Abundant moisture combined with local and diurnal effects to result in the development of heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms across the northwestern quadrant of Puerto Rico.
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The episode as NWS SJU wrote it up.
Abundant moisture combined with local and diurnal effects to result in the development of heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms across the northwestern quadrant of Puerto Rico.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS San Juan, PR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 26, 3:53 PM AST, 2 hours 57 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 353 PM AST Tue May 26 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Shower activity will pick up tomorrow and especially Thursday as a ridge to our west weakens and is replaced by lower pressure. Heavy showers and thunderstorms are likely, and there will be a threat for localized flooding, particularly over northwestern Puerto Rico. Some Saharan dust will arrive by this weekend that will hinder shower development, but isolated to scattered showers are still to be expected. Tranquil seas are expected for the next few days. && .SHORT TERM...Rest of Today through Thursday... Despite plenty of CAPE, above average lapse rates, and precipitable water near 2 inches, shower activity was very suppressed today due to a ridge at mid to upper levels. We appear to be in the ideal location for subsidence under the ridge, that made the upward development of shower activity today weak and short-lived. However, this ridge is weakening, and with the other ideal ingredients in place, there still is the opportunity for showers and thunderstorms into the evening and nighttime hours. Interestingly, CAPE above 2000 J/kg with precipitable water will continue through the short term period. With the ridge weakening, much more activity is expected for tomorrow and especially Thursday. Currently a trough of low pressure at mid to upper levels is stalling out to our north. As the ridge to our west erodes, the trough will begin to extend to our west by Thursday, and also bring 500mb temperatures to around -7 to -8C. Thus Thursday is expected to be very active. To summarize, Showers will slowly die down in the evening hours over western Puerto Rico. Models suggest overnight and morning showers for the USVI and eastern Puerto Rico. Tomorrow the winds will shift to be more southerly, which is rather unhelpful for good showers over Puerto Rico, but given the other ingredients already in place, there will likely be more showers than today. The area of focus for these showers will once again be for northwestern and northcentral Puerto Rico. Areas of ponding water and even some localized flooding is possible. Thursday appears to be the most active day, and the day with the best chance for flooding. Light southeasterly winds mean once again the focus of activity will be for northwestern Puerto Rico, with heavy showers and thunderstorms likely. .LONG TERM...Friday through Wednesday... A TUTT induced surface low is forecast to develop on Friday about 800 miles to our northeast and slowly pull further north over the central Atlantic through early Monday. Meanwhile a broad surface high pressure will build across the central Atlantic. This will continue to promote a generally moderate east to southeasterly wind flow through the long term period, although the surface induce low may favor a weaker southerly flow by the end of the workweek into the weekend. As the low pulls away, lingering moisture will remain across the region on Friday with model estimated precipitable water ranging between 1.6-2.1 inches. 500 mb temperatures are forecast to drop below -8.0 degrees C through the weekend and into early next week, as the TUTT lingers to our north and as a polar trough amplifies over the western Atlantic by Monday. This will continue to provide some instability aloft for thunderstorm development in diurnal activity each afternoon over western PR. Warmer than normal temperatures are expected due to southeasterly trade winds. Having said that, a building low to mid level ridge across the tropical Atlantic will bring a Saharan Air Layer(SAL) across the islands during the weekend. Therefore, hazy skies are expected during this period. Drier air filtering in with the SAL will limit rainfall activity across the USVI and the eastern sections of PR, however, patches of moisture embedded in the trade winds