Rip Currents in Puerto Rico, March 16, 2020

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
1112 AM AST Mon Mar 16 2020

.UPDATE...
A surface low pressure over the Atlantic Ocean is approaching
from the northeast. This low pressure is bringing patches of
moisture with clouds and light rains over the local waters, north,
east Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Cloudy skies are
increasing over the interior and showers will develop later today
as this system moves closer the region. No changes were made to
the forecast package.

&&

.AVIATION...
Clouds will increase mainly across the mountain areas but VFR
conditions are expected mainly across the area. Although isolated
to scattered -SHRA/SHRA may move across or in the vicinity of local
terminals. However, no significant impact to operations is
anticipated. Winds from the N-NNE at 12 to 18 kts with higher
gusts and sea breeze variations.

&&

.MARINE...
Small craft advisories continue in effect for the Atlantic Waters
and Anegada Passage. No changes were made to the inherited
forecast.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 448 AM AST Mon Mar 16 2020/

SYNOPSIS...Surface low to our northeast will open into a trough
and move across the region from late Monday through Tuesday.
Another pulse of low level moisture moves from the east on
Wednesday. At least through Friday, shower activity will focus
across the northeastern sections of PR and across the USVI during
the overnight/morning hours, followed by afternoon showers over
southwestern PR. Breezy conditions are expected to return during
the latter part of the week due to building surface high over the
western Atlantic.

SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday...

A surface low pressure located northeast of the area will
continue to generate a northerly wind flow for today. This
northerly flow will push low-level cloud fragments across the
area and generate isolated to scattered shower activity across
portions the area. These showers are expected to be brief with
only minor accumulations expected. The areas with the highest
probability of observing these showers will be across northern and
eastern portions of Puerto Rico and the USVI.

The surface low pressure is expected to degenerate into an open
trough later today and tonight while at the same time moving
southwestward through Tuesday, with the wind flow becoming more
northeasterly. This will continue to push low-level cloud
fragments with isolated to scattered shower activity expected
across the northern and eastern portions of Puerto Rico and the
USVI, extending into southwestern portions of Puerto Rico during
the afternoon. Once again, these showers are expected to be brief
with only light rainfall accumulations.

By Wednesday, the low-level moisture is expected to increase with
precipitable water values climbing to 1.5 inches. Therefore, an
increase in the shower activity is expected, with higher rainfall
accumulations possible. The activity will be concentrated across
northern and eastern Puerto Rico and the USVI during the morning
hours followed by additional development across southwestern Puerto
Rico during the afternoon hours.

LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday...

A broad surface high pressure building over the western Atlantic
and into our area will promote a breezy northeasterly wind flow
from Thursday through Sunday. Embedded on this flow, fragmented
clouds and passing trade wind showers will move at times across
the islands, mainly on Thursday and Friday morning. A long wave
trough is forecast to move over the central Caribbean through the
long term period. However, lacking any low to mid-level support
and drier air intrusion from the north, mostly fair weather
conditions are expected to prevail during the weekend and into
early next week across the islands.

AVIATION...Mainly VFR conditions expected across the area. Iso-sct
brief SHRA may result in VCSH across the local terminals, however,
no significant impacts to operations expected. Winds from the N-NNE
less than 10 kts through 16/12z, increasing to 12 to 18 kts with
higher gusts and sea breeze variations after 16/14z.

MARINE...Small craft advisories remain in effect for the
Atlantic waters and for the Mona passage through Tuesday
afternoon. Seas between 5-7 feet and occasionally up to 9 feet are
expected across these waters. Elsewhere, seas should range between
3-6 feet. The surface low northeast of the region that is
generating the small swell and breezy(15-20 kts) northerly winds,
will gradually open into a trough and move across the region
between Tuesday and Wednesday.

Seas and winds will decrease briefly as the trough moves across
the regional waters, but a building surface high over the western
Atlantic will increase winds(20-25 kts) and seas once again from
Thursday night and through the weekend. A high rip current risk is
in effect through Tuesday for the northern beaches of Puerto
Rico.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  74  83  74  83 /  40  50  50  50
STT  75  84  74  84 /  40  40  50  50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday afternoon for North
     Central-Northeast-Northwest-San Juan and Vicinity-Southeast.

