Arizona, 2021

Drought in Arizona, May 1 to 31, 2021

May 1 to 31, 2021 · NWS TWC · 14 events in 14 counties and zones

The exceptional (D4) and extreme (D3) drought categories continued across a large part of southeast Arizona during May, with the exception of western Pima County. 50 inch on May 20-21.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 14 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

  • Tornadoes
  • Tropical storms and surge
  • Floods
  • Wind
  • Hail
  • Winter weather
  • Heat and drought
  • Cold
  • Fire, smoke and dust
  • Marine and coastal
  • Other

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The toll

Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
None recorded
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
14

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS TWC wrote it up.

The exceptional (D4) and extreme (D3) drought categories continued across a large part of southeast Arizona during May, with the exception of western Pima County. Rain for the month totaled less than 0.10 inch in most areas with spotty amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch on May 20-21. Showers on May 14 only produced light rain, but gusty winds produced blowing dust from Willcox to San Simon. Soil moisture readings remained below the 5th percentile ranking, except around the 10th percentile ranking in Greenlee and southeast Graham counties. Levels at San Carlos Reservoir remained near zero percent of capacity. At least two dozen small wild land fires occurred during the month, one of which, the Zacattack fire, caused the evacuation of 30 homes in Old Bisbee's Brewery Gulch, but no damage. Three wildfires--Sycamore Canyon, Warren and Warsaw--grew to around or over 1000 acres.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Apr 30, 2:46 PM MST, 9 hours 14 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Apr 30, 2:46 PM MST, 9 hours 14 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
246 PM MST Fri Apr 30 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Hot and and breezy weather is expected this weekend as a
storm system passes by to the north. More seasonable temperatures are
expected early next weekend before another warmup develops the latter
half of the workweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A lot happening today and much of it related to the
wind and background dryness. Dust blowing off the Willcox Playa
invaded the Tucson area mid-day resulting in a haze over and south
of the area. At the same time two wildfires sprung up on the San
Carlos Reservation that were helped along by the wind. Then, two
other fires were detected on satellite imagery, the dump fire in
Tucson and a wildfire near Elgin. The three wildfires really show
how dry the region is as the moisture we did receive early in the
week has already been negated.

That sets us up for the Saturday through Monday period which will be
a breezy one, continuing the April trend into May. Sunday will be
the windiest day with 20-25 mph winds, gusts 35 to 45 mph expected
across much of southeast Arizona. The strongest winds should be south
and east of Tucson and over higher terrain. That wind in combination
with the very dry conditions will bring about critical fire weather
conditions and a Fire Weather Watch is in effect for that.

The system generating the wind will pass by late Sunday into Monday
and will be dry other than a few light showers over the White
Mountains. It will bring cooler, more seasonable temperatures to the
area Monday and Tuesday. Wednesday into Friday, a full latitude ridge
of high pressure will shift across the region resulting in a good
warmup. At this time I went with high temperatures in the upper 90s
Tucson westward Thursday and Friday which looks reasonable given
ensemble solutions and local thickness guidance. At this time, odds
of pinging 100 at the Tucson airport is around 25% for those two
days. We will see if that holds up till then.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 02/00Z.
SKC through Saturday morning then becoming SCT-BKN AOA 25k ft MSL.
Easterly SFC winds 12-20 kts with gusts near 30 kts easing to 10 kts
or less late this evening. Wind then becoming NW 10-20 kts gusts to
30 kts after 01/19Z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Very dry and fairly breezy through Monday with Sunday
being the windiest day where fairly widespread critical fire weather
conditions are a good bet. A fire weather watch has been issued for
late Sunday morning into Sunday evening as a result. Then other than
a slight chance of a few showers over the Whites late Monday, dry
weather remains in the forecast through next week. Winds will
lighten up Tuesday through Thursday then potentially increase again
Friday. Also, temperatures look to ramp up later next week to much
above normal levels.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
for AZZ150>154.

&&

Public...Cerniglia
Aviation...Michael
Fire Weather....Michael

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

14 drought. Local standard time, as filed.

Drought, Tohono O Odham Nation

When
May 1, 12:00 AM MST to May 31, 11:59 PM MST
Where
Tohono O Odham Nation forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
32.501, -111.567 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

The exceptional (D4) and extreme (D3) drought categories continued across a large part of southeast Arizona during May, with the exception of western Pima County. Rain for the month totaled less than 0.10 inch in most areas with spotty amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch on May 20-21. Showers on May 14 only produced light rain, but gusty winds produced blowing dust from Willcox to San Simon. Soil moisture readings remained below the 5th percentile ranking, except around the 10th percentile ranking in Greenlee and southeast Graham counties. Levels at San Carlos Reservoir remained near zero percent of capacity. At least two dozen small wild land fires occurred during the month, one of which, the Zacattack fire, caused the evacuation of 30 homes in Old Bisbee's Brewery Gulch, but no damage. Three wildfires--Sycamore Canyon, Warren and Warsaw--grew to around or over 1000 acres.

