High Wind in Texas, April 23, 2020

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
710 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2020

.AVIATION...
VFR next 24 hours. Winds will gradually diminish but still remain
elevated at 10 to 15 KTS for the evening and much of the overnight
hours. A cold front should arrive shortly before sunrise
switching winds around to the northwest.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 231 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2020/

SHORT TERM...
An outside shot of high based showers and a cold front moving
through is the only weather concern for the next 24 hours or so.

A short wave, evident on water vapor imagery, was moving out of
the central Rockies this afternoon and will continue to move
towards the area this evening. The left exit region from an upper
level jet associated with this short wave will generally skirt
just north of the local area. But some lift combined with warm
surface temperatures may create some high based shower or thunder
activity in the extreme southeastern Texas Panhandle. There will
not be much instability to work with as soundings depict a classic
inverted V signature.

A surface cyclone will move east across the southern Texas
Panhandle overnight. This will drag a cold front through on Friday
morning. Respectable pressure rises of 4-5mb/3hr behind the front
will bring a period of breezy northwesterly winds starting Friday
morning through the early afternoon. High based convection again
looks possible Friday afternoon in the southeastern Panhandle as
an upper level jet moves directly overhead. However, chances will
again be low. Deep mixing will still allow very dry air to mix
down to the surface bringing very low relative humidity values to
the southwestern South Plains.

LONG TERM...
Wind speeds will decrease through the evening Friday as the
surface ridge settles in over the region. Highs on Saturday will
cool a bit further into the low to mid 70s but low-level flow will
start to veer to the south late in the day. Low-level flow will
then start to increase on Sunday with rapid moisture recovery
attempting to take place along with temperatures warming each day
into Monday. There remains considerable uncertainty whether a weak
dryline will be able to generate storms Monday afternoon mainly
across the Rolling Plains where the best boundary layer moisture
will be. The GFS remains the most aggressive with precipitation
with signals of convective feedback while the ECMWF has much less
coverage and limited to the southern Rolling Plains. With several
model runs under our belt with a precipitation signal in them, a
sliver of slight chance PoPs was added to the eastern Rolling
Plains. Presence of a stalled frontal boundary, weak northwesterly
to nearly zonal flow pulling a weak shortwave over the region, and
model forecast dewpoints in the mid to upper 50F range all would
indicate conditions favorable for convection. Too early to tell if
there will be a strong cap in place to squash chances so we will
need to keep an eye on this.

Tuesday will be another warm day although the ECMWF is faster with
a cold front arriving mid-day rather than end of the day in the
GFS. Low-level moisture will be scoured east ahead of the front so
chances for precipitation look negligible. Temperatures will be
about 10 degrees cooler behind this front with warmer conditions
developing Thursday as a strong ridge develops over the
southwestern U.S.

Jordan

FIRE WEATHER...
Although a cold front will move through the area on Friday
morning, elevated fire weather conditions will still be possible
in the southwestern South Plains where ERC values are highest
across the region. This cold front will bring winds to the
northwest at speeds between 15 and 20 mph starting mid morning.
Very dry air still still be in place allowing relative humidity
values to be between 10 and 15 percent in the SW South Plains.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

99/99/26

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1120 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2020

TXZ021>044-250430-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd-
Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum-
Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
1120 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Warm, dry and breezy conditions may result in an elevated fire
danger across the western South Plains Friday afternoon. Otherwise,
the potential for hazardous weather is low.