High pressure centered near the Four Corners brought moisture over Arizona which developed into strong thunderstorms.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FGZ wrote it up.
High pressure centered near the Four Corners brought moisture over Arizona which developed into strong thunderstorms.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 3, 2:39 PM MST, 1 hour 4 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 239 PM MST Sat Jul 3 2021 .SYNOPSIS...Scattered shower and thunderstorm activity will continue each afternoon and evening through the 4th of July. Starting Monday a drier northeast flow and strengthening high pressure will usher in decreasing storm activity and increasing temperatures through the week. && .DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms will continue this evening and Sunday afternoon with primary hazards including frequent lightning, locally heavy downpours with the potential for flash flooding and gusty outflow winds. Storm activity should continue every afternoon through the end of next week, although, the high looks to shift to a less favorable position. This shift looks as if it could be responsible for increasing heat and decreasing chances of thunderstorm potential starting on Monday and lasting through the week. The Excessive Heat Advisory remains in effect through 6 p.m. Friday as temperatures ramp up to criteria level through this time. && .AVIATION...For the 00Z package...Expect VFR conditions through 03Z except VFR/MVFR with convection. WDSPRD SHRA/TSRA and isold +TSRA along and south of the I-40 corridor from 00Z-03Z. Isold coverage north of the I-40 corridor. Daytime sfc winds W-SW5-15kts outside of any convection. Expect an identical pattern after 18Z Sunday. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will continue through Sunday, especially south of the I-40 corridor. Isolated activity north of the I-40 corridor. Locally heavy rainfall, gusty outflow winds, and lightning are the primary hazards. Generally light winds are expected. Monday through Wednesday...Expect a slight decrease in convective activity, with drier air over the northern and west-central zones. Daytime temperatures will increase during this period. Winds remaining generally light. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Excessive Heat Warning until 6 PM MST Friday FOR AZZ006. && PUBLIC...Kobold AVIATION...Kobold FIRE WEATHER...Kobold For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 225 PM MST Sat Jul 3 2021 AZZ008-037-038-032200- Yavapai County Valleys and Basins-Yavapai County Mountains-Oak Creek and Sycamore Canyons- 225 PM MST Sat Jul 3 2021 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CAMP VERDE AND MIDDLE VERDE IN YAVAPAI COUNTY UNTIL 300 PM MST... At 224 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over Cornville, or 9 miles northwest of Camp Verde, moving southwest at 15 mph. Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm. Locations impacted include... Camp Verde, Verde Village, Bridgeport, Mcguireville, Cherry, Cottonwood, Montezuma Castle National Monument, Middle Verde, Page Springs, Lake Montezuma, Cornville and Powell Springs Campground. LAT...LON 3479 11196 3473 11176 3447 11177 3457 11222 TIME...MOT...LOC 2124Z 037DEG 11KT 3469 11194 ET
The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 95 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 22:45 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Thunderstorms produced heavy rain and flooding from Dewey and the Agua Fria River to Humbug Creek and Mayer. Water was flowing over roads in Dewey and Meyer. A river gauge in Meyer showed a two foot rise.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arizona in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Arizona, July 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 975952.