Blizzard in Alaska, January 27, 2021

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
206 AM AKST Wed Jan 27 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong front rotating around a low pressure system in the
Bering Sea will will approach the southwest coast today bringing
snow and gusty winds to the region. Light snow will push inland,
reaching portions of the Interior Thursday. This the clouds and
light snow with this system will support a slight warmup in
temperatures to near average through the weekend, however a
significant cooldown is expected early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Aloft 500 mb...A high amplitude ridge across the eastern Bering
Sea and Alaskan West Coast will push to the east as a deep
longwave trough over the Central Bering Sea pushes to the east
with the ridge expected to move over the Yukon and the trough
expected to be centered over Western Alaska and the Eastern Bering
Sea. An upper level ridge forms and rapidly builds north out of
the Northern Pacific and into the Bering Sea as a deep and very
cold longwave trough digs south and east over mainland Alaska next
week. 850 mb temperatures over Fairbanks are expected to be
around 12 below on Saturday morning will drop to around 22 below
Sunday and Monday.

Models...Considerable differences exist across the model suite
especially beyond this weekend. Both the GFS and ECMWF models
bring a quick warm up next week beginning late Tuesday and
Wednesday with a weak upper level low over the Interior producing
some stratus and perhaps light snow. The Canadian Model remains
consistent from run to run in brining a very cold airmass south
and west into Mainland Alaska and maintaining that very cold airmass
over Northern Alaska through the end of next week. We maintained
forecast continuity in leaning more heavily on the ECMWF and to a
lesser degree on the GFS through the weekend and into next week.
If the ECMWF and GFS begin to migrate toward the Canadian model
solution temperature forecasts will need to be nudged down next
week. Continue to monitor.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Low overcast and a few flurries are likely to continue today as
as a weak front gradually dissipates. An Arctic low over Banks
Island combined with strong high pressure near 80N and the
Dateline will bring stronger northeast winds in the 10 to 20 mph
range as well as light snow over coastal areas of the North Slope.
Temperatures will remain on the cool side of normal into next
week.

West Coast and Western Interior...
A 955 mb low currently located in the Western Bering Sea will
track northeast to pass south of St. Matthew Island as a 976 mb
low Thursday. The accompanying front moving well ahead of the low
will reach St. Lawrence Island and the Y-K Delta later today.
Snow and gusty east to northeast winds are expected across that
region, with the strongest winds gusting to 50 mph at times on St.
Lawrence Island. Light snow will creep into the Western Interior
later today as the system weakens. Much of the area south of the
the Bering Strait to Huslia will see generally 1 to 3 inches of
snow through Friday, with locally higher amounts to 5 inches
farther south. Strong winds could cause reduced visibility in
blowing snow, particularly for St. Lawrence Island today through
Thursday.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Below average temperatures will persist today and this evening,
but will begin to moderate late tonight and Thursday as clouds and
light snow associated with the front pushing east out of the
Western Interior pushes into the area. Light snow will accompany
the front as it tracks north of the Alaska Range late Thursday
into Friday, though accumulations will be light. Expect seasonal
temperatures through the Weekend but well below normal
temperatures over much of the Interior early next week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Gale Warning for PKZ210.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ225.
&&

JAN 21