Arizona, 2021Drought in Arizona, March 1 to 31, 2021
March 1 to 31, 2021 · NWS TWC · 14 events in 14 counties and zones
The exceptional (D4) and extreme (D3) drought categories continued across a large part of southeast Arizona during March, with the exception of western Pima County. 5 inch, or 15 to 75 percent of normal.
Every event with a place to put it; 14 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
- Tornadoes
- Tropical storms and surge
- Floods
- Wind
- Hail
- Winter weather
- Heat and drought
- Cold
- Fire, smoke and dust
- Marine and coastal
- Other
Open the live radar over this ground
- Deaths
- 0
- Injuries
- 0
- Property damage
- None recorded
- Crop damage
- None recorded
- Events
- 14
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The exceptional (D4) and extreme (D3) drought categories continued across a large part of southeast Arizona during March, with the exception of western Pima County. Precipitation totals for the month totaled 0.5 to 1.5 inches in some areas or 75 to 125 percent of normal, but many areas only received between 0.1 and 0.5 inch, or 15 to 75 percent of normal. Soil moisture readings remained very low, below the 5th percentile ranking across Santa Cruz, eastern Pima and Pinal and western Graham counties and below the 10th percentile ranking elsewhere. Levels at San Carlos Reservoir fell to less than 1 percent of storage capacity. Around 20 small wild land fires occurred during the month, but all were quickly suppressed.
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 28, 2:45 PM MST, 9 hours 15 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Feb 28, 2:45 PM MST, 9 hours 15 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
245 PM MST Sun Feb 28 2021
.SYNOPSIS...A fire weather red flag warning and a public wind
advisory will continue until this evening for areas east and
south of Tucson. The weather system bringing the gusty winds today
will bring a much colder airmass across the area tonight as it
moves into New Mexico. A freeze warning has been issued for areas
from Tucson west and northwest. The area will be in between
systems Monday and Tuesday before the next one arrives on
Wednesday bringing increasing chances of valley rain and mountain
snow showers. Dry and warmer Friday into next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A weather system currently pushing SE across eastern
AZ has brought strong gusty winds, areas of blowing dust and much
cooler than normal high temperatures on the last day of February
2021. Dewpoints have crated from 13 degrees below zero to single
digits above zero. At 101 pm, the surface dewpoint at the Tucson
airport was 13 below zero which, based on a quick look back at
February data, is the lowest since -14 at 2 pm on Feb 2 2011. On
the wind side, peak gusts so far today as of this writing were
between 30 and 40 mph which has caused some blowing dust across
I-10 from Willcox to the AZ/NM border. Current wind advisory and
red flag warning continues until 7 pm.
This above mentioned system will briefly close off over Graham
county later this afternoon before pushing into SW NM this
evening. Scattered cumulus clouds across eastern areas will push
east this evening. A much colder airmass will be ushered in as the
system departs setting up for a rather cold night with mid teens
and 20's east and south of Tucson, mid 20's to mid 30's from
across Pima and Pinal counties. It's been over a month since last
widespread freeze across the lower deserts, thus have hoisted a
Freeze warning for eastern/central Pima and south- central Pinal
county Monday morning from 2 am to 9 am. Due to the low dewpoints
decided to undercut NBM guidance, similar to this past Friday
morning, by a few degrees.
Monday/Tuesday: Warmer as high pressure builds over the area.
Highs each day will be around 10 degrees warmer from previous day.
Wednesday/Thursday: Wednesday starts off dry before a southern
stream system brings a slight chance to chance of valley rain and
mountain snow to the area Wednesday night into Thursday. Liquid
and frozen amounts will be on the light side. Highs Wednesday
similar to Tuesday then cooler on Thursday by around 4 to 8
degrees depending on location.
Friday into next weekend: Dry and warmer under high pressure
aloft.
&&
.AVIATION...Valid through 01/12Z.
Clear skies and SKC conditions will continue across most of the area
thru the forecast period, with SCT-BKN clouds at 10k-15k ft MSL from
KSAD NE into the White Mountains between 28/19Z and 01/03Z. There
will also be a slight chance of -SHSN in the White Mountains well to
the NE of KSAD.
