Winter Weather in Texas, February 11 to 12, 2020

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1051 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2020

.AVIATION...
LIFR coming to fruition at KLBB and KPVW with some light
drizzle/freezing drizzle developing as well. Precipitation should
change to light snow later tonight, tapering off before noon
Tuesday. However, IFR conditions likely to persist throughout the
day.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 932 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2020/

UPDATE...
The Winter Storm Watch has been downgraded to an advisory and
expanded to include Lubbock, Crosby, and Floyd counties. Current
trends suggest that accumulating snowfall across our northwestern
counties will remain below the warning threshold of four inches in
a 12 hour period. Areas that could see snowfall accumulations
approach warning criteria will be north and west of an Amherst to
Tulia line, however confidence at the current time remains low.
Radar returns have begun to increase within the past hour across the
southwestern Texas Panhandle and the Permian Basin. These returns
are light with heavier precip remaining in central to eastern NM.
Temperatures remain near to above freezing across the FA and have
been slow to fall. The advisory area was extended in part for the
potential for light freezing rain creating slick road conditions.
Additionally some sleet and snow with light accumulations will be
possible.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 228 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2020/

DISCUSSION...
Difficult forecast on hand. Batch of widespread rain continues moving
NE across the region. Should see a break in the precipitation on
the back side as the initial wave departs as per current radar
trends. With this break in the action, and very little freezing
precipitation impacts at this time, will hold off on advisory but
that may have to be issued later today or early Tuesday.

As upper low rounds the corner just south of Arizona
overnight, lift will increase with precipitation becoming more
widespread across the region especially between 3 am and 6 am.
Precipitation type problematic but suffice to say there will be a
wintry mix of rain, freezing rain, and light snow across most of
the area on Tuesday. Could even see some patchy sleet although
don't expect much in that category.

This pattern of an open trough...weakening as it lift out...it
typically not the best pattern for heavy snow across West Texas.
But low center does move across the SW Panhandle Wed morning, and
that region should be in the best location for some heavier
snowfall rates and some accumulations possible near 4 inches. Have
backed down on earlier amounts in this region, but will keep
winter storm watch going in same counties, but this may have to
be trimmed back this evening based on updated deterministic snow
totals. A couple of periods of lift over the SW Panhandle, the
first late tonight, and then again Tuesday evening. Some
impressive lift in NW counties albeit for only a few hours could
result in isolated totals 4 inches or more, especially over Parmer
County. A tight snowfall gradient toward the lighter snow amounts
will likely exist.

Farther SE toward Lubbock, Bufkit soundings show a warm nose
through most of the event. May see a brief period of a true snow
sounding around/after midnight Tuesday, but could be difficult
to see a prolonged period of snow with the warm temps aloft and
only brief period with saturation in dendritic growth zone
associated with main lift. Based on the above reasoning, trimmed
back snow amounts most places. All precipitation should end
rapidly from west to east Wednesday morning with temperatures
returning into the 40s and 50s with a return to northerly winds in
wake of system.

A return to milder weather under zonal flow late in the week and
into the weekend...60s and 70s. A mainly dry shortwave will pass
to the north Saturday night/Sunday without much fanfare. Next
chance of precip. may be just beyond the 7 day period as deep
large scale trough develops over the western Conus Monday or after
next week. James

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Wednesday for TXZ021>024-
027>030-033>036.

&&

07

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
417 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2020

TXZ021>044-111030-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd-
Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum-
Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
417 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Expect a wintry mix of precipitation for areas on the Caprock this
morning with slick spots possible on roads, especially elevated
surfaces through noon time. The precipitation will become mostly
rain later this afternoon, before tapering off in the evening hours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

A second round of more intense and widespread winter precipitation
will develop late tonight and will persist through early Wednesday.
Expect snowfall totals between 3 to 6 inches across the extreme
southwest Texas Panhandle, with lower totals between 1 to 3 inches
for the South Plains and Rolling Plains by early Wednesday. A Winter
Storm Watch is in effect until 6 AM Wednesday morning for the
northwest South Plains and the extreme southwest Texas Panhandle.
Traveling in these areas during this time may be hazardous with risks
of icy roads and snow packed roads.