Hail in South Dakota, June 7, 2020

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
457 PM MDT Sun Jun 7 2020

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Sunday)
Issued at 135 PM MDT Sun Jun 7 2020

Upper trough remains to the west this afternoon producing fast
southwesterly flow over the forecast area. A jet streak has
rounded the base of the trough and is headed toward the forecast
area from the southwest. A surface front is currently located from
east of KMBG to east of KIEN. With dewpoints to the east of the
front in the upper 50s to mid-60s and temperatures in the 90s the
MLCAPE has risen to 2000-3000J/KG. CU field on the vis sat depicts
this area well. So far convection to the east of the boundary has
been limited due to an inversion around 650mb. Expect the
inversion there will be overcome by late aftn as upper forcing
increases with the approaching jet max. Supercells capable of
large hail and damaging winds will be possible. While relatively
high LCLs may limit potential, a few tornadoes cannot be ruled
out. A severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for our south
central SD zones.

Observations over northeastern Wyoming show a very dry boundary
layer due to southwesterly downslope flow. Dewpoints over much of
northeastern Wyoming are only in the 30s, although temperatures
there remain mostly in the mid to upper 70s. MLCAPE there is very
low with somewhat higher readings around 500J/KG toward the WY/MT
border. Any storms that do develop over the higher terrain and
move into northeastern Wyoming will likely produce strong to
severe gusts due to the relatively fast low and mid-level flow
over the area.

19Z KUNR sounding shows relatively steep lapse rates capped by an
inversion above 640mb. Dewpoints over the Black Hills are
currently falling but with increasing upper lift, may see a few
storms able to form over the hills this aftn and eve.

The upper trough will remain to the west on Monday. While the
surface front will be mainly to the east of the forecast area, a
few storms may clip Todd and Tripp counties during the aftn and
evening. Storms may also develop over northeastern Wyoming and
southwestern South Dakota Monday afternoon and evening as another
jet steak affects the region in the fast southwesterly flow
aloft. Any precip would then spread eastward Monday night as the
upper trough shifts eastward. Mainly dry weather is then expected
through the rest of the week with warming temperatures as an
upper ridge builds over the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued At 455 PM MDT Sun Jun 7 2020

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms, some strong to severe, will
continue until around 06Z. Mainly VFR conditions are expected
through the period. The exception will be in or near any TSRA where
local MVFR conditions may develop with the strongest storms.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...10
AVIATION...10

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1001 AM MDT Sun Jun 7 2020

SDZ001-002-012>014-024>032-041>044-046-047-049-072>074-WYZ054>058-
071-081300-
Harding-Perkins-Butte-Northern Meade Co Plains-Ziebach-
Northern Black Hills-Northern Foot Hills-Rapid City-
Southern Foot Hills-Central Black Hills-Southern Black Hills-
Custer Co Plains-Pennington Co Plains-Haakon-Fall River-
Oglala Lakota-Jackson-Bennett-Mellette-Todd-Tripp-
Sturgis/Piedmont Foot Hills-Southern Meade Co Plains-
Hermosa Foot Hills-Northern Campbell-Southern Campbell-
Western Crook-Wyoming Black Hills-Weston-Northeastern Crook-
1001 AM MDT Sun Jun 7 2020 /1101 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2020/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western South Dakota and
northeastern Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening, mainly between 300 pm and 900 pm. Golfball size hail or
larger and 60 MPH wind gusts or greater will be the main threats.
An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Isolated thunderstorms are possible Monday and Tuesday, but
organized severe thunderstorms are not expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio for further updates...or check
our web site at weather.gov/rapidcity

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