Cold in Alaska, January 2, 2021

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
344 AM AKST Sat Jan 2 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
SYNOPSIS...The front associated with the strong low in the Bering
Sea continues to weaken as it makes its way over St Lawrence
Island and into the Lower Yukon Delta where conditions continue to
improve. Gusty offshore winds continue north of Red Dog Dock
along the coast with some local blowing snow. Most of the Northern
Alaska state will be partly cloudy with temperatures falling
through the weekend and will remain at or below normal through
early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The 02/00z model suite initialized well against the 00z surface
analysis and verified well against the 06z surface analysis.
Models spread in the short range is minimal and is reasonable in
the medium range but begins to display large spread by the middle
of next week.

Aloft at 500 mb, a 487 dam low centered over the Central Bering
Sea will remain nearly stationary as an upper level ridge over
Central Alaska rapidly weakens as a 500 dam low over Banks Island
moves southwest over Northern Alaska through early next week. An
upper level trough will extend southwest over Western Alaska and
the Eastern Bering Sea from the upper level low over Northern
by Alaska Monday and Tuesday of next week. The longwave trough
over Northern Alaska continues to dig south and west pushing into
the Eastern Bering Sea by Tuesday. An upper level ridge builds
over the Yukon while a series of weak shortwaves pushing north
over the State early next week will provide periods of clouds and
light snow over the Northern Interior and will being periods of
clouds over the Southern Interior. Winds will pick up through the
Alaska Range Passes as these waves pass through the area.

On the Surface the record breaking low pressure system in the
Bering Sea continue to weaken with current central pressure now
around 942 mb. The low will continue to weaken over the next
several days as the low spins in the Bering Sea. A tight gradient
develops along and near the Brooks Range later today and through
Sunday as the deep low in the Bering Sea interacts with high
pressure stretching from Siberia east over the Brooks range and
into the Northern Yukon and Great Slave Lake. Winds are expected
to pick up over the Interior Summits and combined with a chilly
airmass will produce dangerous wind chills in these areas. Wind
Chill Advisories have been issued for the southern slopes of the
Brooks Range and the higher terrain of the Central and Eastern
Interior where wind chill values are expected to drop to around 50
below. A Wind Chill Warning has been issued for the northeastern
foothills and adjacent plains on the North Slope where wind chill
values are expected to reach 70 below.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Areas of stratus and fog continue
to move off of the icepack over the Arctic Coast and will continue
to push over the North Slope for the next several days. Northeast
winds persist at 5 to 15 mph except for the Northwest Coast where
east winds 15 to 25 mph persist where a Wind Chill Advisory
remains in effect into Saturday morning. Wind Chill Warning has
been issued for the Brooks Range, mainly near the passes, with
Wind Chill to 70 below. Temperatures are expected to cool through
the weekend.

West Coast and Western Interior...Front associated with the strong
low in the Central Bering Sea has essentially stalled over St
Lawrence Island and the Lower Yukon Delta.  A few flurries are
possible as far north as Nome, but most precipitation will be in
the Lower Yukon Delta and on St Lawrence Island. The front will be
pulling back to the northwest away from the mainland as the low
stalls near the Dateline. As high pressure pushes south in the
Arctic winds will be increasing as the gradient tightens in the
Chukchi Sea Region with the strongest winds from Red Dog Dock
north. Northeast winds continue to pick up today with 10 to 20
mph expected this morning and 20 to 30 mph Saturday evening. Wind
gusts to around 40 mph are expected with some blowing snow.
Low Wind Chills are expected to develop in the Upper Noatak and
Kobuk region as cold air flows into the area and winds increase to
10 to 20 mph locally. Temperatures will cool through midweek.

Central and Eastern Interior...Mostly clear through the weekend
with temperatures continuing to fall for most areas. Some stratus
and flurries developing in the cold air pooled along the south
slopes of the Eastern Brooks Range tonight and Sunday. Winds on
the Summits north of Fairbanks along the Dalton Highway will be
picking up, so Wind Chill values will be falling this weekend as
colder air pushes in from the northeast and Wind Chill Advisories
have been issued. Some patchy stratus and flurries in the Upper
Tanana Valley and along the north slopes of the Alaska Range will
moderate temperatures tonight, but stratus dissipating Saturday as
cold air pushes into the area.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...A broad area of low pressure
in the the Bering Sea will move south and east then into the Gulf
of Alaska Tuesday. Ridge of high pressure over the Arctic Coast
will persists with high pressure over Siberia, across the
Interior, and Canada. Low that was near the North Pole Friday will
be moving south near the Dateline to Wrangel Island by midweek as
it weakens. Low in the gulf will send a front north over the
Yukon Territory Tuesday which may produce some light snow along
the AlCan Border, and an inverted trough will develop over the
West Coast with snow developing over the Coast from the Bering
Strait south. Temperature will start off below climatological
normals warming to near normals by the end of the week.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Chill Advisory for AKZ201-AKZ208-AKZ217-AKZ218-AKZ219-
AKZ220-AKZ221.

Wind Chill Warning for AKZ206.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ210.

Gale Warning for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ230.
&&

CCC JAN 21