SFC wind less than 12 kts thru 28/16Z, then increasing SFC wind with
strong and gusty winds across the entire forecast area this
afternoon and early evening. Expect WLY/NWLY SFC wind at 18-30 kts
and gusts to 35-45 kts between 28/19Z and 01/02Z. Slowly diminishing
SFC wind aft 01/02Z and SFC wind generally less than 12 kts by
01/06Z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Critical fire weather conditions are forecast
this afternoon and early evening generally east/southeast of a line
from Patagonia Lake to Fort Thomas to Clifton. A Red Flag Warning
remains in effect from Noon through 7 pm today. ERCs below about
6,000 ft are currently at levels typical of mid April with a High
Fire Danger Rating forecast. West to Northwesterly 20-foot winds of
20-30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph are expected this afternoon into
the early evening hours, with Min RH values of 6-13 percent. Further
north over Fire Zone 153 there is a slight chance of snow showers
over the higher peaks of the White mountains.
Breezy easterly winds are expected Monday through midday Tuesday,
with dry conditions continuing. There will be a chance of showers
Wednesday into Thursday as a system moves across the region. Dry
conditions and warmer temperatures return by next weekend.
&&
.CLIMATE...The forecast low for Monday morning, the first day of
climatological Spring, of 29 degrees at the Tucson Intl airport
would be colder then what was recorded in climatological Winter
(30 degrees on January 10). If the forecast is right, this would
be the first such occurrence of Spring recording a colder seasonal
low than Winter since 2002 (25 on Jan 24 to 24 on Mar 3).
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MST this evening for AZZ151-152-154.
Wind Advisory until 7 PM MST this evening for AZZ503-507>513.
Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM MST Monday for AZZ502-504-505.
&&
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Drought, Tohono O Odham Nation
- When
- March 1, 12:00 AM MST to March 31, 11:59 PM MST
- Where
- Tohono O Odham Nation forecast zone
- Reported by
- Drought Monitor
- Coordinates
- 32.501, -111.567 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
The exceptional (D4) and extreme (D3) drought categories continued across a large part of southeast Arizona during March, with the exception of western Pima County. Precipitation totals for the month totaled 0.5 to 1.5 inches in some areas or 75 to 125 percent of normal, but many areas only received between 0.1 and 0.5 inch, or 15 to 75 percent of normal. Soil moisture readings remained very low, below the 5th percentile ranking across Santa Cruz, eastern Pima and Pinal and western Graham counties and below the 10th percentile ranking elsewhere. Levels at San Carlos Reservoir fell to less than 1 percent of storage capacity. Around 20 small wild land fires occurred during the month, but all were quickly suppressed.
Drought, Upper Santa Cruz River and Altar Valleys
- When
- March 1, 12:00 AM MST to March 31, 11:59 PM MST
- Where
- Upper Santa Cruz River and Altar Valleys forecast zone
- Reported by
- Drought Monitor
- Coordinates
- 31.812, -111.318 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
The exceptional (D4) and extreme (D3) drought categories continued across a large part of southeast Arizona during March, with the exception of western Pima County. Precipitation totals for the month totaled 0.5 to 1.5 inches in some areas or 75 to 125 percent of normal, but many areas only received between 0.1 and 0.5 inch, or 15 to 75 percent of normal. Soil moisture readings remained very low, below the 5th percentile ranking across Santa Cruz, eastern Pima and Pinal and western Graham counties and below the 10th percentile ranking elsewhere. Levels at San Carlos Reservoir fell to less than 1 percent of storage capacity. Around 20 small wild land fires occurred during the month, but all were quickly suppressed.
