Drought stress on ranchlands in Starr, Jim Hogg and Zapata County was maintained into mid January with minimal rainfall and mild to warm days with moderate to low relative humidity. Severe (D2) Drought areal coverage remained intact, but a pocket of Extreme (D3) conditions arrived on the 21st across the western portion of Zapata County.
Every event with a place to put it; 3 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS BRO wrote it up.
Drought stress on ranchlands in Starr, Jim Hogg and Zapata County was maintained into mid January with minimal rainfall and mild to warm days with moderate to low relative humidity. Severe (D2) Drought areal coverage remained intact, but a pocket of Extreme (D3) conditions arrived on the 21st across the western portion of Zapata County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Brownsville, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 31, 10:47 PM CST, 1 hour 13 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1047 PM CST Tue Dec 31 2019 .DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below. && .AVIATION...Light isolated showers are starting to show up on radar a little more than previously. Coverage will slowly increase overnight. Ceilings have dropped down to near MVFR and will continue to lower overnight. The best rain chances are still progged for Wednesday during the day, with ceilings and visibility lowering to IFR for much of the day as an area of low pressure develops over the lower Texas coast and drifts slowly north. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 527 PM CST Tue Dec 31 2019/ DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below. AVIATION...Obs are currently VFR with overcast ceilings at around 6 kft and light east northeast winds. Guidance is trending ceilings down to MVFR and IFR by Wednesday morning along with light winds shifting to southeast. Not much rain evident on radar right now, but conditions should become more favorable over the next 12 hours as shifting winds bring moisture up from the Gulf and southwest mid level instability and moisture becomes more effective. Lower ceilings and visibility in light precip are forecast for the regional airports as Wednesday dawns for air travelers. A weak rumble of thunder here or there will be low probability, but not completely out of the question. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 313 PM CST Tue Dec 31 2019/ .RAINY NEW YEAR'S DAY IN STORE... SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night): A closed 500mb low continues to work south through Baja California, with southwesterly mid level flow continuing across the lower Texas coast. A surface low approaches Deep South Texas from northern Mexico to kick off the new year, with a weak coastal trough sliding north across the western Gulf of Mexico. Moisture continues to increase today into New Year's Day, boosting rain chances between midnight and daybreak tomorrow. Most NYE plans will end up dry before midnight, getting dicey the later festivities go into the night. Motorists late tonight may need to drive with caution on wet roadways. Nearly steady rain is expected to develop late tonight into Wednesday morning, with some heavier banding possible. The models have had trouble pinning the location down of any heavier showers, so have kept it close to previous packages, through the mid valley and northeastern ranchlands. Will keep mention of thunder for Wednesday afternoon and early night, although, feel it would likely stay very isolated. PWAT values still rise toward 1.6 to 1.8 inches, with a couple of models still bringing 2.0 inches of precipitable water across Cameron County. Overall, QPF values near 1 to 2 inches should bring some much needed and welcomed rain, with locally 3 inches near heavier banding or isolated thunderstorms. Nuisance flooding or ponding on roadways may occur Wednesday morning into Wednesday night in typical low lying or poorly draining areas. Temperatures will only vary about 10 degrees or so over the next 36 hours with thick cloud cover and rainfall expected. Lows tonight range from the low 50s to low 60s, highs Wednesday reach the low to upper 60s, and lows Wednesday night dip back into the low to upper 50s. Have also mentioned patchy fog across portions of the northeastern counties late Wednesday night with light to calm winds and abundant ground moisture. Confidence remains a little lower on any dense fog at this time. LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday): Drying trend on Thursday now looks a bit slower to materialize, given the model consensus for a somewhat slower progression of the former Baja low shearing out across northern Mexico. Remnant shear axis of said low should reach the coast by around 00Z/Friday, with column moisture gradually decreasing from west-to-east in tandem. Deep South Texas will still generally lie in the right-entrance region of a jet- streak aloft, so some modest lifting will allow for mainly light showers to linger through at least the morning along the coast and offshore. Patchy fog could also linger into mid-morning for portions of the northern Ranchlands (see short-term discussion, above). Afternoon temperatures should recover to near or slightly above normal (lower 70s) as cloud cover gradually thins. For Thursday, and right on through much of the remainder of the long- term period, have leaned on blending latest NBM with inherited forecast, with a few nudges here and there where MOS consensus differed. A few points of interest for Friday: A weak (at least thermally speaking) cold front is poised to move through in the early- morning hours, with NW breezes increasing to near 20mph in the afternoon, driven by 30-40KT flow at 850mb. Before that happens, though, light winds, still-wet ground, and dry air above a very shallow surface