Excessive Heat and Hail in Texas, July 9, 2020

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1252 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours. This
afternoon into evening, showers and thunderstorms should set up
along a NW-SE line from SW of KCDS to KLBB to KBFE terminals.
This convection may come close to or directly affect the KLBB and
KPVW terminals; though, models are not in very good agreement on
whether convective initiation will occur or where. Storms that
form will be high based and have the potential of winds up to 50
mph, with a possibility of higher winds if a downburst occurs.
High temperatures this afternoon into evening could cause Density
Altitude concerns for heavily loaded aircraft at all terminals.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 252 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020/

SHORT TERM...
Biggest concern for today is the possibility of isolated
thunderstorms this afternoon across portions of the forecast area. A
weak surface low will develop across the Oklahoma Panhandle through
the day with a trailing surface trough stretching down into
southeastern New Mexico.  This will help a weak and broad dryline to
develop across the forecast area and provide an area of weak surface
convergence with southwesterly wind west of the trough axis and a
more south to southeasterly wind east of the trough axis.  Forecast
soundings are mixed with regards to the strength of a cap across the
region but all have MLCAPE values between 500 to 750 J/kg.  There
are a few more models that develop storms late this afternoon
compared to yesterday but upper-air analysis and WV satellite loop
show little to nothing in the way of weak disturbances that could
help storms to form.  With surface temperatures approaching 104-105
F across the Caprock, we may manage to briefly break the Cap and see
some isolated storms and have kept a low-end chance across the
central third of the forecast area for late afternoon into early
evening.

The rest of the story is the heat. As mentioned above, highs on the
Caprock will be in the 104-105 F range with 106-109 F for the
Rolling Plains. This will push the Caprock close to or at Heat
Advisory criteria while the Rolling Plains remains just under
criteria which starts at 110.  We will run the advisory from 17Z-2Z
or 11 pm through 9 pm CDT and rather than going with a long-fused
heat advisory potentially lasting greater than 3 days, we will start
with a day-by-day approach but may have to reconsider this as we
head into the weekend and next week.

Jordan

LONG TERM...
Forecast is on track for an extended period of extreme heat under
a persistent and strong ridging pattern across the southwest CONUS
centered over New Mexico. Very little change in the forecast,
while continuing to bump up NBM lows over the weekend and into
next week. Monsoon moisture has increased leading to slight chance
POPS across the extreme southwest Texas Panhandle in the higher
terrain during the evening hours beginning on Sunday and
repeating almost nightly through the middle of next week. The
added moisture and marginal cloud cover may help keep extreme
temps down slightly in those areas, but almost negligibly so.
Confidence continues to be high that daily records may be broken
for both daytime max temps and high over night low temperatures.
The all time high temperature of 114 in Lubbock and 117 in
Childress, appear to be safe for the time being. Daily heat
advisories and/or warnings are likely through the extended
forecast period.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ021>024-027>030-
033>036-039>042.

&&

99/99/10

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1100 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020

TXZ021>044-101600-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd-
Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum-
Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
1100 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

High temperatures across the South Plains will climb to 105 degrees
this afternoon. A heat advisory is in effect from Noon through 9 pm
for areas on the Caprock.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the southern and central
South Plains this afternoon and evening. If storms do develop,
strong wind gusts to 55 mph will be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

A prolonged period of record to near record heat in the triple digits will
continue into the first part of next week. Overnight temperatures
will also remain well above normal during this time period which will
not provide much relief each evening and lead to an increased risk of
heat related illnesses.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.