Heavy Snow and Hail in West Virginia, February 26 to 27, 2020

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
234 PM EST Wed Feb 26 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong storm system crosses tonight with rain changing to snow.
Heavy snow expected across ridges of northern WV mountains.
Another disturbance brings more snow late-week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 230 PM Wednesday...

A strong cold front is currently working its way into the mid Ohio
River Valley. It will continue marching eastward as a surface low
strengthens as it lifts through western PA this evening. Meanwhile,
an upper trough approaches from the west, becoming negatively tilted
as it passes overhead tonight. This will drive very strong mid level
forcing late this evening into tonight, especially across the WV
mountains. A secondary upper level shortwave trough crosses on
Thursday. With all that said, have a fairly complex forecast into
tomorrow and relied heavily on a blend of the NAMNest and WRFNMM.

Along and behind the front, expecting a period of rain, which is
already ongoing along and west of the Ohio River. Getting some
sunshine across the mountains, which combined with the forcing
mentioned above leads to including a thunder mention across the
central and northern WV mountains this evening. This is also where
we could get some convective enhanced precipitation, with 0.5"-0.75"
of rain expected. Farther west amounts should be less than half an
inch.

Temperatures will quickly drop this evening, with the rain changing
over to snow. Have this occurring from 00Z to 03Z. At this point the
best forcing will be across the mountains, where snowfall rates
could top an inch an hour for several hours, especially along the
higher ridges of the northern mountains. The 12Z NAM sounding at EKN
shows the saturated layer extends up to about -30C during this time
with decent lapse rates and lift. The moisture thins out by 06Z,
which should slow down snowfall rates, but we start adding better
upslope to mix. A fetch of moisture coming off Lake Michigan will
keep the low level moisture in place, keeping snow showers going
through the day for the northern mountains. Across the lowlands,
the lighter snow overnight will taper off to flurries Thursday.

Increased snowfall amounts across the mountains enough to warrant a
winter storm warning for the higher ridges of Pocahontas, Randolph
and Webster counties. Thinking we will hit warning criteria from the
overnight synoptic snow, but felt the upslope will be decent enough
to not end the warning too early. Also expanded the advisory another
tier of counties west, although this is more marginal as low level
and ground temps could hamper snow accumulation more here.

Winds will pick up overnight with gusts of up to 20kts across the
lowlands, and approaching 40kts for the higher ridges. Just below
advisory criteria there, but have included blowing snow mention
across the mountain counties. Will also mention isolated power
outage potential in HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 220 PM Wednesday...

Weak low level WAA amid a mixed boundary layer and lingering
stratus will keep temperatures from falling too much Thursday
night. A weak system embedded within the mean longwave trof
pivots into the area Friday as a surface front drops south.
Models maintain some light QPF with this, especially across the
southern half of the CWA. Soundings indicate that despite some
warming at the surface Friday, much of this would fall as
snow...especially on the hilltops in the lowlands and of course
the mountains. There may be some minor accumulations, primarily
confined to the aforementioned areas. Temperatures were nudged
toward the cold side of the model guidance during the day.

Any mix or light rain would switch to snow before ending in the
Lowlands Friday evening. CAA sends surface temperatures below
freezing as partial clearing tries to take hold.

Low level thermal trof lingers over the area Saturday so while
the morning may start with some sunshine, I expect stratocu to
quickly develop as the day progresses with temperatures
remaining well below normal.

Upper heights build Saturday night with WAA creating for a
ridge/valley split in temperatures overnight as the sky clears.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 230 PM Wednesday...

The pattern takes a turn toward a warm and wet one early next
week with moist southwest flow taking hold as a series of waves
of low pressure ride along a stalling boundary just to our west.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1255 PM Wednesday...

Approaching storm system will bring deteriorating flight
conditions through the remainder of the day. Ceilings should
gradually drop into MVFR and then IFR by this evening at most
sites. MVFR to IFR visibilities also expected as rain moves in
from the west. Did not include any thunder mention, but cannot
rule a rumble or two across the far east late this afternoon or
this evening. Temperatures drop quickly after 00Z, so expecting
a changeover to snow, with periods of IFR overnight. Most
prolonged, widespread IFR expected across the mountains.
Elsewhere, went with PROB30 IFR coding with some uncertainty on
timing and intensity of snow. Conditions will gradually improve
from west to east on Thursday, with lingering upslope snow
showers across the northern mountains.

Winds will increase this evening into tonight, with gusts of
15-25kts out of the west to northwest lingering through much of
Thursday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of category changes may vary. May
need an amendment to include thunder across the east.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    M    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    L    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    H    M    M    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    M    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
Lingering mountain IFR possible in upslope snow showers into
Thursday night. IFR possible in snow Friday into Friday night
across south and east.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST
     Thursday for WVZ525.
     Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST
     Thursday for WVZ522-523-526.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to noon EST
     Thursday for WVZ039-040-516>521.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MZ/30
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...MZ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston WV
231 PM EST Wed Feb 26 2020

WVZ039-040-516>521-271945-
Upshur-Barbour-Southeast Raleigh-Northwest Fayette-Southeast Fayette-
Northwest Nicholas-Southeast Nicholas-Northwest Webster-
231 PM EST Wed Feb 26 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON
EST THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast West
Virginia, northern West Virginia and southeast West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

WVZ522-523-526-271945-
Southeast Webster-Northwest Pocahontas-Southeast Randolph-
231 PM EST Wed Feb 26 2020

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast West
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

WVZ525-271945-
Northwest Randolph-
231 PM EST Wed Feb 26 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM
EST THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast West
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>034-515-524-271945-
Greenup-Carter-Boyd-Lawrence KY-Perry-Morgan-Athens-Washington-
Jackson OH-Vinton-Meigs-Gallia-Lawrence OH-Dickenson-Buchanan-Wayne-
Cabell-Mason-Jackson WV-Wood-Pleasants-Tyler-Lincoln-Putnam-Kanawha-
Roane-Wirt-Calhoun-Ritchie-Doddridge-Mingo-Logan-Boone-Clay-Braxton-
Gilmer-Lewis-Harrison-Taylor-McDowell-Wyoming-Northwest Raleigh-
Southeast Pocahontas-
231 PM EST Wed Feb 26 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky, southeast
Ohio, southwest Virginia and much of West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Rain this afternoon will quickly switch to snow this evening. An inch
or less of accumulation may occur tonight on primarily grassy and
elevated surfaces. Slightly higher amounts may occur across southwest
Virginia and southern and southeastern West Virginia.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

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