Drought, Tucson Metro Area
- When
- March 1, 12:00 AM MST to March 31, 11:59 PM MST
- Where
- Tucson Metro Area forecast zone
- Reported by
- Drought Monitor
- Coordinates
- 32.097, -111.790 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
The exceptional (D4) and extreme (D3) drought categories continued across a large part of southeast Arizona during March, with the exception of western Pima County. Precipitation totals for the month totaled 0.5 to 1.5 inches in some areas or 75 to 125 percent of normal, but many areas only received between 0.1 and 0.5 inch, or 15 to 75 percent of normal. Soil moisture readings remained very low, below the 5th percentile ranking across Santa Cruz, eastern Pima and Pinal and western Graham counties and below the 10th percentile ranking elsewhere. Levels at San Carlos Reservoir fell to less than 1 percent of storage capacity. Around 20 small wild land fires occurred during the month, but all were quickly suppressed.
Drought, South Central Pinal County
- When
- March 1, 12:00 AM MST to March 31, 11:59 PM MST
- Where
- South Central Pinal County forecast zone
- Reported by
- Drought Monitor
- Coordinates
- 32.904, -111.345 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
The exceptional (D4) and extreme (D3) drought categories continued across a large part of southeast Arizona during March, with the exception of western Pima County. Precipitation totals for the month totaled 0.5 to 1.5 inches in some areas or 75 to 125 percent of normal, but many areas only received between 0.1 and 0.5 inch, or 15 to 75 percent of normal. Soil moisture readings remained very low, below the 5th percentile ranking across Santa Cruz, eastern Pima and Pinal and western Graham counties and below the 10th percentile ranking elsewhere. Levels at San Carlos Reservoir fell to less than 1 percent of storage capacity. Around 20 small wild land fires occurred during the month, but all were quickly suppressed.
Drought, Southeast Pinal County
- When
- March 1, 12:00 AM MST to March 31, 11:59 PM MST
- Where
- Southeast Pinal County forecast zone
- Reported by
- Drought Monitor
- Coordinates
- 32.904, -111.345 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
The exceptional (D4) and extreme (D3) drought categories continued across a large part of southeast Arizona during March, with the exception of western Pima County. Precipitation totals for the month totaled 0.5 to 1.5 inches in some areas or 75 to 125 percent of normal, but many areas only received between 0.1 and 0.5 inch, or 15 to 75 percent of normal. Soil moisture readings remained very low, below the 5th percentile ranking across Santa Cruz, eastern Pima and Pinal and western Graham counties and below the 10th percentile ranking elsewhere. Levels at San Carlos Reservoir fell to less than 1 percent of storage capacity. Around 20 small wild land fires occurred during the month, but all were quickly suppressed.
Drought, Upper San Pedro River Valley
- When
- March 1, 12:00 AM MST to March 31, 11:59 PM MST
- Where
- Upper San Pedro River Valley forecast zone
- Reported by
- Drought Monitor
- Coordinates
- 32.109, -110.569 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
The exceptional (D4) and extreme (D3) drought categories continued across a large part of southeast Arizona during March, with the exception of western Pima County. Precipitation totals for the month totaled 0.5 to 1.5 inches in some areas or 75 to 125 percent of normal, but many areas only received between 0.1 and 0.5 inch, or 15 to 75 percent of normal. Soil moisture readings remained very low, below the 5th percentile ranking across Santa Cruz, eastern Pima and Pinal and western Graham counties and below the 10th percentile ranking elsewhere. Levels at San Carlos Reservoir fell to less than 1 percent of storage capacity. Around 20 small wild land fires occurred during the month, but all were quickly suppressed.
Drought, Eastern Cochise County Below 5000 Feet
- When
- March 1, 12:00 AM MST to March 31, 11:59 PM MST
- Where
- Eastern Cochise County Below 5000 Feet forecast zone
- Reported by
- Drought Monitor
- Coordinates
- 31.880, -109.751 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
The exceptional (D4) and extreme (D3) drought categories continued across a large part of southeast Arizona during March, with the exception of western Pima County. Precipitation totals for the month totaled 0.5 to 1.5 inches in some areas or 75 to 125 percent of normal, but many areas only received between 0.1 and 0.5 inch, or 15 to 75 percent of normal. Soil moisture readings remained very low, below the 5th percentile ranking across Santa Cruz, eastern Pima and Pinal and western Graham counties and below the 10th percentile ranking elsewhere. Levels at San Carlos Reservoir fell to less than 1 percent of storage capacity. Around 20 small wild land fires occurred during the month, but all were quickly suppressed.
