Heavy rain brought flooding to the Ouachita and Cache Rivers in late February.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LZK wrote it up.
Heavy rain brought flooding to the Ouachita and Cache Rivers in late February.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Little Rock, AR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 25, 2:44 AM CST, 46 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 244 AM CST Thu Feb 25 2021 .SHORT TERM...Today Through Friday Night Broad longwave troughing was noted across the CONUS per mesoanalysis this AM...A more robust pos. tilted shortwave trof was positioned over the Great Basin/Salt Lake region. Locally, a weak cold frnt was positioned just S/E of the state w/ a modest sfc pres grad and Nrly winds in place. Notably, temps have cooled around the region, however are more seasonable rather than Arctic. THURS...Settled condns and moderate temps near seasonable values...e.g. readings in the mid-50s at most locations...will be noted over the state today in the wake of Wed night's FROPA, w/ this bndry stalling out and eventually becoming a focus for enhanced PoP chances. Through the day, the aforementioned shortwave will deamplify and translate E/wrd, ejecting across the Srn Cntrl Plains late Thurs night. THURS NIGHT...The latest 00Z suite of guidance continues to hone in on a swath of enhanced QPF over the Srn half of the state late Thurs night. In addition to heavy rainfall, a conditional and MRGL risk for thunderstorms...some of which could briefly become strong to severe...will exist over this region as well. Strong mid-lvl WAA/frontogenesis will be noted over the AR/LA border vicinity late Thurs night, overtop a cooler and more stable sfc bndry layer. Based on some pt fcst soundings, sfc based storms seem unlkly, w/ any convective activity that does materialize lkly becoming rooted near the H850 layer, e.g. where most MUCAPE parcel traces may originate given the ambient environment. Despite a narrow band of ~ 500-800 J/kg of MUCAPE, a strengthening S/Wrly H850 35 kt LLJ in conjunction with more dynamic forcing mechanisms...e.g. an H500 80+ kt jet streak and the approaching upper shortwave...may help prolong and sustain updraft development, w/ large hail remaining the primary severe threat overnight Thurs. Regarding heavy rain, w/ the isolated severe storm threat remaining marginal, mid-lvl isentropic ascent will be quite prevalent over the Srn portion of the state w/ upper divergence becoming more enhanced invof the approaching shortwave trof. Given a large swath of > 95% H1000-H500 RH, 6hr QPF > 1" will be possible. Snow melt from the prior winter storms has contributed to some more substantial soil moisture/saturation...e.g. some locations exceeding the 75th percentile of saturation...particularly where the weekly snow fall totals were the greatest, however FFG remains relatively uncompromised and the potential for widespread flash flooding will not be as prevalent w/ this first system, rather it may prime the region to become more vulnerable to a flooding risk w/ future systems in the long term portion of the fcst. FRI THRU FRI NIGHT...The stalled bndry will remain in place over the AR/LA border and keep cooler temps in place again for the day, w/ most readings in the upper 40s to the lower 50s. This bndry will remain the focus for Chc PoPs over the Srn portion of the state thru the end of the PD. && .LONG TERM...Saturday Through Wednesday Through the extended periods, the primary longwave flow will be out of the southwest bringing a healthy dose of Pacific moisture. Also, there will be surface boundaries meandering around the region. You know how it goes this time of year...frontal boundary hits upper ridge and stalls out, lifts back to the north, surface low forms, drags a cold front across, front stalls out close to southern Arkansas, then it repeats. This will keep a healthy dose of rain chances throughout the long term periods as the surface system interacts with waves moving through in the mean flow and produces periods of showers, with isolated thunderstorms possible. Not surprisingly, with this pattern, we will see an increased likelihood of locally heavy rainfall, particularly over central and southern Arkansas. As tends to be the case with this pattern, storms will form and move over the same areas, and taking this into account along with soil moisture from borderline ludicrous amounts of snowfall this month, this will create and sustain flash flooding potential. Still don't have a great handle on expected rainfall amounts this far out, but it's something to keep an eye on. && .AVIATION...25/06Z TAF Discussion Leading edge of a cold frnt was noted over S/Ern AR Wed evening w/ SCT mid-lvl clouds moving across the state. VFR condns should prevail through the PD w/ Nrly winds through the overnight and winds veering to become N/Erly Thurs afternoon. Increasing cloud cover will build in from the W w/ -SHRA becoming prevalent over the Srn half of the state, lkly impacting Cntrl and Srn terminals Thurs evening near the end of the PD. /232/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 53 39 50 40 / 10 70 50 40 Camden AR 59 44 55 49 / 20 100 70 60 Harrison AR 50 35 49 38 / 0 50 20 10 Hot Springs AR 55 40 52 44 / 20 100 50 50 Little Rock AR 55 41 53 44 / 10 90 60 50 Monticello AR 58 45 56 51 / 0 100 80 60 Mount Ida AR 55 40 53 43 / 20 90 40 40 Mountain Home AR 53 36 49 38 / 0 50 30 10 Newport AR 53 40 50 42 / 10 70 50 50 Pine Bluff AR 55 42 54 48 / 10 100 70 60 Russellville AR 55 39 52 41 / 20 90 40 30 Searcy AR 53 39 51 41 / 10 90 50 50 Stuttgart AR 54 42 53 46 / 10 100 70 60 && .LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE. && Short Term...GREEN / Long Term...57 Aviation...GREEN
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Little Rock AR 252 AM CST Thu Feb 25 2021 ARZ003>008-012>017-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-260900- Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Randolph-Newton-Searcy-Stone- Izard-Independence-Lawrence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne- Jackson-Logan-Conway-Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry- Polk-Montgomery-Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike- Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland- Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-Bradley-Drew- 252 AM CST Thu Feb 25 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Thursday night, rain chances will become more widespread over southern Arkansas, with the potential for a few thunderstorms as well. Thunderstorms may briefly become strong to severe, with large hail being the primary hazard. Additionally, the southern portion of the state may pick up one to one and a half inches of rain overnight Thursday. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday Through Wednesday Rain chances will continue this weekend and into next week, as several systems bring periods of showers and a few thunderstorms to the state. At this time, the threat of strong storms is low during this period. However, there will be an increased threat for heavy precipitation, with several inches of rain possible. However, details regarding the placement and extent of this heavy rainfall threat remains uncertain this far out in time. Continue to monitor the latest forecasts and statements from your Arkansas NWS offices. .Spotter Information Statement... Spotter Activation May Be Needed && Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk. 232/57
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
3 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Heavy rain brought flooding to the Ouachita River at the Thatcher Lock and Dam from 2/25 through the end of the month.
Heavy rain brought flooding to the Cache River at Patterson from 2/27 through the end of the month.
Heavy rain brought flooding to the Ouachita River at Camden from 2/27 through the end of the month.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arkansas in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Arkansas, February 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 941637, 941639, 941638.