Hail in Arizona, July 12, 2021

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
941 AM MST Mon Jul 12 2021

.SYNOPSIS...More significant moisture will return today, with
greater chances for showers and thunderstorms across much of
northern and central Arizona through the week.

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.UPDATE...Increasing moisture today will lead to an uptick in
monsoonal thunderstorm activity beginning later this morning over
the high terrain. Isolated to scattered thunderstorm coverage then
increases into the lower elevations by mid to late afternoon per
continued high resolution model guidance. The coverage is expected
to slowly decrease through the later evening hours with the loss
of diurnal heating and the more stable atmosphere setting up
across northern Arizona. An isolated severe thunderstorm is not
out of the question through late this afternoon.

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.PREV DISCUSSION /316 AM MST/...The forecast period will feature a
significant uptick in monsoon activity as high pressure weakens
and ample moisture surges in from the south. Expect more
widespread thunderstorms along the Rim and pushing into the lower
elevations compared to yesterday. Additionally, anticipate
isolated chances for thunderstorms across northeastern Arizona
this afternoon. Due to continued hot temperatures while the high
pressure breaks down, the potential for severe thunderstorms will
continue with damaging winds and hail as the primary threats
where stronger storms set up.

Along with widespread shower and thunderstorm chances from
Tuesday onward, expect temperatures to cool back to near normal
values for mid-July. Be sure to have a reliable way to receive
warnings over the next several days as the flash flood threat
increases due to the saturated environment. After the "nonsoons"
that took place the last two summers, its safe to say the monsoon
is here!

&&

.AVIATION...For the 18Z package...Expect mainly VFR conditions
prevail for the duration of the TAF period. Convective activity
will redevelop over the high terrain today then move southwest
into the lower valleys through the late afternoon and early
evening. Thunderstorm coverage decreases late this evening through
the early overnight period. General west to southwest winds 5-15
kts to occur outside of gusty and erratic winds near thunderstorms.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... Thunderstorm activity will increase through
Tuesday, along with better chances for wetting rains. Winds will
remain between 5-15 mph, except near thunderstorms where gusty
and erratic winds are favored.

Wednesday through Friday...Scattered to numerous thunderstorm are
expected each day, with cooler temperatures and generally light
winds. The flash flood threat will become the primary hazard.

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.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...NL/Kobold
AVIATION...NL
FIRE WEATHER...NL

For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff