A line of thunderstorms tracked across north-central Wisconsin during the early morning hours. Lightning struck a house in Minocqua, setting it on fire and burning it to the ground.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GRB wrote it up.
A line of thunderstorms tracked across north-central Wisconsin during the early morning hours. Lightning struck a house in Minocqua, setting it on fire and burning it to the ground.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Green Bay, WI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 25, 9:04 PM CST, 2 hours 26 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 1004 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2020 Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance .UPDATE... Issued at 903 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2020 Despite CAPE of 1500 of 2000 j/kg over north central and central WI, the overall severe threat appears fairly low due to weak deep layer shear (around 20 kts), high wet bulb zero heights of 14-15K feet, and unimpressive DCAPE values of 400-600 j/kg. Focus for the overnight period will be heavy rainfall, as PWATs increase to greater than 2 inches and a 35 to 40 kt low-level jet develops. The atmosphere will be primed for very high rainfall rates, with local amounts of 1 to 2 inches expected over the western cwa. Fortunately, Flash Flood Guidance values are generally 2 inches or higher, so the main concern will likely be urban flooding. && .SHORT TERM...Tonight and Sunday Issued at 333 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2020 Very warm and sticky afternoon ongoing across the area with a mix of daytime cu and mid-upper level clouds drifting across the area. Temps were climbing into the mid 80s to around 90 with dewpoints in the lower and middle 70s...producing heat index readings in the 90s to near 100. For tonight...a very warm and muggy night is in store with temps slowly dropping into the lower and middle 70s with dewpoints only a couple degrees cooler. Chances for showers and storms will increase in the late afternoon and evening hours, as a eastward advancing shortwave/MCV across far eastern MN and western WI will push across the area. Highest chances will be across central and northern WI where best instability (CAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg) and moisture exist. Weak shear, generally under 20 kts, will limit overall organization, but cannot rule out a severe storm, mainly through late evening. Instability will wane through the evening hours into tonight, but low level jet could touch off additional activity overnight. PWATs climbing above 2 inches will lead to a flooding threat with any training storms. With the elevated dewpoints, patchy fog cannot be ruled out, however the expected clouds and the surface wind of 5-15 mph should limit the fog potential. No lake fog to speak up yet, but will remain possible as dewpoints creep up overnight into Sunday. For Sunday...ongoing showers and storms are possible to start the day across portions of the area, but models not in great agreement on where that will be or if it will clear out by sunrise. There should be a lengthy lull in the activity during the morning, then another round of storms is expected as an upper trough swings into the western Great Lakes and a shortwave and cold front push in from the west. Lots of clouds are expected through the day which will limit the destabilization process, but still expecting 1000 to 2000 J/kg of CAPE by early afternoon. Bulk shear will be a little better, but only in the 25-35 kt range. The threat for organized severe weather looks low, but expected instability and shear supports the chance for a severe storm. If we do get more sunshine than expected, the severe threat will increase. Flooding will again be a threat with PWATs remaining above 2 inches ahead of the front. .LONG TERM...Sunday Night Through Saturday Issued at 333 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2020 Western Great Lakes will be dominated by upper-level trough through much of the work week as increasing shortwave ridging builds across the northern Rockies into west-central Canada. This will keep the western Great Lakes region within a northwesterly flow regime into next weekend. Forecast challenges,beyond Sunday night, will revolve around weak shortwave disturbances dropping southeast across the area especially in the first half of the upcoming work week. First order of business is the timing of the frontal boundary across the forecast area Sunday evening and attendant shower and thunderstorm activity. Latest HREF, and short-term deterministic guidance suggest the frontal boundary will be a bit slower progressing across the area Sunday night. A look at some of the NAM forecast soundings ahead of the boundary Sunday evening across the Fox Valley suggest a fair amount in instability with MLCAPEs in the 1300 to 1500 J/kg range. Low-level forcing associated with the approaching frontal boundary, in concert with large-scale ascent near RRQ of upper-level jet maximum suggest convective activity may linger a bit later into the evening than previous forecast, thus adjusted Pops accordingly, especially over the northern portion of the forecast area. Severe weather potential Sunday evening is a bit more dubious with HREF CAM members suggesting a variety of solutions on intensity and timing. Forecast soundings indicate long skinny CAPE profiles with rather week mid-level winds throughout the depth of the troposphere above 850 mb. Best guess is that any marginally severe storms will probably be focused just south of the forecast area Sunday evening. However, still a threat for locally heavy rainfall, given abnormally high PWs and long-skinny CAPEs suggesting very good precipitation efficiency. With modestly strong low-level winds below 850 mb of 30 kts and weaker winds aloft, some potential for SW-NE training of echoes. Thus it appears locally heavy rainfall would be the primary impact especially south of Highway 29 before midnight. Frontal boundary should gradually drift southeast out of the forecast area by 12Z Monday, followed by a gradual scouring of low-level moisture during the day. Subsidence and deeper mixing later monday afternoon will favor somewhat gusty northwesterly winds as well. Could also be a few diurnally-driven light showers or sprinkles across the north Monday afternoon given steeper lapse rates with cooler air aloft. Another