will bring the occasional passing showers across these areas through early next week. && .AVIATION... Mostly VFR conditions expected. Sct SHRA and isolated TS will continue to affect portions of northwest PR through 26/22z, affecting mainly TJBQ. Brief MVFR conditions cannot be ruled out. VCSH may affect portions of the USVI and Leeward Island terminals overnight. Winds will continue from the ESE between 10 and 15 kts with sea breeze variations through 26/22z, becoming light and variable overnight. && .MARINE... Fairly calm seas are expected for the next several days, with wave heights generally below 5 feet. Later this week, winds will pick up to around 20 knots from the southeast, and that will cause waves up to 6 feet with choppy seas. Given the isolated areas with winds of 15-20 knots today, and widespread areas later this week, small craft operators are urged to exercise caution. Furthermore, shower activity is expected to increase across the local waters for the next few days. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SJU 78 90 77 89 / 60 60 60 60 STT 78 88 76 88 / 60 60 60 60 && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...None. VI...None. AM...None. && SHORT TERM...GL PUBLIC DESK...MB
Perspectivas sobre Condiciones Peligrosas del Tiempo Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia San Juan PR 1010 AM AST martes 26 de mayo de 2020 AMZ710>745-PRZ001>013-271415- San Juan y Vecindad-Noreste-Sureste-Este Interior- Norte Central-Interior Central-Ponce y Vecindad-Noroeste- Oeste Interior-Mayaguez y Vecindad-Suroeste-Culebra-Vieques- Aguas cercanas y mar afuera del Atlantico y Caribe- 1010 AM AST martes 26 de mayo de 2020 Esta perspectiva sobre las condiciones peligrosas del tiempo es para Puerto Rico y las aguas costeras del Atlantico. .Dia Uno...Hoy y esta noche .Tronadas...Existe el potencial de tronadas con lluvia fuerte y vientos en rafagas breves esta tarde a traves de sectores del norte y noroeste de Puerto Rico. .Inundaciones...Lluvias fuertes pudieran resultar en inundaciones urbanas y de riachuelos. .Vientos...Se esperan vientos sostenidos en exceso de 20 mph (17 nudos) a traves de las aguas cercanas a la costa del Atlantico de Puerto Rico. .Corrientes marinas...Existe un riesgo moderado de corrientes marinas para las playas del norte de Puerto Rico. Tambien existe un riesgo moderado de corrientes marinas para la mitad noreste de Culebra y el extremo este de Vieques. .Dias dos hasta el siete...miercoles a lunes... La actividad de aguaceros y tronadas aumentara cada dia y llegara a su potencial maximo el jueves. Esto se debe a que la humedad aumentara, y el paso de una onda tropical a traves de las aguas del Caribe entre miercoles y jueves. .Comunicado sobre informacion reportada por observadores... No se anticipa activacion de observadores, sin embargo, se recomienda a los observadores individuales que reporten inundaciones y corrientes marinas al Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia en San Juan mientras siguen las indicaciones de las autoridades locales y estatales. AMZ715-725-VIZ001-002-271415- San Tomas, San John y Islas Adyacentes-Santa Cruz-Aguas cercanas del Atlantico y aguas costeras adyacentes del Caribe- 1010 AM AST martes 26 de mayo de 2020 Esta perspectiva sobre las condiciones peligrosas del tiempo es para Islas Virgenes Estadounidenses y las aguas costeras adyacentes. .Dia uno...Hoy y esta noche .Corrientes marinas...Existe un riesgo moderado de corrientes marinas para las playas del norte y del este de las Islas Virgenes Americanas. .Dias dos hasta el siete...miercoles a lunes... La actividad de aguaceros y tronadas aumentara cada dia y llegara a su potencial maximo el jueves. Esto se debe a que la humedad aumentara y al paso de una onda tropical que se movera a traves de las aguas del Caribe entre miercoles y jueves. .Comunicado sobre informacion reportada por observadores... No se anticipa activacion de observadores, sin embargo, se recomienda a los observadores individuales que reporten corrientes marinas al Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia en San Juan mientras siguen las indicaciones de las autoridades locales y estatales.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Road 4466 near Hotel Villa Monta a was reported flooded.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Puerto Rico in 2020Every state in 2020This day in weather historyWarnings in Puerto Rico, May 2020
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 888977.