Thunderstorms moving through Saginaw Bay and Lake Huron produced gusts of 40 knots or slightly greater.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS DTX wrote it up.
Thunderstorms moving through Saginaw Bay and Lake Huron produced gusts of 40 knots or slightly greater.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Detroit, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 11, 6:42 PM EST, 28 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 742 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2020 .AVIATION... Mid to upper level speed max with left exit region dynamics has guided shower and isolated thunderstorm activity into portions of central Lower Michigan this evening. Current mesoanalysis datasets having difficulty identifying instability but focused 700mb theta e advection is resulting in at minimum a neutral stability profile, and at most a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE. Main cell exceeded 27.5 kft agl cloud top earlier through Mason-Lake-Osceola counties and exhibited some discernible storm organization with broad MCV like center. Given progged structure of 700mb moisture advection and trends, suspect shower and some thunderstorm activity will continue to push east southeastward, surviving into the CWA the next 0-3 hours. Much lower confidence exists with southeastward extent away from MCV center. Much lower confidence also exists beyond 03Z as nocturnal stability takes a greater hold. Did introduce showers in the TAFS for MBS and FNT earlier. Kept with much of the inherited tafs. Did introduce east winds and lowering cigs for 23Z 6/12. For DTW...Shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to remain north of DTW. Will likely see some convective debris cloud work through the airspace given trajectory of progged 700mb moisture advection. DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * Low in cigs aob 5kft after 12z tomorrow morning...High by 23Z 6/12. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 344 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2020 DISCUSSION... There will be a continued drop in sfc wind speeds and gusts during the evening as the gradient relaxes and diurnal mixing ceases. Ongoing convective development across northern Wisconsin is occuring within some exit region jet dynamics and ahead of a mid level short wave impulse. Just enough mid level moisture combined with steep 700- 500mb lapse rates is supporting the convective development. The weak forcing, axis of mid level moisture and steep lapse rates will track across northern and central Lower Mi during the first half of the night. This will support a chance of showers mainly north of the I- 69 corridor. Given the steep lapse rates, can not rule out the possibility of a thunderstorm. Limited elevated instability into Se Mi suggests the chances will be pretty low. The short wave energy will drive a weak sfc cold front into srn Lower Mi overnight. The gradient flow along this front should hinder the degree of nocturnal cooling, supporting min temps mainly in the 50s. The front will stall across srn Mi on Friday before a another stronger mid level wave dives across Lower Mi from the north Fri afternoon. Daytime heating will enhance thermal troughing over the land, causing the front to be ill-defined. Mid level height falls, boundary layer convergence and some remnant mid level moisture will still support a chance of afternoon showers across the southern portions of the forecast area. Model soundings suggest convective depths will be unable to support thunder. Persistent northerly flow will keep conditions downwind of the Lake Huron cool on Friday (highs struggling to break 60 along the shore). Diurnal mixing should boost temps into the upper 60s/low 70s inland (mid 70s south of I-94). A seasonally cool airmass will then advance across the rest of Se Mi Fri evening/Friday night as north-northeasterly flow strengthens across Lake Huron. This will be the result of strong high pressure expanding into the northern Great Lakes. On Saturday, 850mb temps across Se Mi are only forecast to reach +1 to +2 C. Even with full sun and decent daytime mixing amidst a very dry airmass, high temps will remain mainly in the 60s Sat. Medium range model solutions are in reasonable agreement in showing another short wave impulse diving across the Great Lakes Saturday into Sunday before deepening into a closed mid level circulation over the Ohio Valley. The airmass across the Great Lakes will remain very dry, so no precip is expected with this feature. There is considerable variation among model solutions with respect the deepening of this wave and where it cuts off from the mean flow by early next week. The main implication of this variation is how quickly mid level ridging and warm air arrives into the Great Lakes next week. The recent Euro solution takes the cutoff into the Carolinas next week, supporting decent warm air advection into the Great Lakes by the middle of next week. MARINE... Gusty west-southwest flow continues for a few more hours before becoming westerly in the wake of a residual trough. Small Craft Advisory gusts to 25 knots will persist into the late evening hours warranting an extension of the current advisories. One exception is along the southern Lake Huron shoreline where colder waters will lead to higher stability early-on causing gusts to drop-off sooner. High pressure builds in Friday with stable flow veering northwesterly, and then north-northeasterly by Saturday with dry conditions. While winds are mainly expected to hold below 15 knots, seas will be choppy with waves in the 2 to 4 foot range for Lake Huron Friday night with onshore flow. Additional Small Craft Advisories may be needed based on wave action. