Wildfire in Texas, June 11 to 14, 2020

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
151 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2020

.SHORT TERM...through Friday...

As the main mid level ridge continues to build into the central
CONUS with the center of the ridge over New Mexico, hot and dry
conditions are expected to continue. High temperatures expected
to top out in the 90s today and Friday for all of the Panhandles.
A surface trough over SE Colorado into the NW Panhandles will help
to establish diurnally driven southwest winds which will
establish good LL WAA into the Panhandles.

Only exception to these dry conditions will be a slight chance
(under 20 percent) of a shower or thunderstorms for the northern
Panhandles this evening and tomorrow afternoon. Going into this
evening, light northwest H500 flow downstream of ridge axis over
Raton Mesa with a ridge roller moving across the axis. This will
help to generate a thunderstorms further downstream across parts
of the OK Panhandle and perhaps the far northern TX Panhandle. As
we have mixed out well due to good heating today, gusty winds and
lightning will be the main threat with these storms, along with
small hail as a secondary threat in the most persistent updrafts.
If a line of storms can form with a strong enough outflow boundary
generated, this could shift showers and thunderstorms chances
further SE into the central and northeastern Panhandles, but
chances are very limited at this. Best chances will be further
north near the weak perturbation moving east-southeast. Slight
chance of thunderstorms return Friday afternoon, with similar set
up and best chances this time in the northwestern Panhandles in
closest proximity to mid level perturbation on the periphery of
the ridge axis.

Meccariello

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Elevated fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon and
Friday across much of the central and western Panhandles. Min RH
values will drop to near 10 percent on both days with 20 ft
southwest winds of 15-20 MPH with higher gusts possible. Cured
fuels are available along with ERC values in the 80th to over
90th percentile, max RFTI values of 2 and 3 are expected.
Thunderstorms chances later today along with Friday may have
lightning which could start additional fires with antecedent dry
conditions continuing.

Meccariello

&&

.LONG TERM...Friday night through Wednesday

A broad area of high pressure aloft over all of West Texas, the
southern Rockies and much of Mexico will build northward into the
northern Rockies and northern Plains states this weekend through
most of next week. Hot and dry conditions will prevail across the
Panhandles this weekend through at least the middle of next week.
Surface low pressure to the lee of the Rockies will deepen
somewhat each afternoon and evening this weekend through the first
half of next week. This will result in some breezy to windy
conditions during the afternoons and evenings Saturday through
next Wednesday.

Schneider

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Saturday through Wednesday

Elevated to critical fire weather conditions can be expected
Saturday through next Wednesday mainly during the afternoon and
evening hours across the Oklahoma and much of the Texas
Panhandles. RFTIs are forecast to be around 3 to 5 Saturday and
Sunday and then around 1 to 3 Monday through Wednesday. ERC
percentiles are forecast to be in the 90th to 96th percentile or
higher across much of the Panhandles with minimum afternoon
relative humidity values of 10 to 20 percent Saturday through
Wednesday. 20 foot south to southwesterly winds will increase to
around 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts Saturday and Sunday and then
around 15 to 20 mph with higher gusts Monday through Wednesday. 20
foot winds may possibly be even stronger than currently forecast
at this time. The combination of the very receptive fuels, the
increasing wind speeds, and minimum afternoon relative humidities
at or below 20 percent will lead to elevated and/or critical fire
weather conditions for the next few to several days.

Schneider

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

29/11

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1257 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2020

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-121200-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
1257 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Thunderstorms will be possible across the Oklahoma Panhandle and
the northern Texas Panhandle through tonight. Strong wind gusts to
around 50 mph and small hail will be the main threats. However,
lighting may also cause fire starts.

Elevated fire weather conditions will prevail across the Oklahoma
Panhandle and much of the Texas Panhandle this evening. Breezy
winds and low relative humidity can be expected across these
areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Thunderstorms will be possible across the Oklahoma Panhandle and
the northern Texas Panhandle Friday afternoon. Strong wind gusts
to around 50 mph will be possible. Lightning strikes could also
cause fire starts.

Elevated to critical fire weather conditions can be expected across
the Oklahoma Panhandle and much of the Texas Panhandle Friday
through Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

Area fire managers and emergency officials should be alert for
elevated or critical fire weather conditions through next Wednesday.