After 2 months of below average precipitation, portions of the northwest Texas Panhandle were running rainfall deficits of 2 to 4 inches below normal. In May, which is normally a one of the wetter months, only 10 to 25 percent of the normal rainfall occurred across much of the area.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS AMA wrote it up.
After 2 months of below average precipitation, portions of the northwest Texas Panhandle were running rainfall deficits of 2 to 4 inches below normal. In May, which is normally a one of the wetter months, only 10 to 25 percent of the normal rainfall occurred across much of the area. This led to drought, which originated in Kansas and the Oklahoma Panhandle, spreading south into the northwest Texas Panhandle.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Amarillo, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 18, 11:44 PM CST, 16 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1244 AM CDT Tue May 19 2020 .AVIATION... 06Z TAF Issuance...VFR conditions at DHT/GUY are expected through the morning hours before some broken MVFR ceilings appear between 11z to 18z and then return to VFR. AMA will likely remain VFR through the period. Some thunderstorms are possible at DHT tomorrow between 00z and 03z and AMA may see some thunderstorms around this time, but confidence was too low as to whether storms would make it that for east to include thunder at this time. Winds are expected to remain out of the east southeast through the period with winds around 5 to 15 knots. Rutt && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 941 PM CDT Mon May 18 2020/ UPDATE... The current forecast for tonight remains on track and no major changes are planned at this time. Adjustments were made to the pops for Tuesday evening and Wednesday afternoon and evening. For several model runs, there have been consistent signals that support at least a slight chance threat for showers and tstms across western and central sections Tuesday evening and Wednesday afternoon, then central and eastern zones Wednesday night. NBM pops during these time periods are a reasonable starting point and were utilized for this update. Also, 90 percent of the GEFS members support a threat of precipitation much further west than the current forecast has, and is based on the overall synoptic upper level pattern as well as the surface pattern featuring the dryline and associated convergence anchoring across the western zones during this time frame. Minor upper level shortwave trofs are progged to rotate newd out of the main wrn states upper level trof Tuesday night as well as late Wednesday afternoon and night. Updated pop and weather grids along with corresponding text products have been sent. 02 PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 240 PM CDT Mon May 18 2020/ SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday night... With the axis of the ridge over eastern New Mexico along with very light south to southeast winds and H850 temps of 26C to 29C being advected into the area, temperatures this afternoon have rebounded quickly with high temperatures still expected to range from the upper 80s in the northeast to mid 90s in the southwest TX Panhandle. Southeasterly flow has brought Td's this afternoon in the lower 50s all the way into the NW Panhandles. As the low level moisture interacts with the high terrain in NE NM, this could produce a shower or storm for the high terrain of NM with better lift and near a weak sfc boundary. If this does materialize, it will fall apart by the time it reaches the Panhandles with average CIN increasing quickly past 00Z Tuesday. Similar set up as we go into the day on Tuesday. Surface boundary and dryline will set up a bit further east into the western Panhandles. With a weak stalled front and clouds lingering Tuesday morning, especially across the north, high temperatures on Tuesday will range from the mid 80s in the northeast to mid 90s in the SW TX Panhandle. With clouds clearing out quickly in the southwest, and along a dryline set up, showers and thunderstorms could develop there Tuesday afternoon and evening. Using NBM blended guidance, effective shear around 20-30 kts along with a cap of decent capacity should limit thunderstorms development. Latest 12/00Z model and numerical guidance does weaken the cap slightly for Tuesday afternoon. With H500 temperatures warmer than -10C, it will be a challenge for thunderstorms to form tall updrafts. However, if storms break the cap, strong winds due to deep mixing within the vertical profile will be the main threat followed by a hail threat. Will monitor observations trends for Tuesday and see where the Td gradient sets up in southeast surface flow for the best chance for thunderstorms development. Just like today, blended model guidance with collab with neighbors does leave mentionable POPs out of forecast for Tuesday at this time due to low confidence. Meccariello LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday An upper ridge over the Panhandles Wednesday will weaken and shift east as an upper trough approaches from the west by Wednesday evening. A surface low and frontal boundary will track east out of the central and southern Rockies by Wednesday night and will likely trigger scattered convection mainly across the eastern portions of the Panhandles Wednesday night. As the surface low and frontal boundary continue to move slowly east across the forecast area Thursday into Thursday night, lingering convection will be possible across the eastern sections of the Panhandles. Otherwise, drier conditions expected Thursday into Friday. Another surface low over eastern portions of Colorado by late Saturday with a dryline tracking east out of the southern Rockies and into the western portions of the forecast area. An approaching shortwave trough from the west along with the dryline will bring chances for convection to much of the Panhandles by Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. A cold front will push south across the Panhandles late Saturday night through Sunday. Additional chances for convection possible Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. Schneider && .AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories... TX...None. OK...None. && 23/77
Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED National Weather Service Amarillo TX 920 PM CDT Mon May 18 2020 OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-191100- Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb- Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson- Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth- Palo Duro Canyon- 920 PM CDT Mon May 18 2020 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. .DAY ONE...Rest of Tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. Thunderstorms will be possible across western and central parts of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles Tuesday evening and Wednesday afternoon, over central and eastern sections of the area Wednesday night, and then across eastern sections Thursday and Thursday evening. If storms develop during these time periods, a few will have the potential to become severe, with large hail and damaging winds the primary hazards. Thunderstorms will also be possible Saturday and Sunday, primarily during the afternoon and evening hours. Some storms could become severe with large hail and damaging winds. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
An area of severe drought emerged during the third week of the month in the far northwest part of the county. By the end of the month, this area had spread east and south to include northwest, western and north-central parts of the county, encompassing more than one-third of the county.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2020Every state in 2020This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, May 2020
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 884399.