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LHZ421-422. Lake St Clair...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LCZ460. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LEZ444. && AVIATION.....CB DISCUSSION...SC MARINE.......KK You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 339 AM EDT Thu Jun 11 2020 MIZ047>049-053>055-060>062-068>070-075-076-082-083-120900- Midland-Bay-Huron-Saginaw-Tuscola-Sanilac-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer- Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe- 339 AM EDT Thu Jun 11 2020 This hazardous weather outlook is for most of southeast Michigan. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed today and tonight. LCZ460-LEZ444-LHZ361>363-421-422-441>443-462>464-120900- Lake St Clair- Michigan Waters of Lake Erie from Detroit River to North Cape MI- Lake Huron from 5NM east of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Lt beyond 5 NM off shore- Lake Huron from Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Point MI beyond 5NM off shore- Lake Huron from Sturgeon Point to Alabaster MI beyond 5NM off shore- Outer Saginaw Bay SW of Alabaster to Port Austin MI to Inner Saginaw Bay-Inner Saginaw Bay SW of Point Au Gres to Bay Port MI- Port Austin to Harbor Beach MI-Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac MI- Port Sanilac to Port Huron MI- Lake Huron from Port Austin to Harbor Beach beyond 5NM Off Shore- Lake Huron from Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac beyond 5NM Off Shore- Lake Huron from Port Sanilac to Port Huron beyond 5NM Off Shore- 339 AM EDT Thu Jun 11 2020 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Lake Erie, Lake Huron and Lake St Clair. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Gale Warnings and Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the nearshore waters. Refer to the latest marine forecasts for details. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed today and tonight. MIZ063-120900- St. Clair- 339 AM EDT Thu Jun 11 2020 This hazardous weather outlook is for St. Clair County. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight A lakeshore flood warning is in effect today. Refer to the Lakeshore Hazard Message for details. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed today and tonight. You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit. SF
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
726 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2020
MIZ048-120000-
Bay MI-
726 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2020
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN BAY COUNTY UNTIL 800
PM EDT...
At 725 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Rhodes, or 12 miles east of Gladwin, moving east at 45 mph.
Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.
This strong thunderstorm will be near...
Bentley around 735 PM EDT.
Pinconning around 745 PM EDT.
Other locations impacted by this storm include Mount Forest, Crump,
Willard and Bay City State Recreation Area.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 4391 8404 4391 8391 4392 8390 4392 8387
4374 8391 4369 8388 4366 8380 4366 8417
4400 8416 4400 8405
TIME...MOT...LOC 2325Z 271DEG 40KT 4392 8426
BehnkeSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
804 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2020
MIZ053-060-120100-
Shiawassee-Saginaw-
804 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2020
...A LINE OF SHOWERS WILL AFFECT SAGINAW AND SHIAWASSEE COUNTIES...
At 803 PM EDT, radar indicated showers were located along a line
extending from Freeland to 6 miles west of Marion Springs. Movement
was southeast at 45 mph.
Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with these showers.
These showers will be near...
Saginaw and Zilwaukee around 815 PM EDT.
Bridgeport around 820 PM EDT.
Oakley and Henderson around 825 PM EDT.
Owosso around 830 PM EDT.
Frankenmuth, Birch Run and Corunna around 835 PM EDT.
Durand and Lennon around 845 PM EDT.
Byron around 855 PM EDT.
Other locations impacted by these showers include Brant, Nelson,
Carrollton, Garfield, Arthur, Fenmore, Burt, Gera, Buena Vista
Township and Layton Corners.
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
LAT...LON 4348 8437 4348 8417 4357 8417 4357 8405
4352 8405 4352 8382 4348 8382 4348 8370
4322 8370 4322 8393 4278 8392 4278 8436
TIME...MOT...LOC 0003Z 304DEG 37KT 4350 8410 4322 8445
KKThe Detroit radar (KDTX), 125 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 00:09 UTC.
3 marine thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Lake Huron in 2020Every state in 2020This day in weather history
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 900901, 900903, 900905.