Drought, Upper Santa Cruz River and Altar Valleys

When
May 1, 12:00 AM MST to May 31, 11:59 PM MST
Where
Upper Santa Cruz River and Altar Valleys forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
31.812, -111.318 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

The exceptional (D4) and extreme (D3) drought categories continued across a large part of southeast Arizona during May, with the exception of western Pima County. Rain for the month totaled less than 0.10 inch in most areas with spotty amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch on May 20-21. Showers on May 14 only produced light rain, but gusty winds produced blowing dust from Willcox to San Simon. Soil moisture readings remained below the 5th percentile ranking, except around the 10th percentile ranking in Greenlee and southeast Graham counties. Levels at San Carlos Reservoir remained near zero percent of capacity. At least two dozen small wild land fires occurred during the month, one of which, the Zacattack fire, caused the evacuation of 30 homes in Old Bisbee's Brewery Gulch, but no damage. Three wildfires--Sycamore Canyon, Warren and Warsaw--grew to around or over 1000 acres.

Drought, Tucson Metro Area

When
May 1, 12:00 AM MST to May 31, 11:59 PM MST
Where
Tucson Metro Area forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
32.097, -111.790 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

The exceptional (D4) and extreme (D3) drought categories continued across a large part of southeast Arizona during May, with the exception of western Pima County. Rain for the month totaled less than 0.10 inch in most areas with spotty amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch on May 20-21. Showers on May 14 only produced light rain, but gusty winds produced blowing dust from Willcox to San Simon. Soil moisture readings remained below the 5th percentile ranking, except around the 10th percentile ranking in Greenlee and southeast Graham counties. Levels at San Carlos Reservoir remained near zero percent of capacity. At least two dozen small wild land fires occurred during the month, one of which, the Zacattack fire, caused the evacuation of 30 homes in Old Bisbee's Brewery Gulch, but no damage. Three wildfires--Sycamore Canyon, Warren and Warsaw--grew to around or over 1000 acres.

Drought, South Central Pinal County

When
May 1, 12:00 AM MST to May 31, 11:59 PM MST
Where
South Central Pinal County forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
32.904, -111.345 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

The exceptional (D4) and extreme (D3) drought categories continued across a large part of southeast Arizona during May, with the exception of western Pima County. Rain for the month totaled less than 0.10 inch in most areas with spotty amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch on May 20-21. Showers on May 14 only produced light rain, but gusty winds produced blowing dust from Willcox to San Simon. Soil moisture readings remained below the 5th percentile ranking, except around the 10th percentile ranking in Greenlee and southeast Graham counties. Levels at San Carlos Reservoir remained near zero percent of capacity. At least two dozen small wild land fires occurred during the month, one of which, the Zacattack fire, caused the evacuation of 30 homes in Old Bisbee's Brewery Gulch, but no damage. Three wildfires--Sycamore Canyon, Warren and Warsaw--grew to around or over 1000 acres.

Drought, Southeast Pinal County

When
May 1, 12:00 AM MST to May 31, 11:59 PM MST
Where
Southeast Pinal County forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
32.904, -111.345 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

The exceptional (D4) and extreme (D3) drought categories continued across a large part of southeast Arizona during May, with the exception of western Pima County. Rain for the month totaled less than 0.10 inch in most areas with spotty amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch on May 20-21. Showers on May 14 only produced light rain, but gusty winds produced blowing dust from Willcox to San Simon. Soil moisture readings remained below the 5th percentile ranking, except around the 10th percentile ranking in Greenlee and southeast Graham counties. Levels at San Carlos Reservoir remained near zero percent of capacity. At least two dozen small wild land fires occurred during the month, one of which, the Zacattack fire, caused the evacuation of 30 homes in Old Bisbee's Brewery Gulch, but no damage. Three wildfires--Sycamore Canyon, Warren and Warsaw--grew to around or over 1000 acres.

