NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 31, 6:26 AM EST, 4 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jan 31, 6:26 AM EST, 4 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
626 AM EST Sun Jan 31 2021
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will move through the Ohio Valley today. A secondary
low develops along the southeastern coast tonight and tracks up into
the Mid-Atlantic. This low will slowly move northeastward through
Tuesday and into the Canadian Maritimes on Wednesday. High pressure
will build in from the west through Thursday. A cold front will
cross the region late Friday night into Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Bands of snow are lifting north into portions of Delaware, so
will go ahead and increase PoPs a bit to cover for this. There
are some other bands back towards the D.C. area that will
continue to lift to the north as well, and may move into
Delmarva by late morning.
Otherwise, cold and dry over the region as the base of high
pressure over eastern Canada is sagging into northern New York
and northern New England, and another area of high pressure is
off the Mid- Atlantic coast. The center of low pressure is over
the Midwest and lower Great Lakes and will drift east today.
Meanwhile, a secondary low will begin to form over the Southeast
U.S. as the base of a deep upper trough digs through the Gulf
Coast states.
Surface dew points are climbing into the teens and low 20s
throughout, and will continue to rise through the day as north
to northeast winds back to the east.
Overrunning precip will develop out ahead of a developing warm
front as that secondary low forms. However, it will take quite
some time for precip to reach the ground for most of the region
given how cold and dry it is. So for most of the day, any precip
that forms will fall as snow, and areas impacted will mainly be
Delmarva, southern New Jersey, and the Delaware Valley,
including Philadelphia. Enough warm air should lift into
southern Delaware late in the afternoon to allow snow to mix
with and change to rain.
In general, 2-3 inches of snow will fall over the western suburbs of
Philadelphia, Delmarva, and extreme southern New Jersey, and 1-2
inches up through Berks county, Philadelphia, and I-195 in New
Jersey.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A complex and prolonged storm system remains on track to impact the
region through Tuesday.
The secondary low that will begin to form over the Mid-Atlantic on
Sunday will lift north along the coast tonight, and will be just off
the Delmarva Peninsula by daybreak Monday. The original primary low
that was over the Great Lakes continues to track east tonight, and
will merge with the secondary low Monday morning, and menders off
the New Jersey coast for a prolonged period of time until a closed
upper low passes over the region Monday night, and slowly departs on
Tuesday.
The 00Z suite of model guidance continues to bring the surface low a
bit farther west and a bit farther to the north. As a result, latest
trends are for the heaviest axis of precip to be across the northern
zones, and with strong banding across those northern zones as strong
shortwave energy lifts into the region. In addition, some mid-level
warm air with 925-850 mb temps to 0C lifts north through Delmarva,
along the I-95 corridor to Philadelphia, and up to I-195 in New
Jersey late tonight and into Monday morning. In these areas, snow
will mix with or change to sleet, resulting in lowered snow amounts
that might otherwise fall. Precip changes to plain rain in most of
Delaware and the eastern shores of Maryland and extreme southern New
Jersey late tonight through Monday. The rain/snow line should get as
far north and west as the I-95 corridor, and north and west of the I-
95 corridor, precip will remain all snow. Snow will be heavy at
times across the southern Poconos and northern New Jersey during the
day Monday and into Monday evening due to strong banding.
Went ahead and increased QPF, and as a result, snow fall, across the
northern half of the forecast area, and also lowered QPF and snow
amounts across the far southern half as some dry slotting may lift
into Delmarva.
Strong low level jet of 65-75 kt at 925-850 mb lifts along the New
Jersey coast, and with a tight easterly pressure gradient forming
between low pressure off the New Jersey coast and high pressure over
the Northeast, gusty winds of 25-35 mph will develop across much of
the region, and wind gusts as high as 50 mph along the New Jersey
coast.
In terms of snowfall, 12-18 inches of snow will fall across the
southern Poconos, Lehigh Valley, and northern New Jersey, and 8-12
inches along the I-95 corridor into the western suburbs of
Philadelphia, and 2-4 inches elsewhere tonight through Monday, and
another 1-3 inches of snow along and east of I-95 and 3-5 inches
north and west of I-95 Monday night through Tuesday.