VI...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM AST Tuesday for Atlantic Waters
     of Puerto Rico and USVI from 10 NM to 19.5N-Coastal Waters
     of Northern Puerto Rico out 10 NM-Mona Passage Southward to
     17N.

&&

SHORT TERM...CAM
PUBLIC DESK...TW

Perspectivas sobre Condiciones Peligrosas del Tiempo
Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia San Juan PR
408 AM AST lunes 16 de marzo de 2020

AMZ710>745-PRZ001>013-170815-
San Juan y Vecindad-Noreste-Sureste-
Este Interior-Norte Central-Interior Central-Ponce y Vecindad-
Noroeste-Oeste Interior-Mayaguez y Vecindad-Suroeste-Culebra-Vieques-
Aguas cercanas y mar afuera del Atlantico y Caribe-
408 AM AST lunes 16 de marzo de 2020

Esta perspectiva sobre las condiciones peligrosas del tiempo es para
Puerto Rico y las aguas costeras del Atlantico.

.Dia Uno...Hoy y esta noche

.Vientos...Se esperan vientos sostenidos en exceso de 20 MPH (17
nudos) a traves de las aguas del Atlantico y el Pasaje de Mona y
porciones de la costa oeste de Puerto Rico.

.Oleaje...Se espera oleaje picado y vigoroso de hasta 7 pies a
traves de las aguas del Atlantico y el Pasaje de Mona.

.Corrientes marinas...Existe un riesgo alto de corrientes marinas
para la mayoria de las playas del norte de Puerto Rico.

.Dias dos hasta el siete...martes a domingo

Oleaje peligroso continuara hasta el martes para las aguas del
Atlantico y el Pasaje de Mona. Un riesgo alto de corrientes marinas
continuara para las playas del norte de Puerto Rico hasta el martes.
Despues de un mejoramiento breve en las condiciones maritimas el
miercoles, se espera un deterioro en el oleaje nuevamente para
finales de la semana laboral y hacia el fin de semana entrante a
traves de la mayoria de las aguas regionales a medida que los
vientos aumenten. Tambien se espera un riesgo moderado a alto de
corrientes marinas durante este periodo.

.Comunicado sobre informacion reportada por observadores...

No se anticipa activacion amplia de observadores. Sin embargo, se
les exhorta a los observadores individuales a reportar corrientes
marinas al Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia en San Juan.

AMZ710>745-PRZ001>013-170815-
San Tomas, San John y Islas Adyacentes-Santa Cruz-
Aguas cercanas del Atlantico y aguas costeras adyacentes del Caribe-
408 AM AST lunes 16 de marzo de 2020

Esta perspectiva sobre las condiciones peligrosas del tiempo es para
Islas Virgenes Estadounidenses y las aguas costeras adyacentes.

.Dia uno...Hoy y esta noche

.Vientos...Se esperan vientos sostenidos en exceso de 20 MPH (17
nudos) a traves de las aguas mar afuera del Atlantico.

.Oleaje...Se espera oleaje peligroso de hasta 7 pies a traves de las
aguas mar afuera del Atlantico. Se espera oleaje picado de hasta 6
pies a traves de las aguas costeras del Atlantico y el Pasaje de
Anegada.

.Corrientes marinas...Existe un riesgo moderado de corrientes
marinas para la mayoria de las playas locales.

.Dias dos hasta el siete...martes a domingo

Despues de un mejoramiento en las condiciones maritimas el martes y
miercoles, se espera un deterioro en el oleaje nuevamente para
finales de la semana laboral y hacia el fin de semana entrante a
traves de la mayoria de las aguas regionales a medida que los
vientos aumenten. Tambien se espera un riesgo moderado a alto de
corrientes marinas durante este periodo.

.Comunicado sobre informacion reportada por observadores...

No se anticipa activacion amplia de observadores. Sin embargo, se
les exhorta a los observadores individuales a reportar corrientes
marinas al Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia en San Juan.