A large upper level low over the Tennessee Valley slowly lifted northward and into the Ohio Valley. This allowed for copious amounts of moisture and rain to affect central North Carolina.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS RAH wrote it up.
A large upper level low over the Tennessee Valley slowly lifted northward and into the Ohio Valley. This allowed for copious amounts of moisture and rain to affect central North Carolina. This resulted in several reports of flash flooding across western portions of central North Carolina, that lingered into the the morning of May 22nd. Several storms became strong to severe during the afternoon with day time heating, producing wind damage and a brief tornado in Hoke County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Raleigh, NC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 21, 4:35 AM EST, 25 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Raleigh NC 535 AM EDT Thu May 21 2020 .SYNOPSIS... A large upper-level low pressure will linger over the Tennessee Valley through today. The low will then lift slowly north into the Ohio Valley starting late tonight and Friday before finally moving east across the Mid-Atlantic states Friday night and early Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 400 AM Thursday... ...Moderate/Heavy Rain and Flooding Threat continues through the Evening... ...There is also a risk for a few strong to severe storms this afternoon across southern NC... The cut-off low over the TN Valley will drift slowly north over the southern OH Valley by tonight. The NW to SE band of light to moderate rain showers anchored within the plume of anomalously high Atlantic moisture(PWATs 1.5-1.8") currently centered over central NC will gradually pivot north through the early afternoon. Just as this band begins to lift north of the area, a new area of convection will likely develop within a northward expanding warm sector and associated moderate destablization across southern portions of the forecast area. This convective will move SW to NE through the area through the remainder of the afternoon and evening hours before finally shifting NE of the area overnight. With the ground already saturated and area creeks and rivers running high from the 2 to 4 inches of rainfall we've seen over the past 48- 72 hours, high rainfall rates of .75-1.0"/hour likely to occur with this cluster of storms will result in an elevated threat for flash flooding through the evening. Thus, no changes are planned to the current Flash Flood Watch. In addition to the heavy rain and flooding threat, moderate instability of 1000-2000 J/kg of SBCAPE and sufficient shear of 20 to 30kts will result in a threat for a few strong to severe storms across the southern portions of the forecast area. Additionally, local backing of winds owing to the potential development of a meso- low along the frontal zone bisecting the area could lead to isolated supercells capable of producing of producing a weak tornado. Highs today will feature a sharp NW to SE gradient across the area, ranging from mid 60s NW in the heart of damming airmass to near 80s within the expected warm sector in place over southern portions of the forecast area. Lows tonight ranging from near 60 NW to mid/upper 60s SE. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 445 AM Thursday... Models are in fairly good agreement that Friday morning will be relatively dry, as the upper low begins to weaken and move north away from the region. However, POPs increase once again Friday afternoon into Friday night, as yet another upper shortwave rotates around the base of the low. The best chance of precipitation is across the northern Piedmont, closest to the track of the shortwave, where there are likely POPs. With 500-1500 J/kg of CAPE expected on Friday, along with southwesterly winds at 500 mb of 35-45 kts, an isolated strong or severe storm cannot be ruled out. Overall, however, precipitation coverage and amounts are not expected to be as high as in previous days. As the surface low and associated surface boundary move north of the area, warm southwesterly flow should result in highs on Friday much closer to normal (low to mid 80s). By late Friday night and early Saturday morning, any storm potential should diminish with loss of daytime heating, and the rain should start to move east of the area. Even though the heaviest precipitation will be over by Friday, river flooding will be a concern, as several points on the Cape Fear, Haw, and Yadkin Rivers are forecast to reach at least minor flood stage. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 510 AM Thursday... Both the GFS and ECMWF (along with their ensembles) are in better agreement in the track of the closed upper low, taking it east off the northern Mid-Atlantic coast on Saturday. While this means precipitation chances should decrease, some showers and a few storms will still be possible, with the best chance at this time appearing to be across southern zones. Highs will be low-80s north to upper- 80s south. Some river flooding could linger into Saturday, but in general most points should be starting to recede. From Sunday into early next week, the GFS and ECMWF continue to agree that an upper level ridge will set up over the Southeast US. However, the exact placement of the ridge is uncertain, with the GFS keeping it farther east, and thus showing potential for some precipitation in western zones as a plume of moisture wraps around the western side of the ridge. The ECMWF shows a drier solution for central NC as it keeps the ridge farther west. For now just have slight chance POPs in most places each day, with low chance POPs in the far western Piedmont. We should see a slight decreasing trend in temperatures through at least Monday, as model guidance shows the remnants of the closed low sitting offshore in the western Atlantic, resulting in cooler NE flow across the area. For Memorial Day, forecast highs are only mid-70s in the far NE to low 80s in the SW. Temperatures may start to warm slightly again for Tuesday and Wednesday. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 230 AM Thursday... 24 hour TAF period: Intermittent light rain/drizzle with widespread IFR conditions will continue through mid to late morning across all of central NC. East-northeasterly wind gusts of 15 to 20 kts will persist as well. Along with the intermittent rain showers through the afternoon and evening, a warm front lifting north into the area will bring the threat of thunderstorms to KRDU, KFAY and KRWI between 18z to 03z. Flight conditions should improve slightly at KFAY, with ceilings lifting to MVFR behind the warm front. Elsewhere, ceilings should remain IFR through the forecast period. Rain chances should finally start to decrease after 06z Fri, but flight conditions should remain sub-VFR due to low ceilings. Looking ahead: Another round of showers and storms and associated sub-VFR conditions are expected across the area Friday afternoon and Friday night as the upper low tracks east through the Mid-Atlantic region. Drier conditions return on Saturday and Saturday, although the potential for some diurnal convection will persist. -CBL && .HYDROLOGY... With some areas of the Piedmont already having received 2 to locally 4 inches of rain, and an additional 2-3 inches expected tonight and Thursday, moderate river flooding will be possible as water is routed downstream through the end of the week. Currently, moderate flooding is forecast on the Haw and Deep Rivers. Minor flooding is forecast in spots on the lower Cape Fear River. Additional updates coming as the conditions change. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch through Thursday evening for NCZ007-021>025- 038>042-073>078-083>086-088-089. && SYNOPSIS...CBL NEAR TERM...CBL SHORT TERM...Danco LONG TERM...Danco AVIATION...CBL HYDROLOGY...BLS
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Raleigh NC 501 AM EDT Thu May 21 2020 NCZ007-021>025-038>041-220915- Person-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-Orange-Durham-Davidson-Randolph- Chatham-Wake- 501 AM EDT Thu May 21 2020 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Flash Flood Watch. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. A few strong to severe storms are possible Friday afternoon and evening. The strongest storms will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts and some hail. Also, minor flooding along area creeks and rivers could persist through Friday night. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. NCZ042-073>078-083>086-088-089-220915- Johnston-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Wayne-Anson-Richmond- Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson- 501 AM EDT Thu May 21 2020 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Flash Flood Watch. In addition to a heavy rain and flooding threat, a few strong to severe storms are possible this afternoon and into the early evening. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary severe threat. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. A few strong to severe storms are possible Friday afternoon and evening. The strongest storms will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts and some hail. Also, minor flooding along area creeks and rivers could persist through Friday night. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. NCZ008>011-026>028-043-220915- Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Wilson- 501 AM EDT Thu May 21 2020 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Periods of moderate to heavy rain are expected late this afternoon and through the overnight hours. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches could result in some isolated flooding, especially in low-lying or poor drainage areas. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. A few strong to severe storms are possible Friday afternoon and evening. The strongest storms will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts and some hail. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
The Columbia radar (KCAE), 163 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 09:59 UTC.
5 flash flood, 3 flood, 1 tornado. Local standard time, as filed.
Approximately 50 roads across the county were reported flooded due to heavy rain, with at least 3 water rescues.
Hillford Road was impassable due to flash flooding.
Roads were closed due to flash flooding near Eastchester Drive.
Highway 218 was reported flooded in multiple locations, especially near Thanny Helms Road.
An EF-1 tornado with maximum wind speeds of 100 mph briefly touched down 5.5 miles northeast of Raeford in Hoke County, NC, on the southern edge of the Fort Bragg Military Reservation. Damage consisted of an area of snapped and uprooted pine trees about 200 yards wide at its maximum width. The overall length of the damage path was just under a quarter mile. The tree damage straddled Plank Road, with the worst of the damage just south of Plank Road. The tree debris and ground vegetation was lofted high enough to result in a well-defined tornado debris signature on national weather service doppler radar at the time the damage occurred.
Multiple water rescues were reported along Highway 218, near Polkton.
High water was reported over the bridge in the 4300 block of East Holly Grove Road.
High water from Muddy Creek was reported on Hampton Road.
High water was reported on several roads across the county.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Carolina in 2020Every state in 2020This day in weather historyThe tornado archive for North Carolina, 2020Warnings in North Carolina, May 2020
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 894483, 894479, 894480, 894487, 894446, 894489, 894494, 894585, 894586.