Arizona, 2021

Excessive Heat in Arizona, August 26 to 30, 2021

August 26 to 30, 2021 · NWS VEF · 3 events in 3 counties and zones

High pressure building in from the east brought five days of excessive heat to much of the Mojave Desert.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

  • Tornadoes
  • Tropical storms and surge
  • Floods
  • Wind
  • Hail
  • Winter weather
  • Heat and drought
  • Cold
  • Fire, smoke and dust
  • Marine and coastal
  • Other

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The toll

Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
None recorded
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
3

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS VEF wrote it up.

High pressure building in from the east brought five days of excessive heat to much of the Mojave Desert.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Las Vegas, NV wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 26, 9:55 AM MST, 1 hour 5 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 26, 9:55 AM MST, 1 hour 5 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
955 AM PDT Thu Aug 26 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Hot and dry conditions will continue through the weekend
across most of the area although monsoon moisture creeping in from
the south is expected to limit the extent of afternoon heating in
our southern areas and could bring a few isolated showers and
thunderstorms to Mohave County on Sunday. During the early to middle
part of next week, shower and thunderstorm coverage expands west and
north to include eastern and southern San Bernardino County and
Clark, Lincoln, and Mohave counties.

&&

.UPDATE...Multitude of wildfires across California will continue to
create areas of dense smoke/haze/lower visibility's across Inyo and
Esmeralda Counties. The visibility at Bishop has dropped to 4 miles
over the past few hours. Elsewhere, hazy conditions will persist.

Narrow axis of mid-level moisture that got pulled inland between the
Great Basin trough and southern Plains high is draped across San
Bernardino and southern Mohave Counties this morning. Convective
allowing models show any convection will develop/stay east of Mohave
County today. Models suggest drier intrusion of air associated with
Great Basin trough will keep the threat of thunderstorms on Friday
to areas from Flagstaff east.

No update necessary this morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today through Wednesday.

We are keeping an eye on what could be a transitional change from
hot and dry conditions area wide through the weekend along with a
low grade monsoon moisture surge across our southern areas over the
weekend. There is some potential, but a great deal of uncertainty,
regarding a more substantial moisture surge featuring tropical
characteristics next week. Details of this potential surge is
explained quite well in the section marked [Tropical] below.

Focusing on heat related concerns in the near term, a somewhat
marginal heat event, both in terms of coverage and duration, will
get underway today. An Excessive Heat Warning is in effect for today
and Friday across southern San Bernardino County including the
Morongo Basin, the Colorado River Valley, and across the Northwest
Deserts of Mohave County including areas in and around Yucca,
Wikieup, and Kingman. Moderate to high heat risk is expected in
these areas with dangerously hot temperatures increasing the chance
of those exposed for extended periods experiencing heat related
illnesses. If working for long periods in the heat or participating
in outdoor activities, be prepared to take precautions by taking
more frequent breaks away from the heat if possible and increasing
hydration.

Over the weekend, moisture increasing across the south is expected
to lower temperatures particularly if we also see the sun filtered
by increasing debris clouds. A bit further north, the dangerously
hot conditions are forecast to expand into parts of Clark and
southern Nye counties over the weekend. An Excessive Heat Warning
has been issued for these areas for Saturday and Sunday including
the Las Vegas Valley, the Moapa Valley in northeastern Clark County,
the Pahrump Valley in southern Nye County. The warning continues
across the Lake Mead Recreational Area.

For next week...monsoon moisture increases and thunderstorms return.

[TROPICAL] As of the 1 am update this morning from the National
Hurricane Center, the strength and track of Tropical Depression
Fourteen-E remains similar to the previous forecast. It will undergo
a few trajectory changes as the area of high pressure over the
southern United States weakens. It is forecast to become a tropical
storm today and a hurricane by early Sunday. The forecast track will
essentially skirt it along the curve of western Mexico before
pushing northwestward along the western edge of Baja California. As
it does this, it will move into an area of reduced shear and warmer
sea surface temperatures, which will likely be enough to allow it to
strengthen into a hurricane this weekend, becoming Hurricane Nora.
Forecast PWAT values associated with this system exceed 2 inches,
which will allow PWAT values of 1.5-2.0" to overtake Sonora and 1.0-
1.5" to inch up the Colorado River Valley into southern Nevada and
northwest Arizona.