Drought, Upper San Pedro River Valley

When
May 1, 12:00 AM MST to May 31, 11:59 PM MST
Where
Upper San Pedro River Valley forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
32.109, -110.569 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

The exceptional (D4) and extreme (D3) drought categories continued across a large part of southeast Arizona during May, with the exception of western Pima County. Rain for the month totaled less than 0.10 inch in most areas with spotty amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch on May 20-21. Showers on May 14 only produced light rain, but gusty winds produced blowing dust from Willcox to San Simon. Soil moisture readings remained below the 5th percentile ranking, except around the 10th percentile ranking in Greenlee and southeast Graham counties. Levels at San Carlos Reservoir remained near zero percent of capacity. At least two dozen small wild land fires occurred during the month, one of which, the Zacattack fire, caused the evacuation of 30 homes in Old Bisbee's Brewery Gulch, but no damage. Three wildfires--Sycamore Canyon, Warren and Warsaw--grew to around or over 1000 acres.

Drought, Eastern Cochise County Below 5000 Feet

When
May 1, 12:00 AM MST to May 31, 11:59 PM MST
Where
Eastern Cochise County Below 5000 Feet forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
31.880, -109.751 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

The exceptional (D4) and extreme (D3) drought categories continued across a large part of southeast Arizona during May, with the exception of western Pima County. Rain for the month totaled less than 0.10 inch in most areas with spotty amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch on May 20-21. Showers on May 14 only produced light rain, but gusty winds produced blowing dust from Willcox to San Simon. Soil moisture readings remained below the 5th percentile ranking, except around the 10th percentile ranking in Greenlee and southeast Graham counties. Levels at San Carlos Reservoir remained near zero percent of capacity. At least two dozen small wild land fires occurred during the month, one of which, the Zacattack fire, caused the evacuation of 30 homes in Old Bisbee's Brewery Gulch, but no damage. Three wildfires--Sycamore Canyon, Warren and Warsaw--grew to around or over 1000 acres.

Drought, Upper Gila River and Aravaipa Valleys

When
May 1, 12:00 AM MST to May 31, 11:59 PM MST
Where
Upper Gila River and Aravaipa Valleys forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
33.074, -109.563 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

The exceptional (D4) and extreme (D3) drought categories continued across a large part of southeast Arizona during May, with the exception of western Pima County. Rain for the month totaled less than 0.10 inch in most areas with spotty amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch on May 20-21. Showers on May 14 only produced light rain, but gusty winds produced blowing dust from Willcox to San Simon. Soil moisture readings remained below the 5th percentile ranking, except around the 10th percentile ranking in Greenlee and southeast Graham counties. Levels at San Carlos Reservoir remained near zero percent of capacity. At least two dozen small wild land fires occurred during the month, one of which, the Zacattack fire, caused the evacuation of 30 homes in Old Bisbee's Brewery Gulch, but no damage. Three wildfires--Sycamore Canyon, Warren and Warsaw--grew to around or over 1000 acres.

Drought, White Mountains of Graham and Greenlee Counties

When
May 1, 12:00 AM MST to May 31, 11:59 PM MST
Where
White Mountains of Graham and Greenlee Counties forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
33.074, -109.563 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

The exceptional (D4) and extreme (D3) drought categories continued across a large part of southeast Arizona during May, with the exception of western Pima County. Rain for the month totaled less than 0.10 inch in most areas with spotty amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch on May 20-21. Showers on May 14 only produced light rain, but gusty winds produced blowing dust from Willcox to San Simon. Soil moisture readings remained below the 5th percentile ranking, except around the 10th percentile ranking in Greenlee and southeast Graham counties. Levels at San Carlos Reservoir remained near zero percent of capacity. At least two dozen small wild land fires occurred during the month, one of which, the Zacattack fire, caused the evacuation of 30 homes in Old Bisbee's Brewery Gulch, but no damage. Three wildfires--Sycamore Canyon, Warren and Warsaw--grew to around or over 1000 acres.

Drought, Galiuro and Pinaleno Mountains

When
May 1, 12:00 AM MST to May 31, 11:59 PM MST
Where
Galiuro and Pinaleno Mountains forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
32.572, -110.328 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

The exceptional (D4) and extreme (D3) drought categories continued across a large part of southeast Arizona during May, with the exception of western Pima County. Rain for the month totaled less than 0.10 inch in most areas with spotty amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch on May 20-21. Showers on May 14 only produced light rain, but gusty winds produced blowing dust from Willcox to San Simon. Soil moisture readings remained below the 5th percentile ranking, except around the 10th percentile ranking in Greenlee and southeast Graham counties. Levels at San Carlos Reservoir remained near zero percent of capacity. At least two dozen small wild land fires occurred during the month, one of which, the Zacattack fire, caused the evacuation of 30 homes in Old Bisbee's Brewery Gulch, but no damage. Three wildfires--Sycamore Canyon, Warren and Warsaw--grew to around or over 1000 acres.

