Wildfire in Arizona, June 16 to 28, 2021

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
928 AM MST Wed Jun 16 2021

.SYNOPSIS...A strong ridge of high pressure will result in excessive
heat the rest of the week. This high pressure centered over the four
corners region will help more mid-level moisture to increase across
the area with the prospects of daily isolated mainly dry
thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Mostly sunny skies across the region this morning and
we're already starting on quite a hot note with temperatures in the
upper 80's to mid 90's as of 9 am for valley and desert locations.
These values are within a couple of degrees either side of observed
values 24 hours ago. Excessive Heat Warnings and high temperatures
continue to look good, though we might be a degree or two too cool
in some spots but not enough confidence to update temperatures.

Looking at moisture, current PWAT values range from 0.50" to 0.9"
with the lower values across Santa Cruz and Cochise County and the
highest values over the deserts to the NW and W of Tucson. Given the
east to northeast mid level steering flow, CAMs are in excellent
agreement with the main threat being convection developing across
the White Mountains and Gila Mountains of New Mexico and then
pushing southwest to west across Graham County and thereafter
perhaps into portions of Pinal County this evening if it makes it.
This convection will start a bit on the later side, around mid
afternoon across the higher terrain pushing into the lower
elevations from Safford westward during the very late afternoon and
more likely during the evening hours. Main threats will be very
gusty outflow winds and blowing dust. Given the quicker motion of
these storms along with marginal moisture levels, some of these
thunderstorms will likely be on the dry side with little rainfall.
We also can't rule out a mainly dry thunderstorm or two to the west
of Tucson this afternoon where higher PWAT values reside over the
deserts but confidence is low. We've gone ahead and updated the
forecast to expand coverage of slight chance PoPs thunderstorms this
evening to the north and northeast of Tucson. No other updates this
morning.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 17/12Z.
SKC-SCT clouds generally above 15k ft MSL much of the period. Minor
reduction in visibility throughout the day due to wildfire smoke
and/or blowing dust. ISOLD TS/-SHRA this afternoon and evening
mainly across the White Mountains NE of KSAD. Outflow gusts up to 35
kts possible near any TS that develop. Otherwise, SFC wind becoming
ELY 10-15 kts with gusts to 25 kts this afternoon, with strongest
winds at terminals nearest the Int'l border. SFC wind generally less
than 10 kts other times. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Near record heat will continue each day this
week with humidities increasing slightly by the weekend. There is a
slight chance for afternoon and evening thunderstorms across the
White Mountains each day through Friday, with a bit more southward
expansion by Saturday as a bit of early monsoon moisture attempts to
move into the region. Sunday and Monday look dry for now, with
slight thunderstorm chances returning the middle of next week. Any
rainfall amounts should be on the lighter side due to the overall
dryness of the atmosphere, increasing the chances for dry lightning
strikes and gusty outflow winds in excess of 35 mph. 20-ft winds
will otherwise remain less than 15 mph, with typical afternoon
gustiness due to strong heating.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...An excessive heat warning remains in effect of
most of SE AZ the rest of the week. Although still hot, the warning
does not include Cochise county and elevations above 5,000 feet. In
addition to the dangerous heat, many record high temperatures will
continue to be set the next few days. Refer to the climate section
in this product for more details on the projected record highs.
Otherwise, a few showers and thunderstorms managed to
develop yesterday as mid-level moisture continued to increase across
the area. Still expecting isolated or spotty showers and
thunderstorms this week as moisture remains rather limited despite
the favorable flow pattern in place.

&&

.CLIMATE...The record and near record heat will continue the rest
of the week. Tucson International Airport's temperature yesterday
soared to 115 degrees which broke the 2nd oldest June record high
temperature set back in 1869.

Here is a list of record or near record high temperatures for the
next few days:
                       Today           Jun 17           Jun 18
                      FCST RCD/YR      FCST RCD/YR      FCST RCD/YR
TUCSON INTL AIRPORT  113 109/1988     113 109/2015     112 113/1989
AJO                  113 112/1916     116 113/1917     113 114/1936
KITT PEAK             97  94/1974      98  91/1985      95  90/2001
ORGAN PIPE CACTUS    112 110/1993     116 111/2015     112 114/1989
PICACHO PEAK         116 111/2000     116 111/2008     115 112/1989
SAFFORD AG STATION   113 105/2002     112 106/2015     111 107/2015
SIERRA VISTA FD      105 103/2017     105 103/1989     102 107/1989
TOMBSTONE            106 105/1985     105 105/1980     104 107/1989
WILLCOX              106 105/1948     105 105/1985     104 106/1989

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM MST Saturday for AZZ501>506-509.

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