moist layer (per NAM time-height sections) should combine to yield some fog, mainly from the mid-Valley eastward. MET/MAV guidance also on board with this idea, so have introduced patchy fog from 06-12Z Friday for now. See Fire Wx Discussion below regarding possible concerns. Still dry, but with light and variable winds for Saturday. NW flow aloft ahead of an upstream ridge should lead to a delightful day with sunny skies and afternoon temps in the lower 70s F after a cool start (40s pretty much everywhere except the immediate coast). Pretty similar story for Sunday, only with both highs and lows a few degrees warmer as low-level southerly flow begins to re-establish with surface ridging moving off to the east. Another nice day is likely to follow on Monday, with zonal flow aloft prevailing. Both GFS/ECMWF operational runs indicate next FROPA to be sometime next Tuesday (07 Jan) as the next short-wave dives through the Plains. Some differences with how far south the parent trough digs and associated moisture return, however, so have limited PoP's to slight-chance levels, favoring the coast. Could be a more significant cool-down behind this one, but still a little far out have a good handle on this... Happy New Year 2020! MARINE (Now through Wednesday Night): Low pressure works toward the lower Texas coast to start the new year, winds begin to shift more southeasterly and slowly build seas into New Year’s Day. As the low pressure works further off the coast and northeast, winds will shift toward the north, staying mostly light to moderate and allowing seas to subside. Marine conditions may remain below any adverse messaging, however, Small Craft Caution conditions remain possible across offshore Gulf of Mexico waters due to winds. Showers are likely and isolated thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night across all coastal waters. Thursday through Monday: Much improved wind and sea conditions on Thursday, with light offshore flow and moderate remnant seas, though showers and perhaps a rogue thunderstorm or two remain in the picture, at least through the daytime hours. Next moderately strong cold front moves through the coastal waters in the pre-dawn hours of Friday. NW winds quickly increase to around 20 knots, so Small Craft Advisories are probable. Seas may build as high as 6-8 feet offshore as well. Lighter winds and lower seas take hold for the weekend with weak high pressure in control. Southerly flow looks to increase again Monday ahead of the next cold front, with possible return to SCEC/SCA. FIRE WEATHER...May need to keep an eye on fire weather conditions for Friday (03 Jan 2020). Relative humidity values are forecast to fall to 20-30% across most of Deep South Texas lying west of Hwy. 281/I-69C. Meanwhile, 20-foot winds may increase to 15-20mph from the NW in the wake of a dry, relatively weak cold front. Still some uncertainty as to the robustness of atmospheric drying, depending on the ultimate path of a short-wave trough at mid- levels of the atmosphere. Fine fuels are currently considered "cured" across much of the area delineated above. Moreover, soils should remain fairly wet from Wednesday's rains, which would tend to limit wildfire spread. && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && This product is also available on the web at: HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV 54/63
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Brownsville TX 404 PM CST Tue Dec 31 2019 TXZ248>257-351-353-012215- Zapata-Jim Hogg-Brooks-Inland Kenedy-Starr-Southern Hidalgo- Inland Willacy-Inland Cameron-Coastal Willacy-Coastal Cameron- Coastal Kenedy-Northern Hidalgo- 404 PM CST Tue Dec 31 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Deep South Texas. .DAY ONE...Tonight No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday An elevated risk of rip currents is possible at the beaches of South Padre Island and at Boca Chica Beach Wednesday through Saturday and again on Monday. Numerous showers with embedded isolated thunderstorms are forecast for Wednesday through Wednesday night. Any of the heavier or more persistent showers or thunderstorms will have the ability to produce nuisance flooding in low-lying and poorly-draining areas. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed. GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-012215- Laguna Madre from the Port of Brownsville to the Arroyo Colorado- Laguna Madre from the Arroyo Colorado To 5 NM north of Port Mansfield TX- Laguna Madre from 5 nm north of Port Mansfield to Baffin Bay TX- Coastal waters from Port Mansfield to the Rio Grande out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield out 20 nm- Waters from Port Mansfield to the Rio Grande extending from 20 to 60 nm- Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield extending from 20 to 60 nm- 404 PM CST Tue Dec 31 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of The Gulf of Mexico and The Laguna Madre. .DAY ONE...Tonight No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday Small Craft Advisories may be needed along the Lower Texas Coast Friday through Friday night due to strong winds and rough seas in the wake of a cold front. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
3 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
Severe (D2) Drought conditions prevailed across central Starr County through January 20th.
Severe (D2) Drought conditions prevailed across the majority of Zapata County through January 20th.
Severe (D2) Drought conditions prevailed across the western portion of Jim Hogg County through January 20th.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2020Every state in 2020This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, January 2020
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 873733, 873734, 873735.