Drought, Upper Gila River and Aravaipa Valleys
- When
- March 1, 12:00 AM MST to March 31, 11:59 PM MST
- Where
- Upper Gila River and Aravaipa Valleys forecast zone
- Reported by
- Drought Monitor
- Coordinates
- 33.074, -109.563 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
The exceptional (D4) and extreme (D3) drought categories continued across a large part of southeast Arizona during March, with the exception of western Pima County. Precipitation totals for the month totaled 0.5 to 1.5 inches in some areas or 75 to 125 percent of normal, but many areas only received between 0.1 and 0.5 inch, or 15 to 75 percent of normal. Soil moisture readings remained very low, below the 5th percentile ranking across Santa Cruz, eastern Pima and Pinal and western Graham counties and below the 10th percentile ranking elsewhere. Levels at San Carlos Reservoir fell to less than 1 percent of storage capacity. Around 20 small wild land fires occurred during the month, but all were quickly suppressed.
Drought, White Mountains of Graham and Greenlee Counties
- When
- March 1, 12:00 AM MST to March 31, 11:59 PM MST
- Where
- White Mountains of Graham and Greenlee Counties forecast zone
- Reported by
- Drought Monitor
- Coordinates
- 33.074, -109.563 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
The exceptional (D4) and extreme (D3) drought categories continued across a large part of southeast Arizona during March, with the exception of western Pima County. Precipitation totals for the month totaled 0.5 to 1.5 inches in some areas or 75 to 125 percent of normal, but many areas only received between 0.1 and 0.5 inch, or 15 to 75 percent of normal. Soil moisture readings remained very low, below the 5th percentile ranking across Santa Cruz, eastern Pima and Pinal and western Graham counties and below the 10th percentile ranking elsewhere. Levels at San Carlos Reservoir fell to less than 1 percent of storage capacity. Around 20 small wild land fires occurred during the month, but all were quickly suppressed.
Drought, Galiuro and Pinaleno Mountains
- When
- March 1, 12:00 AM MST to March 31, 11:59 PM MST
- Where
- Galiuro and Pinaleno Mountains forecast zone
- Reported by
- Drought Monitor
- Coordinates
- 32.572, -110.328 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
The exceptional (D4) and extreme (D3) drought categories continued across a large part of southeast Arizona during March, with the exception of western Pima County. Precipitation totals for the month totaled 0.5 to 1.5 inches in some areas or 75 to 125 percent of normal, but many areas only received between 0.1 and 0.5 inch, or 15 to 75 percent of normal. Soil moisture readings remained very low, below the 5th percentile ranking across Santa Cruz, eastern Pima and Pinal and western Graham counties and below the 10th percentile ranking elsewhere. Levels at San Carlos Reservoir fell to less than 1 percent of storage capacity. Around 20 small wild land fires occurred during the month, but all were quickly suppressed.
Drought, Chiricahua Mountains
- When
- March 1, 12:00 AM MST to March 31, 11:59 PM MST
- Where
- Chiricahua Mountains forecast zone
- Reported by
- Drought Monitor
- Coordinates
- 31.880, -109.751 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
The exceptional (D4) and extreme (D3) drought categories continued across a large part of southeast Arizona during March, with the exception of western Pima County. Precipitation totals for the month totaled 0.5 to 1.5 inches in some areas or 75 to 125 percent of normal, but many areas only received between 0.1 and 0.5 inch, or 15 to 75 percent of normal. Soil moisture readings remained very low, below the 5th percentile ranking across Santa Cruz, eastern Pima and Pinal and western Graham counties and below the 10th percentile ranking elsewhere. Levels at San Carlos Reservoir fell to less than 1 percent of storage capacity. Around 20 small wild land fires occurred during the month, but all were quickly suppressed.