Drought, Chiricahua Mountains

When
May 1, 12:00 AM MST to May 31, 11:59 PM MST
Where
Chiricahua Mountains forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
31.880, -109.751 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

The exceptional (D4) and extreme (D3) drought categories continued across a large part of southeast Arizona during May, with the exception of western Pima County. Rain for the month totaled less than 0.10 inch in most areas with spotty amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch on May 20-21. Showers on May 14 only produced light rain, but gusty winds produced blowing dust from Willcox to San Simon. Soil moisture readings remained below the 5th percentile ranking, except around the 10th percentile ranking in Greenlee and southeast Graham counties. Levels at San Carlos Reservoir remained near zero percent of capacity. At least two dozen small wild land fires occurred during the month, one of which, the Zacattack fire, caused the evacuation of 30 homes in Old Bisbee's Brewery Gulch, but no damage. Three wildfires--Sycamore Canyon, Warren and Warsaw--grew to around or over 1000 acres.

Drought, Dragoon/Mule/Huachuca and Santa Rita Mountains

When
May 1, 12:00 AM MST to May 31, 11:59 PM MST
Where
Dragoon/Mule/Huachuca and Santa Rita Mountains forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
31.834, -110.796 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

The exceptional (D4) and extreme (D3) drought categories continued across a large part of southeast Arizona during May, with the exception of western Pima County. Rain for the month totaled less than 0.10 inch in most areas with spotty amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch on May 20-21. Showers on May 14 only produced light rain, but gusty winds produced blowing dust from Willcox to San Simon. Soil moisture readings remained below the 5th percentile ranking, except around the 10th percentile ranking in Greenlee and southeast Graham counties. Levels at San Carlos Reservoir remained near zero percent of capacity. At least two dozen small wild land fires occurred during the month, one of which, the Zacattack fire, caused the evacuation of 30 homes in Old Bisbee's Brewery Gulch, but no damage. Three wildfires--Sycamore Canyon, Warren and Warsaw--grew to around or over 1000 acres.

Drought, Santa Catalina and Rincon Mountains

When
May 1, 12:00 AM MST to May 31, 11:59 PM MST
Where
Santa Catalina and Rincon Mountains forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
32.501, -111.567 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

The exceptional (D4) and extreme (D3) drought categories continued across a large part of southeast Arizona during May, with the exception of western Pima County. Rain for the month totaled less than 0.10 inch in most areas with spotty amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch on May 20-21. Showers on May 14 only produced light rain, but gusty winds produced blowing dust from Willcox to San Simon. Soil moisture readings remained below the 5th percentile ranking, except around the 10th percentile ranking in Greenlee and southeast Graham counties. Levels at San Carlos Reservoir remained near zero percent of capacity. At least two dozen small wild land fires occurred during the month, one of which, the Zacattack fire, caused the evacuation of 30 homes in Old Bisbee's Brewery Gulch, but no damage. Three wildfires--Sycamore Canyon, Warren and Warsaw--grew to around or over 1000 acres.

Drought, Baboquivari Mountains

When
May 1, 12:00 AM MST to May 31, 11:59 PM MST
Where
Baboquivari Mountains forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
32.097, -111.790 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

The exceptional (D4) and extreme (D3) drought categories continued across a large part of southeast Arizona during May, with the exception of western Pima County. Rain for the month totaled less than 0.10 inch in most areas with spotty amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch on May 20-21. Showers on May 14 only produced light rain, but gusty winds produced blowing dust from Willcox to San Simon. Soil moisture readings remained below the 5th percentile ranking, except around the 10th percentile ranking in Greenlee and southeast Graham counties. Levels at San Carlos Reservoir remained near zero percent of capacity. At least two dozen small wild land fires occurred during the month, one of which, the Zacattack fire, caused the evacuation of 30 homes in Old Bisbee's Brewery Gulch, but no damage. Three wildfires--Sycamore Canyon, Warren and Warsaw--grew to around or over 1000 acres.

What these are

Drought
A drought reaching severe (D2) or worse on the US Drought Monitor, or with notable impacts.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Arizona in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Arizona, May 2021

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 958503, 963023, 963024, 963025, 963026, 963027, 963028, 963029, 963030, 963031, 963032, 963033, 963034, 963035.