A quick moving Low pressure system moved ashore and brought high winds to the southern Alaska Panhandle.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS AJK wrote it up.
A quick moving Low pressure system moved ashore and brought high winds to the southern Alaska Panhandle.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 21, 3:41 PM AKST, 10 hours 22 minutes earlier.
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
341 PM AKST Sun Nov 21 2021
.SHORT TERM...Sunday has proven to be a near equally complex
forecast as last night and yesterday. With a weaker low embedded
deep in the cold air across the northern gulf, the winter storm
warning for Upper Lynn Canal was extended earlier and we are
extending it yet again tonight. An expected southerly wind surge
from the much warmer central Inner Channels has proven harder to
forecast up Lynn Canal. Temperatures in Juneau have pushed mostly
into the mid and upper 30s with Gustavus already past 40. Southern
Lynn Canal winds have accelerated to 30 kt southerly as northern
Lynn Canal stubbornly defends Upper Lynn Canal's frigid cold air
dome with 15 kt northerlies. Haines in the upper teens and
Skagway in the lower 20s have been locked in cold air all weekend
with strong overrunning causing heavy snowfall in the area. While
NAMnest high res model holds off the southerlies all night long,
south of Haines and suggests snowfall does not turn to rain at sea
level, but instead finally just abates as dynamics and moisture
fall. So there is high uncertainty with what happens with Upper
Lynn Canal snow and any transition to rain. We have gone with more
of a NAM favored solution with the warmer air, in part because of
such strong upper level dynamics to lead the momentum of the
southerly winds at the surface. Thus, our best guess is to go with
heavy snow through 06Z, at which time we will see a warm up and a
transition to rain at sea level. The warning has been extended to
15Z Monday to account for errors of timing.
Freezing rain also impacted Juneau, Gustavus, and Hyder. There is
a real chance of snow melt cooling tonight with a changeover back
to snow in Hyder. With coordination with Canada, we elected to go
with a transition back to snow later. We significantly lowered
snow ratios to forecast 3 to 5 inches of snowfall tonight, with
another 1 to 2 tomorrow. We should get more warming Monday as a
low moves into Canada and imposes stronger southerlies through
Portland Canal.
The low mentioned above is now forecast to come in stronger.
Analysis of both ECMWF and GFS ensembles indicate there is a good
chance of high wind gusts tonight in the Ketchikan and Annette
Island areas. A high wind warning was posted for tonight from 9 PM
through 6 AM for the southern Inner Channels. The best chance for
winds will be around midnight in our estimation.
With the low entering the southern Panhandle the central Inner
Channels look to return to more northerly flow tonight. Given
showers, but not completely saturated conditions across the north,
we could get sufficient cooling to transition us back to snow by
Monday morning, but amounts should be very light as the strongest
dynamics will clearly be well south. High temperatures should be
cooler on Monday than on Sunday, but confidence is not high and
will be marginally in the neighborhood to support precipitation
type transitions in the north central Panhandle from Monday into
Monday night.
.LONG TERM.../Tuesday through Friday/ Very active and uncertain
winter weather pattern for southeast Alaska through the week
including potentially impactful weather for holiday travel. A
series of fronts and deeper lows track into the AK Gulf
bringing ample moisture which along with initially cold
temperatures that could produce more heavy snow for the central
and northern panhandle before a transition to rain. Meanwhile the
southern panhandle will change over the rain much sooner with
limited snow accumulation, however these areas will be impacted by
heavy rainfall.
Remnants of the low over the Northern Gulf Coast will keep shower
activity over most of the panhandle Tuesday into Tuesday night.
Precipitation amounts including snow expected to be minor, a
couple of inches. Temperatures north of Frederick Sound should be
cold enough for mostly snow with some mix of rain while
temperatures for the southern areas will start to warm with snow
initially then mainly rain. Then Wednesday is where the weather
takes a turn.
We've been tracking the development of a low which is now
projected to move northeast into the AK Gulf from the N Pacific
starting late Tuesday night. Along the front at the triple point
is another developing circulation. Similar to the system that
brought heavy snow to the panhandle over the weekend this system
also has defined warm and cold sectors v an occluded front. Also
the previous northerly gradient and cold air advection sets up for
an over running event. Question is while we've got the long fetch
of tropical moisture for heavy precip concern is warming and when
will the transition snow to rain occur. While increased precip
rates will have snow melt cooling, hence more snow, we don't have
a solid cold air mass in place. In addition the track of this
triple point low has shown large variation run to run, so not
confident resulting weather. MOS guidance has been variable on
snow totals, and while ensemble snow totals are high enough to
warrant the winter weather watch being issued, getting 850 temps
warming rapidly and winds mixing down and warming surface temps
right when the higher QPF values correspond to the higher snow
totals. So in a word, uncertainty with this system on precip type.
What expected: Heavy precip is expected, increased winds are
expected, but snow totals and where/when snow will start and stop
are the issue. Beyond Thursday with an upper low in place for most
of the long range will continue to see more low pressure systems
move into the AK Gulf from the southwest. Overall looking like a
warm and rainy pattern.
Went with a blend of ECMWF/GFS to get the Wednesday system into
the grids. New WPC picked up on this new low but then had little
change beyond Thursday afternoon. Forecast confidence is below
average.
&&
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Storm Watch from late Tuesday night through Thursday
morning for AKZ017>021-025.
Strong Wind until 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ023.
High Wind Warning from 9 PM this evening to 6 AM AKST Monday for
AKZ028.
High Wind Warning from 9 PM to 10 PM AKST Monday for AKZ028.
Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM AKST Monday for AKZ018-019.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ036-041.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-022-031>035-042-043-051>053.
&&
JWA/99
Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/JuneauPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1127 PM AKST SUN NOV 21 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1030 PM HEAVY SNOW 7 SSE HAINES 59.15N 135.35W
11/21/2021 M22.5 INCH HAINES AK TRAINED SPOTTER
SPOTTER MEASURED AN ADDITIONAL 8 INCHES
SINCE 1230PM SUNDAY FOR A STORM TOTAL OF
22.5 INCHES. SNOW HAD STOPPED.
0830 PM SNOW 4 SSE MOSQUITO LAKE 59.40N 136.00W
11/21/2021 M17.5 INCH HAINES AK TRAINED SPOTTER
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL OF 4.25 INCHES SINCE
930AM SUNDAY FOR A STORM TOTAL OF 17.5
INCHES IN THE LAST 28 HOURS. SNOWFALL IS
LIGHT.
&&1 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Saxman Landing mesonet sensor reported wind gusts up to 55kt beginning at 2:03 am on November 22, 2021. Multiple power outages were reported in nearby Ketchikan, Alaska.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Alaska in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Alaska, November 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 994846.