NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 12, 2:47 PM EST, 3 hours 42 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 12, 2:47 PM EST, 3 hours 42 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
347 PM EDT Mon Jul 12 2021
.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front across northern New Jersey and eastern Pennsylvania
today will lift to the north on Tuesday. Strong high pressure
remains anchored off the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic coasts for much
of the week as several disturbances eject out ahead of an upper
level low over the Midwest. Offshore high pressure breaks down late
this week, and then a cold front slowly works its way through the
region next weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
**Severe Thunderstorm Watch number 374 is in effect.**
Very unsettled conditions are expected for the remainder of this
afternoon into the evening and first half of the overnight period. A
frontal boundary that is currently draped across northern New
Jersey and northern Pennsylvania will slowly sag southward
through the rest of this afternoon and into this evening and
overnight. Meanwhile, multiple outflow boundaries and sea
breezes and bay breezes are moving across the forecast area this
afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms have already
begun to develop across the area, and will continue to develop
and spread across the area through this afternoon as a short
wave/vorticity impulse moves across the area. A very unstable
airmass is in place with temperatures well into the mid-upper
80s and lower 90s for some areas, combined with dewpoints in the
low to mid 70s. CAPE values of at least 2000-3000 J/kg are in
place across the area. Shear values are relatively weak with
effective bulk shear values of 20-25 knots. However, with the
amount of instability, very strong updrafts are expected, which
when combine with DCAPE values of 800-1000 J/kg could lead to
areas of strong, damaging winds. While there are fairly large
CAPE values above the freezing level, the freezing level and
wet-bulb zero height are pretty high, so while widespread large
hail may not occur, there could be some isolated large hail
mixed in with more likely sub-severe hail. This convection will
continue through the afternoon and into this evening, before
another round of showers and thunderstorms develop to our west
and move into the area in association with another short
wave/vorticity impulse move into the area. Heavy rainfall will
continue to be a threat for the remainder of this afternoon and
into this evening as PW values remain near 2 inches for much of
the area. The Flash Flood Watch will remain in place into the
overnight hours due to the high moisture content and the slow
motion expected with the storms.
Once the short wave/vorticity impulse passes to our northeast
overnight, the threat for showers and thunderstorms will diminish.
However, as the front begins to stall, areas of patchy fog may
develop north of the boundary, especially where rain falls this
afternoon and tonight. Widespread dense fog is not expected, but a
few locations of locally dense fog cannot be ruled out.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The first half of Tuesday is expected to be dry, although areas of
fog will continue to linger through the morning hours. Once the low
clouds and fog burn off and lift, another unstable day is expected
on Tuesday. The frontal boundary will remain in place across the
area during the day, which will again provide a focus for showers
and thunderstorms to develop. PW values lower below 2 inches, but
still remain near 1.75 inches, so heavy rain will continue to be a
threat. CAPE values approach 2000-3000 J/kg along and south and west
of the boundary while shear values again approach 20-25 knots.
Strong updrafts, combined with DCAPE values of 1000 J/kg or more
could again lead to some strong to damaging winds. While there are
fairly large CAPE values above the freezing level, the freezing
level and wet-bulb zero height are pretty high, so while widespread
large hail may not occur, there could be some isolated large hail
mixed in with more likely sub-severe hail.
Any showers and thunderstorms that develop during the afternoon and
evening hours will dissipate and move to the northeast as
instability wanes and lift associated with a weak afternoon short
wave moves to the northeast.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
No changes made to the long term.
Another hot and humid day on tap for Wednesday, but the offshore
high begins to break down late Wednesday and Wednesday night. A cold
front with an upper trough approaches from the west Wednesday and
begins to work its way through the region.
Weak high pressure passes through the region Thursday and Thursday
night resulting in a nearly rain-free day.
On Friday, another cold front approaches from the west. Convection
will develop late Friday and Friday evening as it passes through the
region. The cold front is a slow mover so it will take a couple days
to make its way through the region with several rounds of
showers. rs and thunderstorms. The front may not clear the
region until Sunday. The front will become stationary along the
Mid-Atlantic going into the new week.
