Extremely dry and windy conditions, combined with critically dry vegetation, led to an uncontrolled agricultural burn that became a wildfire approximately 10 miles southeast of Meeker.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GJT wrote it up.
Extremely dry and windy conditions, combined with critically dry vegetation, led to an uncontrolled agricultural burn that became a wildfire approximately 10 miles southeast of Meeker.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Grand Junction, CO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Apr 11, 1:35 PM MST, 5 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 235 PM MDT Sun Apr 11 2021 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 235 PM MDT Sun Apr 11 2021 We have another mostly sunny day across the Western Slope with just a few patches of diurnally driven cumulus clouds drifting over the higher ridgetops near the Continental Divide. The cold front that was located just to the north of the forecast area overnight has now pushed through the entire region as analyzed by the 18Z WPC surface analysis. With no moisture to work with, the front passed through with little fanfare and really nothing more than a wind shift. While temperatures are a touch cooler today across northeast Utah and northwest Colorado in response, elsewhere conditions are largely unchanged compared to yesterday. That means above seasonal temperatures and more spectacular springtime weather. With that being said, post-frontal winds have already started increasing and that trend will continue through the afternoon. Wind gusts of 30 to as high as 40 mph will be common, particularly in the higher elevations. Short term forecast soundings continue to show a lot of what we already know: the atmosphere is really dry. Combined with deep mixing and gusty winds, critical fire weather is once again a concern. Made no changes to the ongoing Red Flag Warning for fire weather zones 207 and 295 (below 8000 feet) which runs until 0800 PM MDT. To give an idea of how extreme some of the conditions are in the low elevations of southwest Colorado, the latest observation from Durango Airport (KDRO) shows a temperature of 68F, a dew point of -1F and a relative humidity of just 6%. To make matters worse, winds are currently gusting to 35 mph. That's about as critical as it gets for fire weather. Winds will diminish within an hour or so after sunset and quiet, mainly clear, seasonably cool weather follows overnight. Heading into the new work week on Monday, mid-level flow over the forecast area becomes zonal so not really expecting any big changes compared to today. Temperatures may be a few degrees cooler and clouds may increase some during the day, but overall another pleasant day in store. The good news is that the threat of fire weather should be much more localized as winds won't be as strong. By Monday night, clouds increase in earnest as a deep mid-level trough digs into the Great Basin. More on that in the long term discussion below. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 235 PM MDT Sun Apr 11 2021 Scattered snow showers are expected to break out in the higher terrain of western Colorado and eastern Utah very early on Tuesday morning as our next storm system approaches from the west. Forecast guidance remains in good agreement regarding the arrival of the first surge of moisture expected to work through the Four Corners around the base of the trough around or shortly before 12z Tuesday. Total precipitation in the mountains has increased slightly in this forecast cycle, with around 0.2 to 0.5" of liquid expected through Tuesday and into Wednesday morning before a dry slot moves northward into eastern Utah and western Colorado. Fast southwesterly flow aloft will likely result in typical orographic precipitation trends, with most of the lower valleys seeing very limited action with this first wave. That being said, forecast guidance (especially the NAM) has introduced some light shower activity into the valleys, with places like Grand Junction, Montrose, and even Durango possibly seeing a few hundredths of an inch. The best timeframe for seeing some liquid in the valleys will come on Tuesday late afternoon and early evening when the most favorable combination of lift and saturation through the column passes through. Forecast confidence diminishes rapidly from Wednesday through the end of the long-term forecast period. This is due to several differences in model guidance with regard to exactly how long low pressure will linger in the Great Basin/Rocky Mountain region. Both the GFS and ECMWF support the idea of the Tuesday-Wednesday trough cutting off over the interior Rockies region. However, neither model has shown much consistency at all with regard to where the center of this low will weigh anchor through mid/late week, and how it will eventually dissipate and/or eject eastward into the central plains. The best consensus forecast for now will be for a continuation of shower activity in