A strong cold front moved into West Texas. High pressure and cold air behind the cold front caused strong winds to develop in the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.
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The episode as NWS MAF wrote it up.
A strong cold front moved into West Texas. High pressure and cold air behind the cold front caused strong winds to develop in the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Midland/Odessa, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 27, 5:41 PM CST, 5 hours 19 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
641 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2020
.DISCUSSION...
&&
.AVIATION...
For now calling for a VFR forecast as not getting the blowing dust
as previously forecasted. Do have some wrap around low clouds in
the Panhandle that may try to move down into the area this
evening or overnight. Defining the frontal boundary challenging
as have multiple boundaries on radar. Believe a prefrontal trough
has moved through most of the Permian Basin with the actual front
lagging it somewhat. As of 23:40z put the front as through Big
Spring extending NW between Andrews and Seminole and pushing
south.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 245 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2020/
DISCUSSION...
Not much change to the going forecast. WV imagery shows the upper
trough has crossed the MS Rvr, allowing the west coast ridge to nose
farther into West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. At 18Z, KMAF had
already scored 100F as downslope winds and compressional warming
kicked in. Critical RH was noted, mainly over SE NM, resulting in
elevated fire danger. See Fire Wx Discussion below.
This all comes to an end in a few hours as a strong cold front plows
thru the region. Latest mesoanalysis shows the front in the Texas
Panhandle, w/a prefrontal trough veering sfc flow to the NW down
here. Latest NAM12 has slowed the front a little, w/buffer
soundings now pegging fropa at KMAF at around 02Z. Chances of BLDU
continue to look excellent w/fropa, as well as isolated t-storms
along the front as it hits the higher terrain down south. In
additions to the high wind warning for gap winds thru KGDP w/fropa,
we've put much of the HSA in a wind advisory thru 18Z Monday.
Temps Monday afternoon still look to top out in the upper 60s/lwr
70s most locations, w/lows Monday night mainly in the 40s. The
region then falls into a pattern of dry NW flow aloft as an upper
ridge develops along the west coast. Temps rebound to above-normal
by Wed afternoon, and remain there thru the extended. A secondary
dry front is still on tap Thu night.
FIRE WEATHER...
Above normal temperatures have ushered in critically low RH's
combined with gusty 20 ft winds producing elevated fire weather
concerns across southeast New Mexico and parts of West Texas. A
Fire Danger Statement has been issued for all of southeast New
Mexico, western Permian Basin, Guadalupe and Davis Mountains. ERCs
values are above normal levels area wide based on a prolonged
drought. Cold front is set to roll in later tonight bringing a
wind shift and windy conditions accompanied by cooler temps.
Elevated fire weather conditions will diminish Monday because of
cooler temps, higher RH's and lighter winds.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring 56 73 46 80 / 0 0 0 0
Carlsbad 57 73 45 79 / 0 0 0 0
Dryden 61 77 53 82 / 10 10 0 0
Fort Stockton 56 72 47 78 / 20 0 0 0
Guadalupe Pass 51 64 46 72 / 10 0 0 0
Hobbs 52 71 43 77 / 0 0 0 0
Marfa 48 67 40 75 / 10 0 0 0
Midland Intl Airport 56 73 46 80 / 0 0 0 0
Odessa 56 73 46 79 / 0 0 0 0
Wink 58 74 46 79 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Wind Advisory until 6 AM MDT Monday for Central Lea County-Eddy
County Plains-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.
TX...Wind Advisory from 1 AM to noon CDT Monday for Chisos Basin-
Eastern Culberson County-Terrell-Van Horn and Highway 54
Corridor.
Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for Andrews-Borden-Davis
Mountains-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Howard-Loving-
Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Reagan-Reeves County Plains-Scurry-
Winkler.
High Wind Warning from 10 PM this evening to 11 AM MDT Monday
for Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.
&&Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 226 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2020 NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082- 270>282-281930- Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains- Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines- Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler- Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell- Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains- Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County- Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains- Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin- Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County- 226 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2020 /126 PM MDT Sun Sep 27 2020/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast New Mexico, southwest Texas, and western Texas. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight Dry and breezy conditions in western portions of the forecast area will yield elevated to near critical fire weather this afternoon and evening. A cold front will bring strong, gusty winds through the region late tonight. Wind Advisory has been issued for the Permian Basin Trans Pecos, southeast New Mexico and Davis Mountains. Blowing dust may temporarily reduce visibility. A High Wind Warning is in effect for Guadalupe Pass and wind speeds could approach advisory levels across the plains. Blowing dust may temporarily reduce visibility. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday Wind Advisory is in effect for the Chisos Mountains, Culberson, and Terrel counties. Blowing dust may temporarily reduce visibility. A High Wind Warning is in effect for Guadalupe Pass through Monday morning. Blowing dust may temporarily reduce visibility. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Please relay any information about observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state and CDC guidelines. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in Midland, can be found on the internet at... https://weather.gov/midland
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2020Every state in 2020This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, September 2020
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 920563.