A lightning strike ignited a wildfire 23 miles southeast of Rangely.
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The episode as NWS GJT wrote it up.
A lightning strike ignited a wildfire 23 miles southeast of Rangely.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Grand Junction, CO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 28, 1:08 PM MST, 35 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 208 PM MDT Sat Aug 28 2021 ...CORRECTED WORDING IN SHORT TERM... .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 202 PM MDT Sat Aug 28 2021 Apart from the anticipated isolated storms over the far southwest San Juan Mountains this afternoon, conditions have remained dry and warm across the Western Slope. Near zonal flow aloft has started the transport of smoke from the ongoing western wildfires over the northern tier of the forecast area, as evident by the latest GOES satellite imagery. While not overly thick thus far, it has already moderated temperatures slightly across the north with the Craig Airport trending 3 degrees cooler than this time Friday (though this is also enhanced by yesterday's trough passage). The HRRR Smoke remains consistent in the continued advection of this smoke through the short term period with the highest concentration centered along and north of I-70. As a result, temperatures will likely continue to trend slightly cooler than guidance. The aforementioned convection over the southern mountains will diminish after sunset, resulting in a quiet night. Westerly flow aloft will persist across the north on Sunday while a ridge of high pressure builds to the south. Residual moisture will once again fuel isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms over the San Juans and potentially the West Elk Range. Otherwise, the status quo will prevail with smoky skies and dry conditions. Meanwhile, Hurricane Nora will continue to trek north through the Gulf of California Sunday night before its progress begins to slow down as we head into the long term period. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 202 PM MDT Sat Aug 28 2021 The long term period will start off relatively quiet, with temperatures running around 5 degrees above average and relatively light winds. This all starts to change Tuesday night as the ridge that builds in over eastern Utah and western Colorado during the day begins to shift east and an upper level trough digs along the Pacifc Coast, creating a classic monsoonal pattern. This won't be just a classic monsoonal push though, as moisture from Hurricane Nora will enhance the subtropical moisture tap. With this extra boost of moisture, PWATs are expected to increase quickly, with forecast values climbing almost half an inch over the course of 24 hours. PWATs are expected to peak Wednesday night into Thursday morning, with Thursday looking like the day for widespread precipitation as embedded shortwaves rotating around the trough combine with any lingering forcing from Nora. The concern here, with the expected widespread shower and thunderstorm activity, is heavy rain and localized flash flooding, with burn scars areas of high concern. Models are in good agreement through Thursday, that eastern Utah and western Colorado will tap into deep subtropical moisture and that Thursday will likely see the most widespread precipitation. With the expected cloud cover and precipitation from mid-week onward, temperatures will be at or below normal, with Thursday running around 10 degrees below normal. Confidence decreases from Friday into the weekend as discrepancies between models begin to crop up. However, generally speaking the weekend will continue to be unsettled with temperatures at or below average. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) Issued at 1123 AM MDT Sat Aug 28 2021 VFR conditions are expected to prevail for the next 24 hours. Smoke will spread from northeast to southwest through the afternoon and evening hours with northern TAF sites most impacted. Winds this afternoon will be gusty, but will become light and terrain driven after sunset. A few showers and storms will be possible in the San Juans. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 202 PM MDT Sat Aug 28 2021 We are continuing to monitor the potential for heavy, widespread precipitation from midweek onwards. Most of this will rely on the track and strength of Nora. Regardless, subtropical moisture will once again stream into the region as southerly flow sets up on Wednesday in response to the high's transition east. Passing embedded disturbances will provide enhanced lift, most notably on Thursday. Plenty of details need to be ironed out going forward, as any slight deviations could greatly impact the overall coverage and intensity of precipitation during this timeframe. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && SHORT TERM...MMS LONG TERM...BGB AVIATION...TGJT HYDROLOGY...MMS
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 124 PM MDT Sat Aug 28 2021 COZ001>014-017>023-UTZ022>025-027>029-291300- Lower Yampa River Basin-Central Yampa River Basin- Roan and Tavaputs Plateaus-Elkhead and Park Mountains- Upper Yampa River Basin-Grand Valley-Debeque to Silt Corridor- Central Colorado River Basin-Grand and Battlement Mesas- Gore and Elk Mountains/Central Mountain Valleys- Central Gunnison and Uncompahgre River Basin- West Elk and Sawatch Mountains-Flat Tops- Upper Gunnison River Valley-Uncompahgre Plateau and Dallas Divide- Northwest San Juan Mountains-Southwest San Juan Mountains- Paradox Valley/Lower Dolores River- Four Corners/Upper Dolores River-Animas River Basin- San Juan River Basin-Southeast Utah-Eastern Uinta Mountains- Eastern Uinta Basin-Tavaputs Plateau-Arches/Grand Flat- La Sal and Abajo Mountains-Canyonlands/Natural Bridges- 124 PM MDT Sat Aug 28 2021 This hazardous weather outlook is for eastern Utah and western Colorado. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight Isolated storms over the San Juans this afternoon will diminish this evening. Smoke from ongoing western wildfires will be transported into the region under westerly flow aloft. The thickest smoke will be settled along and north of I-70. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday Moisture and widespread precipitation may return by mid to late next week as a disturbance and moisture from the remnants of Nora move into the region. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 wildfire. Local standard time, as filed.
The Douglas Fire was started by lightning 23 miles southeast of Rangely in late August. It grew to 130 acres before being contained a few days later.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Colorado in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Colorado, August 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 974358.