Blizzard in Alaska, December 27 to 29, 2021

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
150 PM AKST Sun Dec 26 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Progressive storm patern will continue for next few
days. Right now a major winter storm is the focus today across
the Interior. Many areas across Northern Alaska can expect copious
amounts of snow, freezing rain, and rain accumulations with this
storm. Snow has transitioned to freezing rain around the Fairbanks
Area earlier this morning. Significant ice accumulations
expected. These conditions, combined with an increase in westerly
winds tonight, may increase chances of widespread power outages
across the greater Fairbanks Area. Elsewhere, rain and freezing
rain has been falling across the Yukon Delta north to the Seward
Peninsula and east into the Western Interior. Precipitation will
slowly taper off early Monday morning, but more snow is expected
Tuesday and Wednesday as a series of storms move across the state.

.DISCUSSION...
Upper Levels and Analysis...
Ridging will slide east and flatten as shortwave troughs ride
along the north and west side, weakening it into Monday. A trough
will reach the West Coast this afternoon, changing the flow from
southwesterly to westerly across Northern Alaska. Weak ridging
will slide quickly across the Bering into the West Coast Monday,
ahead of another shortwave that will move into the Western
Interior by Monday night. Then, another sharp trough will dig
south across the Bering Tuesday and move east into the Central
Interior late Tuesday into Wednesday.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Winter Storm Warnings are still in effect for the Northeastern
Brooks Range and Central Beaufort Coast for heavy snow and blowing
snow concerns, where 5 to 9 inches of snow will fall along the
Dalton Highway and at higher elevations of the Eastern Brooks
Range, including Anaktuvuk Pass. A tight pressure gradient will
set up over the eastern north slope early Monday morning. This
will cause strong westerly winds to develop, creating Blizzard
Conditions that will impact Kaktovik for most of Monday.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Light freezing rain will slowly taper off later this afternoon
along the coast but continue into the evening hours further inland.
The general concensus of freezing rain amounts ranges from one
tenth of an inch in the Lower Yukon Valley to nearly a half inch
for areas from north and east of Galena today. For areas further
north, large amounts of snow are expected across the Western
Interior with additional amounts ranging from 6 to 9 inches for
the Lower Kobuk and Noatak Valleys and the Upper Kobuk and Noatak
Valleys through tonight. Another mixed precip event will move into
the west coast on Monday.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Snow has transitioned to freezing rain around the Fairbanks
Area earlier this morning. These conditions, combined with an
increase in westerly winds tonight, may increase chances of
widespread power outages across the greater Fairbanks Area.
Significant ice accumulations are possible from Fairbanks to
Nenana, along the Parks Highway, today into tonight where one
quarter inch to 1 inch of ice accumulation is possible. Locations
where it stays all snow, significant accumulations are expected,
with the areas north and east of Fairbanks receiving anywhere from
10 to 15 inches. See the Winter Storm Warning statements for more
details on specifics on snow and freezing rain amounts across the
Interior. Temperatures are expected to rise into the mid-30s as
far east as Fairbanks today and linger into Monday, with
temperatures falling slightly into the 20s for Tuesday. More snow
expected Tuesday and Wednesday. It looks to be an all snow event
this time with several inches possible, stay tuned.

Coastal Hazard Potential for Days 3 and 4...
No concerns at this time.

Extended Forecast for Days 4 Through 7...
Beginning the extended period on Wednesday, active weather
continues as a storm rolls across Northern Alaska and exits into
the Yukon by late week. Then, model guidance suggests a quieter
and colder weather pattern across most of Northern Alaska going
into next weekend.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning for AKZ203-AKZ206-AKZ208-AKZ209-AKZ211-
AKZ212-AKZ216-AKZ217-AKZ218-AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222-AKZ223-
AKZ224-AKZ225.

Blizzard Warning for AKZ204.

Gale Warning for PKZ245.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ240.
&&

DEC 21