Damaging Winds in West Virginia, July 10, 2020

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
300 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical Storm Fay moves to make landfall in New England, while
troughing and a frontal system bring storms our way this weekend.  A
series of shortwaves will trigger storms mostly today and Sunday,
before a large ridge begins to build in early next week. This ridge
will bring a warm, stable airmass to the area, so rain chances will
be low next week. Temperatures will be above normal most of next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT Friday...

Troughing and lowering heights make their way into the area from the
west to replace tropical Storm Fay as it exits the Mid-Atlantic this
afternoon and moves over New England. As a result, a few storms have
already begun to form in northern NC, and some showers as well along
the mountains in SE WV. The main line of storms is a bit further
west, making its way through eastern KY and central WV, and should
reach far SW VA in the next hour or so. Storm coverage will increase
as the afternoon carries on, concentrating along and west of the
Blue Ridge. CAPE values in the 1000-1500 J/kg range could allow a
couple storms to break into severe limits. Later this evening,
showers and storms may bleed into the Piedmont, helped along by
potential outflow from Blue Ridge storms and an approaching cold
front.

As the trough settles overhead for this weekend, a few shortwaves
will make their away around the bend and bring rounds of showers and
storms. Saturday seems poised to be the calmest this weekend, as
timing-wise, it sits in a lull between the cold front and the
shortwave coming for Sunday.

Today and tomorrow will be in the 90s east of the Blue Ridge, and
mid 80s west, with afternoon storms keeping things a tad cooler
today.  Lows will be regulated by cloud cover tonight, only getting
into the upper 60s west, low 70s east. &&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 PM EDT Friday...

Late Saturday night, winds will shift more south-southwesterly as
high pressure shifts east, allowing deeper moisture to return to the
area.

Next, will be keeping an eye on an upper level disturbance that will
swing across the lower Great Lakes on Sunday afternoon/evening that
will pull a weak cold front across the central Appalachians.
Overall, the threat of severe storms is low, but given a day of
strong heating before convection arrives, believe enough instability
will be present that a couple of storms will intensify to severe
levels for brief periods of time, capable of producing mainly
locally damaging winds. This activity is expected to be hit-and-
miss, with the greatest coverage of rainfall mainly over the
mountains, weakening as it enters the Piedmont during late Sunday
evening.

High pressure will build in behind the cold front early Monday,
resulting in drier conditions and a steady northwesterly downslope
wind flow. Though can't rule out an isolated shower or two along the
higher ridges of southeast West Virginia through the Highlands of
North Carolina, do not see the instability present to support more
than that, and Monday will be dry overall.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Friday...

High pressure will remain in control on Tuesday, resulting in only
isolated showers, if anything at all, under mostly sunny skies. Any
convection will be brief and generally confined to the higher
mountain ridges.

Temperatures will increase for Wednesday into the end of the
workweek as upper level ridging, currently across the Southwest,
broadens eastward to cover the southern half of the nation. As such,
expect daytime highs reaching into the mid 90s across the Piedmont
and into the upper 80s and low 90s across the mountains. Combine
that with increasing moisture on Thursday and Friday, and may see
heat index values rise into the 100F to 105F range, perhaps higher
in spots, across the Piedmont.

As for rainfall, the highest chances will remain closer to the Ohio
River where the northern edge of the upper ridge will be located.
That stated, may see some thunderstorm activity push southward to
the Interstate 64 corridor both Thursday and Friday evening if any
weaknesses in the ridge develop. Given the strong heating, storms
that do enter our area from the north have the potential to be
strong, which is something we will monitor as the week
progresses.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Friday...

Cigs are pretty high this afternoon, but with scattered storms on
the docket, intermittent MVFR and IFR conditions are possible into
the evening. With cool, moist, post-rainfall air stabilizing the
atmosphere, cigs will get low overnight west of the Blue Ridge and
into Saturday morning, maybe even getting LIFR at times. Visibility
could be reduced as well by patchy morning fog, especially in
locales that received a good dose of rainfall this afternoon and
evening. Once day breaks on Saturday, both vsbys and cigs should
start coming up with a bit of a drier day on Saturday, making for
largely VFR conditions.

Winds will be unexciting, with prevailing weak northwesterly flow
this afternoon becoming light and variable overnight and into
Saturday.
/Confidence in Forecast Parameters/
Ceilings - Moderate,
Visibilities - Moderate
Wind - High

Extended Aviation Discussion...

