Hail in Texas, May 21, 2020

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
338 PM CDT Thu May 21 2020

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Thu May 21 2020

The showers/thunderstorms that existed over western Oklahoma and
western north Texas have since diminished. As seen in the radar
and satellite loops, an MCV has lifted northeast across Oklahoma
today. As of 19Z, a surface low was centered near the CO/KS border
with a dryline extending southward across the OK and TX
panhandles. Trends in the CAMS suggest a later arrival of a
shower/thunderstorm complex into our area, which is now forecast
to enter NW Oklahoma after 06Z Friday. A few severe storms capable
of producing up to golf ball size hail and damaging wind gusts
are possible across far NW Oklahoma tonight.

The showers/thunderstorms are forecast to linger into tomorrow
morning as the upper wave progresses east. For tomorrow
afternoon/evening, latest thinking is thunderstorms may develop
and intensify along an outflow boundary across southern Oklahoma.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 338 PM CDT Thu May 21 2020

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue across
southeast/south central Oklahoma and north Texas. These
thunderstorms may grow upscale into another MCS with a threat for
severe weather through the overnight hours.

For Saturday, most locations will likely remain dry. Isolated
thunderstorms may develop along the dryline during the late
afternoon and could move eastward into western Oklahoma in the
evening. Forecast soundings indicate a strong cap (+17 C at ~770
mb), so coverage of storms should be isolated at best. In
addition, mid-level heights are progged to rise during the evening
hours (which would also temper the risk of convection).

For Sunday, the eastward progression of the longwave trough has
slowed down. Therefore, opted to decrease the probabilities of
showers/storms across western/central Oklahoma during the daytime.
There are indications a subtle wave may lift across
southeast/eastern Oklahoma, so maintained higher probabilities in
this area. With respect to the trough, thunderstorms may initially
develop along the dryline in the Texas/Oklahoma panhandles late
afternoon. Widespread showers and thunderstorms would be delayed
to Sunday night into early Monday as synoptic-scale ascent spreads
eastward.

For Monday and beyond, the forecast confidence remains low as
there remains high uncertainty on the evolution of the shortwave
trough. Model consensus continues to indicate the shortwave trough
will close-off, but the location is still uncertain. The 21/12Z
guidance indicates the low may close off to the west (New Mexico
or the Oklahoma/Texas panhandles). This will keep us in a
favorable pattern for at least a moderate chance of showers/storms
with deep, southerly flow through the middle part of the week.
Heavy rainfall/flooding will become a hazard if this occurs.

Mahale

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Thu May 21 2020

Showers/thunderstorms are possible late this evening near KWWR
with storms progressing southeast overnight into the early morning
hours. Confidence is low on timing, however, as the models have
trended slower with the progression of the precipitation. Winds
are forecast to shift to the north over KWWR, KCSM, KPNC after 12Z
Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  66  85  67  84 /  40  50  20  10
Hobart OK         65  89  67  88 /  30  10  20  10
Wichita Falls TX  68  91  67  87 /  20  40  40  10
Gage OK           58  85  63  93 /  60  10   0  10
Ponca City OK     64  80  65  85 /  70  70  20  10
Durant OK         66  85  69  84 /  30  40  50  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...01

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
352 PM CDT Thu May 21 2020

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-222100-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
352 PM CDT Thu May 21 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
There is a risk of severe thunderstorms tonight. The greatest
risk of severe storms will be across northern Oklahoma.

Thunderstorms moving southeast from the High Plains are expected
to move into northwest Oklahoma later this evening into the
overnight. Hail up to the size up golf balls and wind gusts up to
75 mph are the primary hazards. Heavy rainfall may also lead to
localized flooding.

Storms are expected to continue into the early morning, with a
decreasing risk of severe weather as the storms move
southeastward.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...
Storm spotter groups and emergency management personnel across
northwest Oklahoma should prepare for severe weather operations
tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

.Thunderstorms...
Thunderstorms are expected to continue off and on through next
Wednesday. On Friday, a Slight Risk of severe storms thunderstorms
covers southeast and south central Oklahoma and adjacent parts of
north Texas. Severe storms will be most likely in the afternoon
and evening. A Marginal Risk covers the area west of Enid to
Lawton to Seymour Texas on Saturday, mainly during the evening.
Severe thunderstorms will also be possible on Sunday, but details
are still uncertain regarding timing and location.

.Heavy rain...
Heavy rainfall is possible, particularly on Friday, and again
Sunday night into Monday. Heavy rainfall may lead to flooding.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

Mahale