay in place across
our area through the end of the week with several waves of low
pressure moving along it.
Rip Currents: Low risk today with offshore flow, Moderate risk
Saturday with onshore flow and surf 2-3 ft.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 43 52 44 59 38 / 70 90 90 0 0
SSI 46 58 50 60 47 / 70 80 90 10 0
JAX 47 62 53 64 47 / 80 70 90 10 0
SGJ 50 67 58 68 51 / 70 70 80 10 0
GNV 49 70 58 69 45 / 80 80 90 10 0
OCF 52 75 61 72 48 / 60 80 90 10 0
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for Waters from
Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to
60 NM-Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20
to 60 NM.
&&The Jacksonville radar (KJAX), 37 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 04:59 UTC.
4 heavy rain, 4 thunderstorm wind, 1 hail, 1 lightning, 1 funnel cloud. Local standard time, as filed.
Minor street flooding was observed near the intersection of Oakdale and Moody Road in Lakeside. About 2.2 inches of storm total rainfall was measured in the area.
Minor street flooding was observed with storm total rainfall of 3.65 inches.
A spotter measured 3.62 inches of rainfall in the Glynea area of Jacksonville since midnight on 2/6.
A spotter measured a storm total of 3.25 inches since midnight on 2/6.
Minor damage occurred to a home in Keystone Heights with minor to some moderate tree damage. The time of damage was based on radar. The cost of damage was estimated for inclusion of the event in Storm Data.
Quarter size hail was reported in Alachua.
Lightning struck a tree that caused part of the tree to fall onto a home in Marion Oaks. The caused minor roof damage. The time of damage was based on radar. The cost of damage was estimated for inclusion of the event in Storm Data.
A video of a funnel cloud was taken near the Grand Reserve Neighborhood. The time of the event was based on radar.
Trees were damage in the Virginia Village area of eastern Clay county south of Green Cove. The time of damage was based on radar. The cost of damage was estimated for inclusion of the event in Storm Data.
Wires were blown down near the intersection of State Road 100 and Berta Road and State Road 100 in the Daytona North area.
A tree was blown down on Woodhaven Drive near US Highway 1 in Palm Coast.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Florida in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Florida, February 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 934315, 934316, 934322, 934326, 934319, 934292, 934325, 934324, 934323, 934332, 934330.