A prolonged Winter Storm Warning remains in effect for the entire
duration of the storm, though additional snowfall on Tuesday will be
minimal as low pressure slowly departs.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Tuesday night through Wednesday night...The stubborn closed upper
low starts to finally move to the east late Tuesday night into
Wednesday, eventually moving into the Canadian Maritimes Wednesday
night. With the surface low pulling away as well, we should see an
end to the precipitation Tuesday evening, with any lingering stuff
being right along the coastal plain of New Jersey. The winds will
remain up through the night and through much of Wednesday as the
pressure gradient is pretty tight due to the departing surface low
and high pressure pushing in from the west. With the right gradient,
expect winds to gust around 25 to 35 mph through the day on
Wednesday but they should taper off as we head towards the evening
as the gradient finally starts to weaken some. Cold air will remain
in the northwest flow so expect a cold night Tuesday night with a
cold day to follow on Wednesday. While we will have ample snow cover
across much of the region, with the winds remaining up overnight and
considerable cloud cover across the region do not anticipate a good
radiational cooling night so kept minimum temps from really dropping
off. Expect overnight lows to be in the teens to mid 20s across our
forecast area with some upper 20s along the immediate coast. Daytime
highs on Wednesday will be cold and remain in the 30s with some mid
to upper 20s across the higher elevations of the southern Poconos
and northwest New Jersey. Expect Wednesday night to be colder due to
less wind, clearing skies, and plenty of snow on the ground. Might
not be cold enough in the current forecast as we tend to bottom out
more than the guidance indicates. Lows will range from the teens to
mid 20s across the region Wednesday night, though would not be
surprised to see them fall into the lower 10s to low 20s due to the
reasons previously mentioned.
Thursday...we finally come out of the grip of the upper low and see
some slight ridging across the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday. Some
warming aloft will start to take place and the airmass will start to
modify. With less wind it won't feel nearly as cold as on Wednesday
with highs reaching into the 30s to lower 40s. However, with a more
south to southwest flow developing by Thursday evening as a warm
front lifts into the region, we will see an increase in low level
moisture. With plenty of snow still expected to be around there is
the potential for some fog to develop Thursday night.
Friday through Saturday...Low pressure will move into the Great
Lakes region and into Canada on Friday. The associated cold front
will move through our forecast area late Friday night into Saturday.
The front appears to stall or slow down as it crosses through our
area with the potential for additional lows to develop along the
boundary. This will keep us in unsettled weather pattern as we go
into the weekend with the chance for rain or snow. Temperatures do
continue to warm on Friday (which may be the warmest day of the
week) with highs reaching into the 40s to lower 50s but as the front
approaches and cloud cover increases we may not see much more
warming than that occur for Saturday, with the highs generally a few
degrees cooler than that day before. As of now the weekend looks to
be messy but some solutions do show a dry period on Saturday before
the next potential system approaches later in the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
Today...VFR through this morning, but conditions will quickly
deteriorate just after midday as snow moves in from the southwest.
Conditions will quickly drop from VFR to IFR in snow, with LIFR
possible. Increasing easterly winds around 10 knots. Moderate
confidence.
Tonight...IFR conditions likely in snow. Visibilities will be
variable but ceilings will drop to IFR and possibly LIFR overnight.
Snow may mix with or changeover to rain at KMIV and KACY. Northeast
to east winds around 10 to 15 knots with gusts around 20 to 30 knots
by late tonight. Low confidence.
Outlook...
Monday through Tuesday night...Mainly IFR conditions expected with
variable visibilities in snow. Mainly snow expected at the terminals
with a period of mixing (SNRAPL) possible at PHL/ILG/PNE during the
day on Monday before it changes back over to all snow. Expect mostly
rain at KMIV and KACy through Monday with a changeover back to snow
Monday night. The snow continues into Tuesday, though it will
lighten and conditions will gradually improve. Periods of heavy
snowfall is likely but confidence in where these occur is low.
