With the help of a weak wave overhead, severe storms initiated over northern Michigan during the afternoon amidst a very moist low-level atmosphere. A few clusters of storms eventually merged into a line, producing damaging wind gusts across various portions of the forecast area from Kalkaska county to Iosco county.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS APX wrote it up.
With the help of a weak wave overhead, severe storms initiated over northern Michigan during the afternoon amidst a very moist low-level atmosphere. A few clusters of storms eventually merged into a line, producing damaging wind gusts across various portions of the forecast area from Kalkaska county to Iosco county.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Gaylord, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 28, 12:49 PM EST, 6 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 149 PM EDT Sat Aug 28 2021 .NEAR TERM...(Through Tonight) Issued at 143 PM EDT Sat Aug 28 2021 ...Shower and Thunderstorm Threat Continues... High impact weather potential: Isolated severe storms possible, with gusty winds and hail the primary severe weather concern. Pattern synopsis and forecast: Moisture rich southwest flow directed right across the western Great Lakes early this afternoon. Area now well under the warm sector behind departing warm front, as evident by temperatures soaring into the 80s and surface dewpoints well into the 60s and 70s. Despite lack of deeper forcing, still getting a few showers and thunderstorms percolating within this moist airmass...helped in part by remnant MCV from earlier upstream convection. Main activity remains centered well to our west across the upper Mississippi Valley along and ahead of eastward moving shortwave trough and attendant maturing cold front. Upstream wave and cold front will continue to steadily march east tonight, with the cold front reaching vicinity western upper Michigan into central Wisconsin by sunrise Sunday. While deepest forcing for ascent and most organized convective activity will stay attached to this front, overhead moisture rich atmosphere and passing more subtle convectively agitated waves supports additional shower and thunderstorm chances through tonight. Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Shower and thunderstorm evolution and addressing severe weather concerns. Details: Passing MCV expected to kick off additional showers and thunderstorms this afternoon as it works on an increasingly unstable airmass. Expect a break in the action this evening in post- wave subsidence regime. Much uncertainty with what happens overnight as primary forcing remains well to our west. However, additional weak energy noted across northern Iowa where convection has been rather persistent this morning. Given flow trajectories, gotta believe this energy will advance northeast into our area later tonight. Given moisture rich atmosphere and plume of well over 1K Joules/kg of most unstable cape, at least theoretically this wave should help ignite additions showers/storms as it crosses. Unfavorable timing (cape becomes nearly all elevated) should again preclude much of a severe concern. However, cannot completely rule out isolated severe cells capable of producing damaging winds and hail. Definitely a mild night, with overnight lows only dropping into the upper 60s and lower 70s. && .SHORT TERM...(Sunday through Monday) Issued at 416 AM EDT Sat Aug 28 2021 ...Showers and storms again... High impact weather potential: Showers and storms again on Sunday, with the potential for strong to severe storms Synopsis/Forecast: A shortwave becomes negatively tilted as it crosses the northern Plains, and by Sunday morning will be lifting through Minnesota...supporting a deepening surface low through southwestern Ontario. Ridging centered on the mid-Atlantic extends up into the Lower Great Lakes. At the surface the stationary front from the past couple days will have finally lifted well to our north as a warm front...putting us squarely in the warm sector with great moisture (PWAT's around 1.5") and instability (MLCAPE around 1500 Joules). Increased winds around the base of the shortwave will bring our effect shear values up to around 30 kts. SPC continues to have us in a marginal risk for severe storms. The front passes through our region Sunday evening, with showers and storms quickly ending along with it. Behind this we can expect a more seasonable and dry Monday. Otherwise highs will remain warm on Sunday with temperatures still running about 10 degrees above normal. Monday will bring a cooldown behind the cold front, with highs mainly in the mid to upper 70's. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday) Issued at 416 AM EDT Sat Aug 28 2021 High impact weather potential: Minimal Broadscale troughing exists across much Ontario and Quebec through the first part of the work week. Cool northwest flow and fairly dry conditions through Wednesday with high pressure dominating just to our north. A wave slipping by to our northeast may result in some shower chances Thursday, but confidence in this is low this far out. Otherwise temperatures will be much more seasonable with highs mainly in the mid 70s. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) Issued at 143 PM EDT Sat Aug 28 2021 Main focus is convective trends. Will be watch showers and storms as they spread east this afternoon...likely affecting KAPN by later today. Additional showers and storms possible tonight and Sunday at all taf locations. However, uncertainty remains high with regards to overall coverage and timing. Otherwise, expecting mostly VFR conditions to prevail. && .MARINE... Issued at 143 PM EDT Sat Aug 28 2021 Winds will become increasingly gusty out of the southwest tonight into Sunday out ahead of an approaching cold front. Expect winds and waves to likely exceed small craft conditions by late tonight and Sunday, especially across northern Lake Michigan. This front will be accompanied by showers and thunderstorms...any of which will be capable of producing gusty erratic winds. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LH...NONE. LM...NONE. LS...NONE. && UPDATE...MB NEAR TERM...MB SHORT TERM...STJ LONG TERM...STJ AVIATION...MB MARINE...MB
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1031 AM EDT Sat Aug 28 2021 MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-086>088-095>099-291200- Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Leelanau-Antrim-Otsego-Montmorency- Alpena-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-Oscoda-Alcona- Manistee-Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-Gladwin-Arenac- Western Chippewa-Central Chippewa-Southeast Chippewa- Western Mackinac-Eastern Mackinac- Mackinac Island/Bois Blanc Island- Beaver Island and surrounding islands-Charlevoix- 1031 AM EDT Sat Aug 28 2021 This hazardous weather outlook is for Eastern Upper Michigan and Northern Lower Michigan. .DAY ONE...Through tonight. Thunderstorms are again possible this afternoon and tonight across northern Michigan. While widespread severe weather is not expected, isolated severe storms remain possible. Wind gusts to 58 mph and hail to one inch in diameter are the primary severe weather concerns. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Thunderstorms are again possible Sunday. A few of these storms may become severe. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather and rainfall amounts to the National Weather Service. Reports may be made one of three ways: Online: weather.gov/gaylord Facebook: facebook.com/nwsgaylord Twitter: twitter.com/nwsgaylord LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-291200- Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel- 5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including Bois Blanc Island- Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI- Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge- Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI- Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI- Manistee to Point Betsie MI- Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI- St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay- 1031 AM EDT Sat Aug 28 2021 This hazardous weather outlook is for the northern Michigan nearshore waters of Lake Huron, Lake Michigan and Lake Superior. .DAY ONE...Through tonight. Thunderstorms are again possible this afternoon and tonight across the nearshore waters surrounding northern Michigan. While widespread severe weather is not expected, isolated severe storms remain possible. Wind gusts to 58 mph and hail to one inch in diameter are the primary severe weather concerns. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Thunderstorms are again possible Sunday. A few of these storms may become severe. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated. For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord.
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
759 AM EDT SAT AUG 28 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0758 AM HEAVY RAIN 9 SSW GAYLORD 44.90N 84.72W
08/28/2021 M1.07 INCH OTSEGO MI OFFICIAL NWS OBS
24 HOUR REPORT.
&&PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
114 PM EDT SAT AUG 28 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0112 PM HEAVY RAIN BRETHREN 44.30N 86.02W
08/28/2021 M2.91 INCH MANISTEE MI SPOTTER
24 HOUR TOTAL. MOST OF THE RAIN FELL OVERNIGHT.
&&
ANDREW.SULLIVANThe NCL Michigan radar (KAPX), 54 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 17:54 UTC.
7 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Multiple trees down near Albright swamp. Social media pictures show one tree down on top of a house.
Multipe trees down in south Bordman. Pictures sent via social media.
County dispatch reports multiple trees down across Roscommon county.
Ogemaw county dispatch reports numerous areas with trees downed and power outages, including Peach Lake and W Finerty Rd.
Iosco county dispatch reports trees down near Sand Lake.
Iosco county dispatch reports trees down near Whittemore.
County dispatch reports trees down in Tawas.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Michigan in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Michigan, August 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 983614, 983615, 983616, 983617, 983618, 983619, 983620.