Hail in South Dakota, June 2, 2020

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
429 AM MDT Tue Jun 2 2020

.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Monday)
Issued at 128 AM MDT Tue Jun 2 2020

The northern plains remains beneath an upper ridge,
while an upper low spins off the coast of CA. Skies are mostly clear
across the majority of the CWA; however, a few showers/storms have
developed to the northwest, which CAMS indicate will track through
northwestern SD this morning. Surface map shows stationary boundary
draped across southwestern and central SD. At 2 AM, temperatures are
in and around the 60s, with variable winds around 10 kts.

Ridging will transition to zonal flow today and for much of the
week, as several shortwaves cross the region. With cool air
advecting into the area, highs will range from the lower 70s across
northeastern WY and the Black Hills to the mid 80s across central
SD. The next round of storms may develop as early as this afternoon
over the convergence zone of the southern foothills, where some
instability develops this afternoon. Storms are expected to expand
in coverage this evening and overnight across much of the CWA, when
a weak shortwave moves into the area beneath upper divergence. Some
strong to marginally severe storms will be possible; additionally,
with PWATs 150-200% of normal across northeastern WY and
southwestern SD, heavy rain may become an issue for areas beneath
training storms.

Showers/storms will continue tracking across western SD Wednesday
morning, with weak instability. Thinking best forcing will be east
of the area by the afternoon when CAPE increases. Although a strong
to severe storm cannot be ruled out, not seeing a widespread severe
threat Wednesday.

A few showers/storms will be possible again Thursday as weak upper
energy continues to pass over the area. On Friday, upper ridging
will rebuild as the aforementioned CA coast upper low begins to push
onshore, resulting in a mostly dry day. Upper low will weaken into a
fast-moving shortwave as it approaches the northern plains
through SW flow. GFS is still the most aggressive solution, while
the EC has the wave a little farther west, leaving the CWA mostly
dry. The Canadian is somewhere in between. Will continue to watch
this system for its potential to bring severe weather Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued At 426 AM MDT Tue Jun 2 2020

Area of MVFR ceilings will persist across northwest South Dakota
through this morning...with a brief period of IFR ceilings around
the northern Black Hills. Ceilings will improve to VFR late this
morning. A few thunderstorms will move through northwest South
Dakota early this morning. Brief IFR conditions are possible with
any stronger storm. VFR conditions expected this afternoon. More
thunderstorms will move across the area late this afternoon into
tonight...local IFR conditions with the thunderstorms.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...Pojorlie
AVIATION...7

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
226 AM MDT Tue Jun 2 2020

SDZ001-002-012>014-024>032-041>044-046-047-049-072>074-WYZ054>058-
071-031300-
Harding-Perkins-Butte-Northern Meade Co Plains-Ziebach-
Northern Black Hills-Northern Foot Hills-Rapid City-
Southern Foot Hills-Central Black Hills-Southern Black Hills-
Custer Co Plains-Pennington Co Plains-Haakon-Fall River-
Oglala Lakota-Jackson-Bennett-Mellette-Todd-Tripp-
Sturgis/Piedmont Foot Hills-Southern Meade Co Plains-
Hermosa Foot Hills-Northern Campbell-Southern Campbell-
Western Crook-Wyoming Black Hills-Weston-Northeastern Crook-
226 AM MDT Tue Jun 2 2020 /326 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2020/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western South Dakota and
northeastern Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a chance of thunderstorms this afternoon into tonight. A
few storms may be strong to severe.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Much of this week looks active with thunderstorms, some of which
will be severe at times.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio for further updates...or check
our web site at weather.gov/rapidcity

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
454 AM MDT Tue Jun 2 2020

SDZ002-021200-
Perkins SD-
454 AM MDT Tue Jun 2 2020

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER NORTHERN PERKINS COUNTY...

At 454 AM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Lodgepole, or 12 miles south of Hettinger, moving east at 35 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Lemmon, Lodgepole, White Butte, Shadehill and Shadehill Reservoir.

LAT...LON 4594 10200 4565 10201 4567 10296 4573 10296
      4594 10282
TIME...MOT...LOC 1054Z 255DEG 32KT 4583 10270

Pojorlie