Drought, Dragoon/Mule/Huachuca and Santa Rita Mountains
- When
- March 1, 12:00 AM MST to March 31, 11:59 PM MST
- Where
- Dragoon/Mule/Huachuca and Santa Rita Mountains forecast zone
- Reported by
- Drought Monitor
- Coordinates
- 31.834, -110.796 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
The exceptional (D4) and extreme (D3) drought categories continued across a large part of southeast Arizona during March, with the exception of western Pima County. Precipitation totals for the month totaled 0.5 to 1.5 inches in some areas or 75 to 125 percent of normal, but many areas only received between 0.1 and 0.5 inch, or 15 to 75 percent of normal. Soil moisture readings remained very low, below the 5th percentile ranking across Santa Cruz, eastern Pima and Pinal and western Graham counties and below the 10th percentile ranking elsewhere. Levels at San Carlos Reservoir fell to less than 1 percent of storage capacity. Around 20 small wild land fires occurred during the month, but all were quickly suppressed.
Drought, Santa Catalina and Rincon Mountains
- When
- March 1, 12:00 AM MST to March 31, 11:59 PM MST
- Where
- Santa Catalina and Rincon Mountains forecast zone
- Reported by
- Drought Monitor
- Coordinates
- 32.501, -111.567 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
The exceptional (D4) and extreme (D3) drought categories continued across a large part of southeast Arizona during March, with the exception of western Pima County. Precipitation totals for the month totaled 0.5 to 1.5 inches in some areas or 75 to 125 percent of normal, but many areas only received between 0.1 and 0.5 inch, or 15 to 75 percent of normal. Soil moisture readings remained very low, below the 5th percentile ranking across Santa Cruz, eastern Pima and Pinal and western Graham counties and below the 10th percentile ranking elsewhere. Levels at San Carlos Reservoir fell to less than 1 percent of storage capacity. Around 20 small wild land fires occurred during the month, but all were quickly suppressed.
Drought, Baboquivari Mountains
- When
- March 1, 12:00 AM MST to March 31, 11:59 PM MST
- Where
- Baboquivari Mountains forecast zone
- Reported by
- Drought Monitor
- Coordinates
- 32.097, -111.790 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
The exceptional (D4) and extreme (D3) drought categories continued across a large part of southeast Arizona during March, with the exception of western Pima County. Precipitation totals for the month totaled 0.5 to 1.5 inches in some areas or 75 to 125 percent of normal, but many areas only received between 0.1 and 0.5 inch, or 15 to 75 percent of normal. Soil moisture readings remained very low, below the 5th percentile ranking across Santa Cruz, eastern Pima and Pinal and western Graham counties and below the 10th percentile ranking elsewhere. Levels at San Carlos Reservoir fell to less than 1 percent of storage capacity. Around 20 small wild land fires occurred during the month, but all were quickly suppressed.
- Drought
- A drought reaching severe (D2) or worse on the US Drought Monitor, or with notable impacts.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
- Tornado and Damaging Winds in Georgia, March 1, 20211 death · $295,000 · EF1 · 4 events
- Flooding in West Virginia, March 1 to 4, 2021$412,000 · 47 events
- Flash Flooding and Debris Flows in Kentucky, March 1 to 2, 2021$75,000 · 74 events
- Strong Wind in Vermont, March 1, 2021$255,000 · 16 events
- Flood in Nebraska, March 1 to 5, 2021$500,000 · 1 event
- Flooding in Kentucky, March 1 to 5, 2021$100,000 · 5 events
- High Wind and Strong Wind in Massachusetts, March 1 to 2, 2021$58,000 · 68 kt wind · 15 events
- Flooding in Ohio, March 1 to 5, 2021$74,000 · 9 events
- Flooding in Kentucky, March 1 to 25, 2021$72,000 · 7 events
- Flooding in Tennessee, March 1, 2021$70,000 · 3 events
- High Wind and Strong Wind in New York, March 1 to 2, 2021$22,000 · 50 kt wind · 27 events
- Flooding and Heavy Rain in West Virginia, March 1 to 2, 2021$50,000 · 10 events
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 948898, 948899, 948900, 948901, 948902, 948903, 948904, 948905, 948906, 948907, 948908, 948909, 948910, 948911.