NWS Las Vegas, NV wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 26, 9:39 AM PST, 1 hour 21 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 26, 9:39 AM PST, 1 hour 21 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1039 AM PDT Mon Jul 26 2021
.SYNOPSIS...Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected
again today before drier conditions return Tuesday and Wednesday.
Thereafter, another uptick in monsoonal moisture is expected, with
increasing thunderstorm chances through the weekend. Temperatures
through the week will be near to slightly below normal.
&&
.UPDATE...The KESX radar remains down this morning. Due to lightning
proximity as seen via satellite, our best guess is that it was
struck by lightning. Our electrical technicians are on their way to
the radar now, and hopefully can get it up and running. Thankfully,
it appears that for the short term, shower activity is focused
within the range of KEYX at Edwards Air Force Base.
Light rain showers can be seen across the forecast area this
morning. The MCS from last night likely did a good job at eating up
the majority of the instability in the region, but there remains a
substantial amount of moisture in the atmosphere today. Coupled with
the dynamics of the shortwave trough, moderate to locally heavy
rainfall can certainly not be ruled out this morning.
Though isolated thunderstorms are possible area-wide today, our
primary concerns lie across San Bernardino County this morning as
the low moves across our area, and Inyo County later this afternoon.
Rain chances will push north-northwestward, potentially impacting
western Clark County as well. Pahrump in particular has quite a bit
of storm-related damage from last night's storms, and has the
potential to experience another round of storms today. Locally heavy
rainfall, isolated flash flooding, frequent lightning and gusty
winds would all be possible with storm formation in the area. What
currently has our eye is a complex moving northwestward along the
state line from Primm that could clip Pahrump in the next couple of
hours.
A number of flash flood-related products have already been issued
this morning for portions of San Bernardino County as we watch this
complex push through the region. Our concern turns to Death Valley
National Park this afternoon, as the area is incredibly prone to
flash flooding, and PWAT values across Death Valley are in excess of
2 inches... that's higher than anywhere else in our forecast area.
Storms from last night have reportedly had no impact to the park, so
we have reason to believe that any moisture the soil was going to
take up... has already been taken up. Will keep a close eye on
storms as they move across eastern Inyo County as a result.
Additionally, there are a couple of wildfire burn scars including
the Taboose and Inyo Creek in the Sierra Nevada mountains that could
produce debris flows when in contact with heavy rain rates. Flash
flooding will be the primary concern in southeastern California
today. As such, the Flash Flood Watch remains in effect through 11pm
PDT tonight, and looks to be in good shape, so no edits necessary
this morning.
Made some changes to the PoP grids to accommodate local models, but
otherwise, made no changes to this morning's forecast. Will keep
you posted on the status of the radar as we learn more information.
1038: Technicians are unable to get into the radar at this time, as
current rainfall in the area has made it hazardous to do so. At
first glance, they say that there is no cosmetic damage, but will be
able to learn more and assess the full extent of the issues once the
rain ceases.
- VARIAN
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...243 AM PDT Mon Jul 26 2021/
.DISCUSSION...through next weekend. Very active weather to start the
shift, so running behind this morning. MCS which blasted through
Clark County was petering out as it crossed into SGX's part of San
Bernardino County at 130 AM. Light rain was still tracking westward
over western San Bernardino and southern Inyo counties, and new
showers were popping up over the Morongo Basin, possibly helped
along by outflow from the decaying MCS. Debris clouds covered the
rest of our CWA. Surface wind field had been completely disrupted
along and near the track of the MCS, but as it has weakened since
midnight, the peak gusts have been decreasing. Surface temperatures
were also a mess, with several stations already at or below the
forecast morning lows thanks to heavy rain and/or rain-cooled
outflow winds. Made substantial manual adjustments to min temp grids
and lesser adjustments to PoP grids to account for current trends.
The main concerns for one more day remain thunderstorms and flash
flooding. Shortwave trough seen on mid level water vapor imagery
over the Gulf of California will move north across southern
California today, helping to lift the soggy airmass in place across
our area. Main concern is whether or not the atmosphere can recover
from the effects of the MCS and recharge in time to respond to the
forcing of the shortwave trough. In recent days, nocturnal debris
clouds have cleared out in the early mornings, allowing plenty of
afternoon heating and destabilization. Given these trends, plus the
very juicy airmass in place, will leave the Flash Flood Watch as is.
Also started the northern zone grouping at midnight instead of 5 AM
due to ongoing warnings and flooding in a couple of the zones. As
the wave lifts through our area during the day, more stable air will
start to move in behind it, shutting off precip chances along and
south of I-40 by afternoon and CWA-wide by sunrise Tuesday morning.
There will still be plenty of moisture available, and sunshine
Tuesday and Wednesday will be sufficient to pop scattered
thunderstorms over the higher terrain, but with less coverage and
intensity than in previous days. Temperatures will climb back to
near normal for late July thanks to the extra sun. Meanwhile, a low
pressure area which was over the Gulf of Mexico early this morning
will be drifting west around the big dome of high pressure covering
much of the US. This low is forecast to approach our area beginning
Thursday and stick around at least through Saturday, bringing
increased chances for showers and thunderstorms again.
&&
.AVIATION...For McCarran...The severe thunderstorm complex has now
cleared the Valley leaving mostly light and variable winds in its
wake. Low confidence in wind directions overnight but do not believe
they will be operationally significant. Also low confidence that
some light fog could develop overnight as moisture is high across
the valley from the intense rainfall. For tomorrow, another round of
afternoon TS development is expected, but with flow to the
northwest, any development that occurs on higher terrain should push
away from the valley. Thus, only included VCTS but did not include a
wind impact at this time.
For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona, and southeast
California...A decaying but strong complex of thunderstorms was
moving southwest along the I-15 corridor towards KDAG. Expecting
this to reach the terminal by 0630-07Z with gusty winds over 35kts
and possible BLDU. After passage, some lingering showers and
thunderstorms will be possible overnight but greater confidence is
in re-development near KDAG tomorrow morning. In addition to KDAG,
KBIH looks to see thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon which could
create outflow gusts from the southeast to 35 kts. For the LV and CO
River valley, storm development should be much more isolated and
confidence in direct impacts is low.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&
DISCUSSION...Morgan
AVIATION...Boucher
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