weak shortwave impulse and associated surface trough, implied by some of the medium range guidance, may impact the area during peak heating on Tuesday afternoon as well. The remainder of the work week looks to be generally dry with northwesterly flow. Temperatures are expected to be seasonal with highs near 80 and lows 55 to 60. Stayed close to national blend in this regard. && .AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 951 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2020 Precipitation trends/timing, potential for low clouds later tonight into Sunday morning, and LLWS will be the main aviation concerns for this TAF period. Scattered showers and thunderstorms were impacting north central WI late this evening, but the most impactful convection was occurring over southern MN, where flooding rains were ongoing. A 35 to 40 knot low-level jet is still expected to impact the western TAF sites overnight, so will keep LLWS and TEMPO groups for thunderstorms there. As the convection wanes overnight into Sunday morning, suspect that some IFR/MVFR stratus will develop, especially where heavier rainfall has occurred. Confidence remains low concerning overall precipitation trends and timing, but will hedge bets on a lull from mid-morning through early afternoon. This may allow the atmosphere to recharge, and set the stage for some storms to impact mainly central and east central WI during the late afternoon and early evening. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Beach Hazards Statement until 4 AM CDT Sunday for WIZ022. && UPDATE.........Kieckbusch SHORT TERM.....Bersch LONG TERM......ESB AVIATION.......Kieckbusch
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Green Bay WI 313 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2020 WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-262015- Vilas-Oneida-Forest-Florence-Northern Marinette County-Lincoln- Langlade-Menominee-Northern Oconto County-Door-Marathon-Shawano- Wood-Portage-Waupaca-Outagamie-Brown-Kewaunee-Waushara-Winnebago- Calumet-Manitowoc-Southern Marinette County- Southern Oconto County- 313 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2020 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north-central and northeast Wisconsin. .DAY ONE...Tonight Isolated to scatterd thunderstorms are expected. A few strong to marginally severe storms are possible, especially across north- central and central Wisconsin this evening. The strongest storms could produce damaging winds and large hail. Heavy rainfall is also possible, which could produce localized flooding. Gusty south winds will bring an increased risk for rip currents in Door County. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Saturday Thunderstorms are expected at times on Sunday. A few strong or severe storms are possible, with the main threat being damaging winds. Very heavy rainfall will also be possible, which could lead to localized flooding. Very warm temperatures and oppressively humid conditions may lead to an increased risk of heat related illnesses on Sunday as heat indices push into the middle to upper 90s. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed this evening and again on Sunday. LMZ521-522-541>543-262015- The Bay of Green Bay south of a line from Cedar River MI to Rock Island Passage-Lake Michigan from Washington Island to Sheboygan- 313 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2020 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Lake Michigan and the waters of Green Bay. .DAY ONE...Tonight Gusty south winds and high waves will produce conditions hazardous to small craft across the Lake Michigan nearshore waters north of Two Rivers. Thunderstorms are possible late tonight. Strong winds and lightning could pose a hazard to boaters. Dense marine fog could also form at times on Lake Michigan, as moist air flows over the cooler lake waters. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Saturday Thunderstorms are possible at times Sunday and Sunday night. Strong winds and lightning could pose a hazard to boaters. Dense marine fog could also form at times on Lake Michigan Sunday. Bersch/ESB
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Green Bay WI 853 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2020 WIZ010-018-260300- Oneida WI-Lincoln WI- 853 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2020 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LINCOLN AND WESTERN ONEIDA COUNTIES UNTIL 1000 PM CDT... At 852 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along a line extending from near Willow Lake to near Medford. Movement was northeast at 35 mph. Winds in excess of 40 mph and heavy downpours will be possible with these storms. Locations impacted include... Rhinelander, Merrill, Tomahawk, Newbold, Harrison, Woodboro, Gilbert, Council Grounds State Park, Tripoli and Birch Trails Girl Scout Camp. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building. && LAT...LON 4580 9004 4589 8939 4513 8961 4512 9004 TIME...MOT...LOC 0152Z 244DEG 32KT 4568 9007 4513 9023 MPC
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
959 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2020
WIZ005-010-011-018-019-260400-
Langlade WI-Vilas WI-Oneida WI-Forest WI-Lincoln WI-
959 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2020
...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN...
At 956 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking clusters of thunderstorms
near Lake Tomahawk to 20 miles west of Merrill. Movement was east
at 25 mph.
Winds in excess of 30 mph pockets of heavy rainfall will be possible
with these storms.
Locations impacted include...
Antigo, Rhinelander, Crandon, Eagle River, Merrill, Lac Du Flambeau,
Tomahawk, Newbold, Harrison and Phelps.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 4616 8921 4610 8900 4602 8882 4602 8875
4513 8900 4512 9005 4598 9005 4598 8993
4630 8993
TIME...MOT...LOC 0256Z 262DEG 21KT 4584 8942 4528 8959
MPCThe Marquette radar (KMQT), 196 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 05:30 UTC.
1 lightning. Local standard time, as filed.
Lightning struck a house on Nixon Road in Minocqua during the early morning hours, causing it to burn to the ground.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Wisconsin in 2020Every state in 2020This day in weather historyWarnings in Wisconsin, July 2020
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 897420.