Northeast winds 15 to 25 knots with gusts 25 to 35 knots. Some gusts
around 40 knots are possible, especially at KACY. Northerly winds
Monday night will back to the northwest for Tuesday, 10 to 15 knots
with gusts up 30 knots. Low confidence, especially with respect
to heavy snow timing.
Wednesday...VFR. Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30
knots, dropping off to around 10 knots at night. Moderate confidence.
Thursday...VFR. West winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming light southwest
late afternoon. Moderate confidence.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds and seas will ramp up through the day. Gales develop on
all waters by this evening, and then from late tonight through
Monday, NE winds will range from 25-35 kt with 45-55 kt gusts
over the New Jersey Atlantic coastal waters and from 20-30 kt
with 35-45 kt over the Delaware Atlantic coastal waters and
Delaware Bay. Gales continue Monday night through Tuesday, and
SCA conditions continue through Tuesday. Seas will build to
15-20 feet on the NJ ocean waters on Monday.
Outlook...
Tuesday night through Wednesday...Small Craft Advisory conditions
likely. Gales are possible on the southern waters through Wednesday.
Northwest winds around 20 to 25 knots with gusts around 30 to 35
knots. Seas 4 to 7 feet on the ocean waters, falling to 3 to 6
feet on Wednesday.
Wednesday night...Small Craft Advisory conditions likely. Northwest
winds around 15 to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Seas drop
down below 5 feet by late Wednesday night.
Thursday...Sub-advisory conditions expected. Westerly winds around
10 to 20 knots. Seas around 2 to 4 feet.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A coastal low will meander just offshore the NJ coast this Monday
into Tuesday and strong onshore flow is expected develop tonight and
continue through at least Monday night, before potentially acquiring
a more offshore component on Tuesday. Fairly widespread moderate
tidal flooding therefore looks likely over the NJ/DE coasts and
backbays for at least the Monday morning and evening high tides,
with some potential for flooding persisting into the Tuesday AM high
tide (but this is less certain given that the flow will be backing).
Consequently converted the Coastal Flood Watches to Warnings for the
NJ/DE coasts with this package.
There is also the potential for minor-to moderate tidal flooding
over portions of Delaware Bay, however confidence is a bit too low
at this time (and there is still technically 24 hours to the first
high tide cycle of interest) to upgrade. Therefore will retain the
watch there and the next shift can decide if it should be converted
to a warning or advisory.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Winter Storm Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST
Tuesday for PAZ054-055-060>062-103>106.
Winter Storm Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST
Tuesday for PAZ070-071-101-102.
NJ...Winter Storm Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST
Tuesday for NJZ001-007>010-012-015.
Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 AM EST
Tuesday for NJZ021>023-025-026.
Coastal Flood Watch from Monday morning through Tuesday
afternoon for NJZ021.
Coastal Flood Warning from 7 AM Monday to 5 PM EST Tuesday for
NJZ012>014-020-022>027.
Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EST Monday for NJZ024.
Winter Storm Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST
Tuesday for NJZ013-014-016>020-027.
DE...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 AM EST
Tuesday for DEZ002-003.
Coastal Flood Watch from Monday morning through Tuesday
afternoon for DEZ002.
Coastal Flood Warning from 7 AM Monday to 5 PM EST Tuesday for
DEZ003-004.
Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EST Monday for DEZ004.
Winter Storm Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST
Tuesday for DEZ001.
MD...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 AM EST
Tuesday for MDZ020.
Winter Storm Warning from 10 AM this morning to 10 AM EST
Tuesday for MDZ012-015-019.
MARINE...Storm Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EST Monday for
ANZ450>453.
Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EST Tuesday for
ANZ454-455.
Gale Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EST Monday for
ANZ430-431.
&&
Synopsis...Meola
Near Term...MPS
Short Term...MPS
Long Term...Meola
Aviation...Meola
Marine...Meola/MPS
Tides/Coastal Flooding...WFO PHI