We will be able to get more specific with forecast details next week
in the next few days. As it stands, we are expecting isolated to
scattered thunderstorms across northwestern Arizona and the higher
elevations of southern Nevada next week.

[COMPARING 2021 NORA TO 2014 NORBERT] While it may be an obvious
comparison to look back at the previous Hurricane Nora from
September 16-26, 1997, a more intriguing comparison would be to
Hurricane Norbert from September 6-9, 2014, which was a driving
force for the catastrophic flooding in Moapa Valley, and ultimately
led to the closure of a portion of Interstate 15. The similarities
between the two systems will continue to be investigated by our
staff over the next few days, but so far:

- Very similar forecast tracks, with 2021 Hurricane Nora expected to
hit the "sweet spot" just southwest of Baja California this weekend
that would allow for a robust moisture flux into the Desert
Southwest.

- [2014] Hurricane Norbert was fueled by the remnants of Tropical
Storm Dolly, a product of Atlantic Hurricane Season, that moved over
northeastern Mexico just prior to Hurricane Norbert passing through
the Baja. [2021] The National Hurricane Center is highlighting a
disturbance approaching the Gulf of Mexico with a 50% chance of
cyclone formation in the next 48 hours and 80% chance of cyclone
formation in the next 5 days. The ECMWF Ensemble forecast shows PWAT
values of 2.0-3.0" spreading across eastern Texas and northeastern
Mexico, that would likely produce a similar moisture set up as
experienced in 2014. However, the GEFS shows a further east track of
the system, disallowing as much moisture to push westward.

- [2014] Additional forcing aloft was experienced with remnant
Norbert due to an incoming trough digging down from the Pacific
Northwest. [2021] Ensemble forecasts allude to another trough
dropping down from the Pacific Northwest Wednesday and Thursday of
next week, which would coincide with forecast peak PWAT values.

We will continue to assess the potential impacts of Tropical
Depression Fourteen-E as confidence and details increase through the
week. As it stands, best chances for precipitation are on Wednesday
and Thursday. Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...For McCarran...Winds through mid-morning should favor
southerly directions with speeds generally below 10 knots. Winds
will shift more southwesterly and strengthen by late morning with
gusts of 20-25 knots possible, before gradually easing again
overnight. Skies will be mostly clear but lingering haze can be
expected from regional wildfire activity.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Southwesterly breezes expected across much of the
region today, strongest in the afternoon and evening hours. Gusts of
15 to 25 knots are likely, strongest near KDAG. Exception to the
winds will be near KBIH where more typical diurnal wind patterns are
expected along with lingering smoke, though significant visibility
reductions are not anticipated.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

DISCUSSION...Salmen
TROPICAL DISCUSSION...Varian
AVIATION...Outler

For more forecast information...see us on our webpage:
https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

3 excessive heat. Local standard time, as filed.

Excessive Heat, Lake Havasu and Fort Mohave

When
August 26, 11:00 AM MST to August 29, 8:00 PM MST
Where
Lake Havasu and Fort Mohave forecast zone
Reported by
Official NWS Observations
Coordinates
35.704, -113.758 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Excessive Heat Warning criteria were reached four days in a row.

Excessive Heat, Northwest Deserts

When
August 26, 11:00 AM MST to August 29, 8:00 PM MST
Where
Northwest Deserts forecast zone
Reported by
Official NWS Observations

Excessive Heat Warning criteria were reached four days in a row.

Excessive Heat, Lake Mead National Recreation Area

When
August 26, 11:00 AM MST to August 30, 8:00 PM MST
Where
Lake Mead National Recreation Area forecast zone
Reported by
Official NWS Observations

Excessive Heat Warning criteria were reached five days in a row.

What these are

Excessive Heat
Heat at or above the local excessive heat warning criteria, or heat that caused deaths.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Arizona in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Arizona, August 2021

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 981090, 981091, 981092.