the northern portions of both Utah and Colorado on Wednesday through Thursday, with very limited precipitation in central/southern Utah and Colorado. Fast mid and upper-level flow is likely to persist around the base of this trough, with fire weather concerns a possibility on Wednesday and Thursday for the southern fringes of Utah and Colorado near the Four Corners. The GFS appears to be a bit more progressive in nature sliding the lingering upper- level low pressure system eastward by Thursday evening into Friday. This may result in another more defined round of precipitation for all mountain ranges and possibly the central and southern valleys, however this forecast is far from a lock as the ECMWF keeps the center of the low over 200 miles farther northwest. It does appear as though by Saturday, both major global models develop some more staunch ridging over the western coast of the USA, which will help to shunt this large, lingering storm system farther east. Despite such a complex forecast through the middle and end of the week, there are some details that are more certain for now. Precipitation is likely on Tuesday into Wednesday, with some springtime snow likely in the higher terrain. Temperatures are likely to drop back to near average or even slightly below average from Wednesday through Saturday as a large trough develops over the western CONUS. Finally, showery weather is likely in the higher terrain each day through the end of the week, even if total precipitation amounts remain relatively light. Persons travelling or recreating in the mountains are likely to see a chance for brief bursts of rain or snow, and possibly some thunder each day during the afternoon peak heating hours. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) Issued at 1141 AM MDT Sun Apr 11 2021 VFR will continue at all terminals today and tomorrow. Expect gusty afternoon winds out of the west with the strongest winds likely at DRO and GUC. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 235 PM MDT Sun Apr 11 2021 The ongoing Red Flag Warning in effect for fire weather zones 207 and 295 (below 8000 feet) remains on track and made no changes with this afternoon's package. Latest observations continue to show a very dry air mass in place with relative humidities running in the 6-10% range. Combined with winds gusting to 25-35 mph, conditions are critical and will remain so through sunset. Beyond that, humidity will recover and winds will diminish which will end the threat of fire weather overnight. Dry conditions will remain in place on Monday, but winds are not likely to be as strong. Still can't rule out a few spots in southwest Colorado reaching criteria again, but confidence both spatially and temporally is not high enough to consider additional highlights at this time. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ207-295. UT...None. && SHORT TERM...MDM LONG TERM...MAC AVIATION...MAC FIRE WEATHER...MDM
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 420 AM MDT Sun Apr 11 2021 COZ001>014-017>023-UTZ022>025-027>029-121030- Lower Yampa River Basin-Central Yampa River Basin- Roan and Tavaputs Plateaus-Elkhead and Park Mountains- Upper Yampa River Basin-Grand Valley-Debeque to Silt Corridor- Central Colorado River Basin-Grand and Battlement Mesas- Gore and Elk Mountains/Central Mountain Valleys- Central Gunnison and Uncompahgre River Basin- West Elk and Sawatch Mountains-Flat Tops- Upper Gunnison River Valley-Uncompahgre Plateau and Dallas Divide- Northwest San Juan Mountains-Southwest San Juan Mountains- Paradox Valley/Lower Dolores River- Four Corners/Upper Dolores River-Animas River Basin- San Juan River Basin-Southeast Utah-Eastern Uinta Mountains- Eastern Uinta Basin-Tavaputs Plateau-Arches/Grand Flat- La Sal and Abajo Mountains-Canyonlands/Natural Bridges- 420 AM MDT Sun Apr 11 2021 This hazardous weather outlook is for eastern Utah and western Colorado. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Critical fire weather conditions are expected to develop across the Four Corners region this afternoon/evening as breezy west winds develop. Low relative humidity combined with gusty winds and dry fine fuels poses a heightened fire danger. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday Unsettled conditions are expected during the coming week as a quasi-stationary low pressure system forms to the northwest. Periodic mountain snow is expected Tuesday through Saturday, mainly above 9,000 feet. At this time, snowfall rates are projected to be low and as a result, minor impacts are expected. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 wildfire. Local standard time, as filed.
The 8 Road Fire began from human-causes on April 11th 10 miles southeast of Meeker and grew to 890 acres before being contained several days later.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Colorado in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Colorado, April 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 942231.