High temperatures will be in the lower 90s through Saturday, and
then behind the cold front, highs will be in the mid and upper 80s
on Sunday, and then possibly a few degrees cooler than that on
Monday.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
Rest of today...VFR conditions are in place across the TAF sites.
However, this improvement will only be temporary as showers and
thunderstorms are expected to continue to develop across the area
during the remainder of the afternoon into this evening. Any showers
or thunderstorms will likely lead to temporary lower conditions.
Winds will remain south to southwest 5-10 knots with gusts 15-20
knots, before becoming variable later this afternoon as a front
begins to shift southward. Locally higher winds will occur in
thunderstorms. Moderate confidence overall but low confidence on
exact placement and timing of convection.
Tonight...VFR conditions will begin the evening outside of showers
and thunderstorms which will likely lead to temporary lower
conditions. MVFR then IFR ceilings are expected to develop and move
into the area through the evening and into the overnight. ACY and
MIV may be the only sites that do now drop below VFR. Patchy fog
will also likely develop overnight for many areas that receive rain
will reduce visibilities overnight. Variable winds begin the period,
before shifting to more east or southeast 5-10 knots later this
evening and overnight. Moderate confidence.
Tuesday...IFR conditions likely begin the period from PHL northward,
with MVFR or VFR south. Ceilings lift to MVFR by midday, and may
eventually return to VFR during the afternoon.
There is a chance of showers and thunderstorms for eastern
Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey during the afternoon, which may
lead to temporary lower conditions. Light and variable winds for
much of the morning, becoming south to southeast 5-10 knots for many
areas except southern New Jersey, central/southern Delaware, and
eastern Maryland which may be south to southwest. Moderate
confidence.
Tuesday night...Once any showers or thunderstorms end, VFR
conditions are expected to prevail through the overnight for most
areas. Southeast winds 5-10 knots, may become light and variable
overnight.
Outlook...
Wednesday through Saturday...Overall, a VFR forecast most of the
time. Afternoon and evening SHRA/TSRA, mainly along and west of the
I-95 corridor terminals will result in temporary sub-VFR conditions
should a storm pass over a given terminal. Confidence is moderate.
&&
.MARINE...
Rest of today-Tuesday night...Conditions are expected to remain
below Small Craft Advisory levels through Tuesday night. However,
winds could occasionally gust around 20 knots and seas will
remain around 3-4 feet. There is a chance of showers and
thunderstorms which will lead to locally higher winds and waves.
Outlook...
Wednesday through Saturday...Overall, sub-SCA conditions. E-SE
winds on Tuesday, W-SW winds 10-20 kt Wednesday and Thursday,
S-SW winds 10-20 knots Friday and Saturday. Seas 3-4 feet. The
chances for showers and thunderstorms are better inland as
opposed to the waters, but showers and thunderstorms are
possible in the late afternoon and early evening. Limited
chances on Thursday.
Rip Currents...
There is a Moderate risk for the development of dangerous rip
currents today with southerly winds increasing from 20 to 25
knots and wave heights from 2 to 4 feet.
Winds will vary between southerly for the southern half of the
New Jersey coast and Delaware coasts. for the northern half of
the New Jersey coast, winds may be more easterly through the
day. Meanwhile, waves are expected to be from 2 to 3 feet, thus
we are expecting a Moderate risk for rip currents to continue
into Tuesday for the New Jersey coast and Delaware Beaches.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for PAZ054-055-060>062-
070-071-101>106.
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for PAZ070-071-104-106.
NJ...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for NJZ001-007>010-012-
013-015-017>019.
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for NJZ017>019.
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NJZ020-027.
DE...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for DEZ001.
MD...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for MDZ012-015-019-020.
MARINE...None.
&&
Synopsis...Franklin/MPS
Near Term...Robertson
Short Term...Robertson
Long Term...Franklin/MPS
Aviation...Franklin/MPS
Marine...Franklin/MPS/Robertson