During the evening of July 10, 2021, an upper-level disturbance pushed into the area from the northwest. As a result, a line of thunderstorms developed and pushed across areas along and north of Interstate 40.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MEG wrote it up.
During the evening of July 10, 2021, an upper-level disturbance pushed into the area from the northwest. As a result, a line of thunderstorms developed and pushed across areas along and north of Interstate 40. Later that night the storms stalled across the Memphis metropolitan area causing some flash flooding.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Memphis, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 10, 9:55 PM CST, 15 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1055 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021 .DISCUSSION... Updated for aviation discussion && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 927 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021/ UPDATE... Convection continues to fire up this evening to the north and west of the Mid-South. The convection is developing along old outflow boundaries leftover from previous convection. Still not exactly sure how the convection will evolve during the overnight hours. The CAMs are consistent on trying to merge the convection over Southern Missouri with the convection over Western Arkansas creating a large line of storms. Right now, think it may end up being clusters of broken line segments moving into the area. Will have to just wait and see. Damaging winds and locally heavy rainfall will be the main threats from the storms. POPS look good. Although, will make some minor tweaks to temperatures. Update will be out shortly. KRM DISCUSSION... /issued 248 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021/ Diurnal thunderstorms are popping up across the area this afternoon. Farther north, ahead of a shortwave which is forecast to dive south into the mid-section of the country and close off on Sunday/Monday, more organized convection is expected to develop. This upper level feature is expected to push a line of thunderstorms into our area this evening spreading southward overnight. A slight risk of severe weather is forecast with these storms over about the north half of our forecast area with damaging winds the main threat. Another threat with these storms is heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding. A slight risk of excessive rainfall is evident for a good portion of the area overnight through Sunday. For now, holding off on a flash flood watch since the storms tonight are expected to move fairly progressively south. Additionally, on Sunday it remains difficult to pinpoint where the boundary will eventually end up resulting in a focus for potential heavy rainfall on Sunday. Nevertheless, there is a continued risk for localized flash flooding. The upper level low is the dominate feature in our weather into early next week. Temperatures will respond with below average readings through Tuesday before the low lifts out. In the wake of the upper low more normal temperature readings and a continued diurnal threat for storms. Later in the period another shortwave swings through in the westerly flow and pushes another front into the area. The overall pattern through the period does not favor prolonged above average temperatures in our forecast area. This is due to a strong upper high over the mountain west and a general trough over the middle of the country. Belles && .AVIATION... Convection organizing across southern MO and northern AR will push across the Mid-South overnight with a period of IFR vsbys/MVFR cigs and gusty winds. Expect a few hours of light SHRAs after the TSRAs roll through followed by a few hours of MVFR cigs Sunday morning. Some CAMS are showing some TSRA redevelopment in the morning hours but we should see some stabilization after tonight's activity. Decided to hold off any redevelopment until the afternoon hours. Afternoon convection should dissipate with loss of heating. Low clouds look likely Sunday night into Monday morning. Winds will generally be SSW around 10 kts with some higher gusts during the afternoon. SJM && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. &&
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Memphis TN 453 AM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021 ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017- 020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-111200- Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay- Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur- Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood- Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS- Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot- Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis- Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley- Yalobusha- 453 AM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas... the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight A Marginal to slight risk of severe weather exists for portions of the Mid South on today and through tonight. Clusters of storms will be possible with a few storms being strong or severe. Gusty winds and heavy rain will be the main threats. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday A Marginal risk of severe weather exists for portions of the Mid South on Sunday. Clusters of storms will be possible with a few storms being strong or severe. Gusty winds and heavy rain will be the main threats. A Marginal to Slight risk of excessive rainfall exists for portions of the Mid South on Sunday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
530 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021
MSZ004-005-009-102300-
Tippah MS-Alcorn MS-Prentiss MS-
530 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021
...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 600 PM CDT
FOR...
Southeastern Tippah County in northeastern Mississippi...
Alcorn County in northeastern Mississippi...
Prentiss County in northeastern Mississippi...
At 530 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing pea size hail or
larger and winds at least 40 mph was located over Jumpertown, or near
Booneville, moving east at 25 mph.
Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.
People in southeastern Tippah...Alcorn and Prentiss Counties should
monitor this storm closely.
LAT...LON 3453 8837 3455 8874 3460 8873 3460 8879
3487 8876 3498 8840 3486 8836 3476 8837
3474 8833
TIME...MOT...LOC 2230Z 259DEG 23KT 3468 8864
KRMPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
716 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0530 PM TSTM WND DMG BOONEVILLE 34.66N 88.57W
07/10/2021 PRENTISS MS EMERGENCY MNGR
NUMEROUS TREES DOWN AND ONE CARPORT DAMAGED FOR ABOUT A
5 MILE SWATH FROM NORTHEAST OF THE COMMUNITY OF
BLACKLAND TO NORTHEAST OF BOONEVILLE.
&&Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1015 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021
ARZ009-110345-
Clay AR-
1015 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021
...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 1045 PM CDT
FOR...
Clay County in eastern Arkansas...
At 1015 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing winds in excess of
40 mph was located over Success, or 9 miles west of Corning, moving
east at 30 mph.
Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.
People in Clay County should monitor this storm closely.
LAT...LON 3650 9016 3648 9016 3648 9014 3644 9013
3643 9015 3640 9010 3627 9011 3629 9080
3630 9075 3641 9075 3641 9077 3642 9076
3643 9078 3643 9077 3644 9078 3649 9077
3650 9078
TIME...MOT...LOC 0315Z 271DEG 24KT 3643 9076
KRMThe Memphis radar (KNQA), 111 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 04:11 UTC.
2 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Tree down close to the town of Rector.
Power lines were knocked down in a couple of spots in Jonesboro.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arkansas in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Arkansas, July 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 976420, 976671.