The pre-frontal trough will move east of the area Saturday with
an area of subsidence expected to drift across the region.
Minimal convection and mostly VFR conditions are expected
Saturday outside of early morning fog/low clouds. A frontal
system and deepening upper trough will move into the area from
the northwest Sunday triggering scattered showers and thunderstorms
ahead of it. Convection should be fairly active by afternoon. As
an upper ridge builds east, much of the extended period is
looking to be VFR outside of patchy morning fog and isolated
afternoon/evening showers/thunderstorms.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...VFJ
NEAR TERM...VFJ
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...RAB/VFJ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
251 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>034-043-WVZ042>044-507-
508-111900-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Watauga-Wilkes-
Yadkin-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Grayson-
Carroll-Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-
Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Henry-Mercer-Summers-Monroe-
Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier-
251 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, south central Virginia, southwest
Virginia, west central Virginia and southeast West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Widely scattered storms will pass across the mountains this evening.
A few of these storms may become severe for brief periods of time,
producing quarter-sized hail and damaging wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected again Sunday afternoon and
evening. A few storms could become severe and produce damaging
winds. Widespread hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

VAZ035-044>047-058-059-111900-
Amherst-Pittsylvania-Campbell-Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-
Charlotte-
251 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Virginia and south
central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Isolated storms this evening could become marginally severe,
producing quarter-sized hail and damaging wind gusts. Widespread
hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected again Sunday afternoon and
evening. A few storms could become severe and produce damaging
winds.

Temperatures will become excessively warm during the second half of
next week. Heat index values at some locations may rise into the 105F
to 109F range on both Thursday and Friday afternoons.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
454 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

VAZ024-035-102130-
Amherst-Rockbridge-
454 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN ROCKBRIDGE AND
NORTHWESTERN AMHERST COUNTIES...THE CITY OF BUENA VISTA AND THE CITY
OF LEXINGTON...

At 453 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Collierstown,
moving east at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Lexington...
Buena Vista...
Glasgow...
Collierstown...
Cornwall...
Alto...
and Natural Bridge.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3780 7914 3757 7937 3759 7938 3761 7940
      3760 7943 3762 7944 3760 7946 3758 7945
      3757 7943 3755 7946 3766 7968 3769 7967
      3770 7968 3773 7969 3786 7949
TIME...MOT...LOC 2053Z 289DEG 14KT 3773 7953

BMG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
506 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

WVZ043-044-507-508-102130-
Western Greenbrier-Summers-Eastern Greenbrier-Monroe-
506 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN
GREENBRIER...NORTHEASTERN SUMMERS AND NORTHWESTERN MONROE COUNTIES...

At 506 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Glenray, or
near Alderson, moving east at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Ronceverte...
Alderson...
Wolfcreek...
Asbury...
Pickaway...
Fairlea...
and Glenray.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3761 8077 3777 8082 3790 8051 3763 8040
TIME...MOT...LOC 2106Z 252DEG 15KT 3770 8072

BMG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
520 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

NCZ001-VAZ015-102145-
Ashe-Grayson-
520 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN ASHE AND
SOUTHWESTERN GRAYSON COUNTIES...

At 520 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Flatwood, or
near Whitetop, moving east at 10 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Jefferson...
Lansing...
Whitetop...
Nella...
Rugby...
Flatwood...
and Clifton.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3647 8170 3651 8170 3653 8171 3656 8169
      3657 8169 3657 8168 3659 8168 3661 8165
      3662 8162 3663 8160 3665 8142 3642 8144
      3645 8171 3646 8171
TIME...MOT...LOC 2120Z 272DEG 7KT 3653 8162

BMG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
524 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

NCZ018-102200-
Watauga-
524 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WATAUGA COUNTY...

At 524 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Sugar Grove,
moving east at 10 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Boone...
Blowing Rock...
Beech Mountain...
Foscoe...
Sugar Grove...
Blowing Rock In Caldwell County...
and Beech Mountain In Avery County.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3626 8189 3628 8191 3631 8190 3636 8180
      3634 8177 3634 8171 3635 8172 3638 8173
      3638 8169 3635 8164 3632 8161 3612 8163
      3611 8181 3616 8183 3619 8186 3619 8188
      3621 8191 3623 8191
TIME...MOT...LOC 2124Z 271DEG 9KT 3628 8181

BMG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
528 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

VAZ016-017-032-102215-
Patrick-Floyd-Carroll-
528 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN
FLOYD...NORTHEASTERN CARROLL AND CENTRAL PATRICK COUNTIES...

At 528 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Dugspur, or
near Hillsville, moving east at 10 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Hillsville...
Willis...
Indian Valley...
Fancy Gap...
Dugspur...
Laurel Fork...
and Meadows Of Dan.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3670 8076 3687 8071 3695 8041 3664 8041
TIME...MOT...LOC 2128Z 271DEG 9KT 3678 8062

BMG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
533 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

NCZ003-019-020-102215-
Yadkin-Surry-Wilkes-
533 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL SURRY...EAST
CENTRAL WILKES AND NORTHWESTERN YADKIN COUNTIES...

At 532 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Swancreek, or
over Jonesville, moving east at 10 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Elkin...
Yadkinville...
Jonesville...
Boonville...
Ronda...
Nebo...
and Crutchfield.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3614 8094 3629 8094 3632 8060 3610 8061
TIME...MOT...LOC 2132Z 271DEG 9KT 3620 8086

BMG