NWS Pueblo, CO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 23, 2:25 PM MST, 35 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Mar 23, 2:25 PM MST, 35 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
325 PM MDT Tue Mar 23 2021
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 325 PM MDT Tue Mar 23 2021
...Heavy snow over the southern Sangres tonight and Wednesday...
Radar and satellite images this afternoon reveal a springtime
convective atmosphere in place across srn CO, with numerous rain and
snow showers developing as lapse rates steepen ahead of approaching
upper level low. Quick web cam tour of the area reveals some pockets
of fairly heavy snow already over the mountains, and La Veta CDOT
cam and KVTP ob show heavy snow with very poor visibility over the
pass during the past hour. For the remainder of the afternoon into
the evening, expect widespread showers to continue over the
mountains, occasionally spilling into most interior valleys and the
I25 corridor as upward motion increases across the region. Current
set of winter highlights looks reasonable, though did add Huerfano
County to the advisory as area along Highway 160 west of Walsenburg
was already seeing pockets of heavy convective snow this afternoon.
Overnight, snow continues over the mountains, while model QPF
suggests a rather sharp cut-off on the eastward extent of precip
somewhere near I-25. By early morning, snowfall spreads eastward
along the NM border, and as a result, issued a winter wx advisory
for ern Las Animas County beginning around midnight. For Colorado
Springs and Pueblo, expect both locations will see occasional
rain/snow showers through the night, though accumulations will be
limited to an inch or two, and roads should stay mainly wet.
On Wednesday, upper low slides eastward through NM into the srn
plains, keeping snow going over the srn half of the area through the
day. Models hint at some instability showers over much of the I-25
corridor and eastern plains by afternoon as pocket of colder air
aloft steepens lapse rates, though steadier/heavier snowfall will be
confined to areas along the NM border and across the higher terrain.
Higher peaks of the southern Sangres could end up seeing storm
totals of nearly 2 feet by Wed evening, with 6-12 inches possible
lower eastern slopes. Temps Wed to stay on the cold side with clouds
and precip, though most locations below 6500 feet will warm several
degf above freezing in the afternoon.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 325 PM MDT Tue Mar 23 2021
Thursday...Beginning the long term forecast period, models appear to
be in relative agreement with what is expected to occur; a trough
should beginning exiting the region Wednesday night with a small
ridge becoming the main influencer over the area Thursday throughout
the day. High temps. for the day will vary based on location, with
highs in the 50s over the eastern plains, 40s for the San Luis
Valley, and no higher than 30s for the higher elevations. Skies
should be relatively clear over the Pueblo CWA, except for the far
western portions, where cloud cover and precipitation chances will
begin increasing in response to the next approaching system as upper
level westerly winds increase.
Friday... Starting over night Friday, our next system begins
influencing the area. A trough will begin to dig south over the area
overnight Friday and become positively orientated over the area
throughout Friday. This should allow for two things to occur over
the CWA. One, deep and persistent westerly winds should induce
orographic lift over the western portions of the CWA and should
allow for increased precipitation chances. Two, given the
orientation over the upper level trough, lee cyclone genesis seems
likely over the Eastern Plains of Colorado. This may help to
increase precipitation chances over the eastern plains, but this
will depend highly on exactly where the surface cyclone develops and
where the greatest orographic lift sets up. High temps. Friday may
be similar to those of Thursday, with highs in the 50s over the
eastern plains, 40s in the San Luis Valley, and no higher than 30s
for higher elevations.
Saturday - Tuesday... Solutions begin to differ rather substantially
between the GFS and the ECMWF beginning Saturday, but given
ensembles and trends within the ensembles, will lean more towards
the ECMWF solutions. Currently, trends have the trough beginning to
lift to the NE out of the area. This should set the area up to be in
an overall ridging pattern, with a caveat discussed in Sundays
section. Moving into Sunday, a cut-off low develops off of the
southern tip of the exiting trough from Saturday. This cut-off low
development is supported in both the EPS and GEFS ensemble models,
with the GEFS trending more towards the EPS solution. The ECMWF
develops this cut-off low Saturday evening, but the EPS and GEFS
both gravitate towards later development, favoring the Sunday
timeframe. For now, will favor the ensemble solutions given how far
out Sunday is. With this, development of the cut-off low looks to be
over Arizona. Given this location, SW winds will be possible over
the western portions of the CWA, which may increase precipitation
chances over the western mountains. Elsewhere within the CWA,
precipitation chances should be low. Heading into Monday even more
differences arise between the deterministic models. The GFS digs a
trough into the area, with a strong cold front, while the ECMWF
takes the cut-off low to the NE and then brings a trough Tuesday
with a cold front. Will lean towards ensembles more for this period.
Ensembles have a ridge that develops over the area Monday. This
should again bring warm weather to the CWA. Finally to finish off
the long term forecast, Tuesday has the possibility to be an active
weather day. Ensembles, both the EPS and GEFS, begin digging a
trough into the area early Tuesday. This will likely bring increased
chances of precipitation as westerly winds should help induce
orographic lift over the higher elevations.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 325 PM MDT Tue Mar 23 2021
At KCOS, VFR with vcsh into early evening, then a long period of
occasional snow showers overnight and through the day Wed.
Prevailing conditions will become MVFR this evening and continue
into Wed, with brief IFR conditions under heavier showers. Snow
accumulation at the terminal will be fairly light, around an inch,
while heavier amounts are possible over the higher terrain north and
west of the airport.
At KPUB, VFR with vcsh into this evening. Occasional snow showers
then expected overnight and through the day Wed, with periods of
MVFR cigs/vis under heavier showers.
At KALS, VFR into early evening, then periods of snow showers likely
overnight into Wed morning, with MVFR/occasional IFR cigs/vis
expected. Snow accumulations will be fairly light, from 1-2 inches.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM MDT
Wednesday for COZ094.
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM MDT Wednesday for COZ087-088.
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM MDT Wednesday for COZ058-060-
061-066>068-072-073-079-080.
Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM MDT Wednesday for COZ074-075.
&&
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...PETERSEN